信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分供需及干旱特征

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薛运宏, 刘箴, 刘继锋, 李学文, 尹周祥. 信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分供需及干旱特征[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018,30(1): 14-25.
XUE Yunhong, LIU Zhen, LIU Jifeng, LI Xuewen, YIN Zhouxiang. Characteristics of water supply-demand and drought of winter wheat during growing period in Xinyang region[J]. ACTA AGRICULTURAE ZHEJIANGENSIS, 2018,30(1): 14-25.
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信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分供需及干旱特征

薛运宏¹, 刘箴^2,^*, 刘继锋¹, 李学文³, 尹周祥³

1. 河南省信阳水文水资源勘测局,河南信阳 464000

2. 信阳市水利勘测设计院,河南信阳 464000

3. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖 241000

*通信作者,刘箴,E-mail: 1163076391@qq.com

作者简介:薛运宏(1971—),男,河南信阳人,副高级工程师,主要从事水文水资源方面研究。E-mail: 245584121@qq.com

收稿日期: 2017-06-09

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目(41571018)

摘要

旱涝灾害是影响信阳地区农业经济发展的重要因素,分析信阳地区近50 a冬小麦生育期水分供需及干旱特征,可为冬小麦生产合理布局、合理用水以及防灾减灾政策的制定提供理论参考。基于信阳地区1962—2011年9个气象站点日尺度数据,通过估算冬小麦全生育期和各生育阶段有效降水量和需水量,计算水分盈亏指数,分析水分供需时空变化特征,并利用不同时间尺度标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI)进行干旱特征研究。结果表明:冬小麦生育期需水量空间分布主要呈现西北部和东南部较高,而中部地区相对较低的特征,变化趋势以增加趋势为主;冬小麦生育期水分盈亏指数表明水分亏缺,西北部相对于中南部水分缺乏更为严重,变化趋势以减少趋势为主;冬小麦全生育期SPI值呈现不显著下降趋势,其变化幅度为0.125·10 a^-1,冬小麦冬前生长期、返青抽穗期和灌浆成熟期SPI值呈现不同程度的不显著减少趋势,而越冬期SPI值则呈现不显著的增加趋势;各生育阶段干旱发生状况存在差异,不同生育阶段轻旱发生频率和中旱发生频率亦存在差异,北部冬小麦生育期发生轻度以上干旱频率较高,西部和南部冬小麦生育期发生中度以上干旱频率较高。综上,信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分呈亏缺状态,各生育阶段的干旱状况存在差异。

关键词: 干旱; 冬小麦; 水分供需; 标准化降水指数; 信阳

中图分类号:S512.1;P467 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1004-1524(2018)01-0014-12 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2018.01.03

Characteristics of water supply-demand and drought of winter wheat during growing period in Xinyang region

XUE Yunhong¹, LIU Zhen^2,^*, LIU Jifeng¹, LI Xuewen³, YIN Zhouxiang³

1. Henan Xinyang Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Xinyang 464000, China

2. Xinyang City Water Conservancy Survey and Design Institute, Xinyang 464000, China

3. College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China

Abstract

Drought and flood are the important factors that affect the development of agricultural economy in Xinyang. Analysis of water supply-demand and drought characteristics of winter wheat nearly 50 years can provide a theoretical reference for the rational layout of yielding, reasonable water use and policy formulation for disaster prevention and mitigation of winter wheat. Based on the daily scale data of 9 meteorological stations in Xinyang area from 1962 to 2011 year, the effective precipitation and water demand in the whole growth period and the growth stage of winter wheat were estimated. The temporal and spatial characteristics of water supply and demand were analyzed in the calculation of water budget index and the analysis of drought characteristics were studied by using SPI at different time scales. The results showed that the value of the spatial distribution of water demand in winter wheat in the northwest and southeast were higher and the central region was relatively lower. In terms of trends, the change trend of time was increasing. The growth period of winter wheat water budget index showed that water deficit, and compared to the central and southern region, water deficit was more serious in the northwest. In terms of trends, the change trend of time is decreasing. The SPI value of winter wheat was not significantly decreased during the whole growth period, and the variation range was 0.125·10a^-1. There was no significant decreasing trend in the SPI value of winter wheat during the pre-winter growth period, reviving and heading period and grain-filling and ripening period, while the SPI value in the wintering period showed no significant increasing trend. There were differences in the occurrence of drought at different growth stages, and the occurrence frequency of mild drought and frequency of drought in different growth stages were also different. The mild and or more serious drought frequency in the northern region was higher than that in the northern and southern region, and the drought frequency with moderate or higher severities was higher in the western and southern region. In conclusion, the water of winter wheat in Xinyang was deficient, and the drought status of each growth stage was different.

Keyword: drought; winter wheat; water supply and demand; standardized precipitation index; Xinyang

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干旱作为一种发生频繁、影响范围广的气象灾害, 已对世界各国农业生产、人民生活和社会经济等造成严重影响^{[1, 2]}, 是人类所面临的一个重大环境问题。IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告中指出, 全球气候变暖仍将继续^[3], 气候变化大背景下, 干旱仍可能进一步加剧。农业干旱与气象干旱存在显著区别, 主要由降水异常引起, 同时与作物水分供需、作物类型及不同生育阶段也关系密切^{[4, 5]}。针对水分供需变化的研究, 国内已有很多学者针对不同区域开展了工作, 可概括为两个方面:1)内容上, 分析不同农作物需水量、水分盈亏指数的空间分布特征及时间趋势变化^{[6, 7]}; 研究气候变化背景下, 作物需水量对各气象要素的敏感性, 如降水、温度等^{[8, 9]}; 基于水分盈亏指数划分农业干旱等级, 分析干旱发生频率, 划分区域风险等级等^{[10, 11]}; 2)方法上, 利用Penman-Monteith公式、Hargreaves公式等估算参考作物蒸散量, 并结合不同生育阶段的作物系数计算需水量^{[12, 13]}, 采用有效降水系数法^[14]、USDA-SCS法^[15]等计算有效降水量, 并基于有效降水量和需水量确定水分盈亏量^{[6, 10]}; Kendall趋势系数法、气候倾向率分析参考作物蒸散量、水分盈亏量等变化趋势^{[7, 16]}, 小波分析等确定周期特征^[17]。

目前, 针对农业干旱评估的气象类指标, 主要有2大类指标:1)描述水分供应状况的指标, 包括标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index, SPI)、降水Z指数、降水距平百分率等; 2)描述水分供需状况的指标, 包括Palmer指数、相对湿润指数、水分盈亏指数等^{[18, 19]}。2类指标各有优缺点, 降水类指标涉及参数较少, 数据易获取, 可进行快速评估干旱情况; 而水分供需类指标从作物主要生长环境出发, 考虑农田湿润状况, 能更真实地反映农业干旱, 但涉及参数众多, 计算复杂, 时效性较差^[20]。

信阳属淮河流域上游地区, 是重要的粮食生产区。冬小麦作为主要农作物, 是重要的粮食、饲料和工业原料^[6]。但冬小麦生育阶段干旱频发, 严重影响生长发育和最终产量形成, 带来一定的农业经济损失^{[5, 21]}。因此, 十分有必要进行信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分供需变化和干旱特征研究, 识别各生育阶段水分供需状况和不同程度干旱发生的频率, 有利于水资源的合理利用和冬小麦的高产、稳产等。本文以信阳地区冬小麦为研究对象, 基于1962— 2011年9个气象站点气象资料, 以生育阶段为研究尺度, 分别利用USDA-SCS法计算有效降水量, P-M公式联合作物系数法计算需水量, 并计算水分盈亏量, 探讨冬小麦生育期需水量和水分盈亏量的时空变化特征; 在冬小麦干旱监测评估方面, 以不同时间尺度的SPI来表征, 以期为冬小麦高产稳产和防灾减灾提供科学依据。

1 研究区概况

以信阳市及河南省直管县固始县为研究区, 研究区位于河南省最南部, 地处东经113° 40'~115° 56', 北纬31° 28'~32° 41', 地势南高北低(图1)。研究区西部和南部分别为桐柏山和大别山, 是长江、淮河两大流域的分水岭, 属亚热带季风气候, 地处气候过渡带。1962— 2011年, 年平均降水量1 087 mm, 年平均气温15.5 ℃左右, 年平均蒸散量约1 407 mm。信阳地区以冬小麦为主要粮食作物, 在当地农业经济中占重要地位, 因其具有的特殊地理位置、气候状况和下垫面条件, 导致农业旱涝灾害频繁^[21]。此外, 研究区属淮河流域上游地区, 区内淮河支流密集, 淮河干流南侧支流河短流急, 更易发生旱涝灾害, 给农业生产带来严重影响。

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	图1 研究区数字高程模型及气象站点分布Fig.1 Digital elevation model and meteorological stations of study area

2 材料与方法

2.1 数据来源

研究区9个气象站点1962— 2011年逐日气象资料由中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供, 主要包括降水量、气温(平均、最高、最低)、日照时数、平均风速和平均相对湿度等数据, 并进行了数据质量控制。本研究以冬小麦全生育期为研究时段, 研究区冬小麦全生育期为10月下旬至翌年5月下旬, 冬前生长期为10月下旬至12月中旬, 越冬期为12月下旬至翌年2月上旬, 返青抽穗期为2月中旬至4月中旬, 灌浆成熟期为4月下旬至5月下旬^[22]。结合干旱指数SPI月尺度时间特征, 文中确定冬小麦全生育期为10月至翌年5月, 其中, 各生育阶段划分为冬前生长期(10— 11月)、越冬期(12月— 翌年1月)、返青抽穗期(2— 4月)和灌浆成熟期(5月)。

2.2 分析方法

2.2.1 水分盈亏指数

构建水分盈亏指数^[10]来表征信阳地区冬小麦各生育阶段水分供需状况, 以有效降水量为冬小麦水分供应指标, 潜在蒸散量为冬小麦需水量指标, 水分盈亏指数I计算公式如下:

I= $\begin{matrix} \frac{P_{e} - E T_{c}}{E T_{c}} \end{matrix}$ 。 (1)

式中:I为水分盈亏指数, 本研究中, 负值表示水分亏缺, 正值表示水分盈余; P_e为有效降水量, mm; ET_c为冬小麦需水量, mm。

有效降水量表示作物某生育阶段内总降水量减去地表径流量、作物截留量等, 实际为作物生长所吸收, 补充到根层土壤中的净水量, 即指总降水量中的有效部分^[15]。本研究采用在国内已得到较多学者认可的USDA-SCS法计算冬小麦有效降水量^{[7, 23]}。

P_e= $\begin{matrix} \{\begin{matrix} \frac{P (4.17 - 0.2 P)}{4.17} & (P < 8.3 mm / d) \\ 4.17 + 0.1 P & (P \geq 8.3 mm / d) \end{matrix} \end{matrix}$ 。 (2)

式中, P表示总降水量, mm· d^-1。

本研究中冬小麦的需水量即潜在蒸散量基于参考蒸散量和FAO推荐的作物系数法进行计算。

ET_c=K_c× ET₀。 (3)

式中:ET_c为冬小麦需水量, mm· d^-1; ET₀表示参考作物蒸散量, mm· d^-1; K_c为冬小麦的作物系数。本文冬小麦作物系数K_c的确定以FAO构建的小麦系数数据库为基础, 同时参考文献[6]和[22]。

本研究基于FAO修正的P-M公式进行冬小麦参考蒸散量的计算, 公式如下:

ET₀= $\begin{matrix} \frac{0.408 Δ (R_{n} - G) + γ \frac{900}{T + 273} U_{2} (e_{s} - e_{u})}{Δ + γ (1 + 0.34 U_{2})} \end{matrix}$ 。(4)

式中:ET₀表示参考作物蒸散量, mm· d^-1; R_n为地表净辐射, MJ· m^-2; Δ 为饱和水汽压曲线斜率, kPa· ℃^-1; G为土壤热通量, MJ· m^-2· d^-1; T为日平均温度, ℃; U₂为2 m高处风速, m· s^-1; e_s为饱和水汽压, kPa; e_u为实际水汽压, kPa; γ 为干湿表常数, kPa· ℃^-1。式中各参数的计算参考文献[24]。

2.2.2 标准化降水指数

SPI能够反映不同时间尺度和地区的旱涝状况及干旱的年际变化^[25]。SPI方法由McKee等^[26]于1993年提出, SPI的计算方法参照《气象干旱等级GB/T20481— 2006》国家标准。SPI指数具有多时间尺度特性, 本文主要分析冬小麦生育期内1个月、2个月、3个月和8个月时间尺度的SPI变化过程。干旱划分等级参照Mckee等^[26]与《气象干旱等级》^[27]的旱涝等级标准, 文中主要计算轻度以上干旱(SPI≤ -0.5)和中度以上干旱(SPI≤ -1.0)。

2.2.3 气候倾向率

气候倾向率指某变量的趋势变化情况, 在本研究中, 构建气候变量X_i与时间变量t_i关系的线性回归方程。

X_i=a+bt_i(i=1, 2, …, n)。 (5)

式中:X_i为气候变量; t_i为时间变量; n为样本量; a为常数; b是回归系数; b的10倍表示气候倾向率。本文中利用气候倾向率表征冬小麦生育期需水量和水分盈亏指数变化趋势。

2.2.4 Mann-Kendall(MK)检验

对信阳地区冬小麦不同生育期平均SPI值计算后, 利用MK法^[28]对冬小麦全生育期平均SPI值进行突变检验, 并对冬小麦各生育阶段和全生育期SPI值进行趋势变化显著性检验。MK法是非参数检验方法, 对数据服从的概率分布不作要求, 同时少量异常值对其没有干扰, 在气象领域的趋势分析中非常适用。本文选取显著性水平90%(阈值为± 1.64)和95%(阈值为± 1.96), 以MK值的大小与阈值作对比, 判定指数的时序变化是否存在显著性。

3 结果与分析

3.1 冬小麦生育期划分的合理性

由于SPI指数具有月尺度时间特征, 为方便其计算, 文中确定的冬小麦生育期与研究区冬小麦实际生育期存在一定的区别, 为了明确文中确定的研究区冬小麦生育期划分具有一定的合理性与代表性, 采用皮尔逊法对冬小麦实际生育期与确定生育期的平均气温、降水量之间的关系进行了分析(表1)。无论是平均气温还是降水量在冬小麦各生育期均具有较高的相关性, 且均通过了0.01的显著性检验。就2类生育期平均气温之间的相关性而言, 冬前生长期平均相关系数为0.734, 越冬期为0.744, 返青抽穗期为0.927, 灌浆成熟期为0.882, 全生育期为0.986; 2类生育期降水量之间的平均相关性在冬前生长期为0.687, 越冬期为0.692, 返青抽穗期为0.898, 灌浆成熟期为0.864, 全生育期为0.93。说明文中确定的冬小麦生育期内的平均气温和降水量在一定程度上能够代表实际生育期的平均气温及降水量状况。气温与降水是旱涝的直接表征量[29], 文中的水分盈亏指数与SPI指数的计算以气温和降水量为主。因此, 文中确定的冬小麦生育期在研究区内具有一定的代表性。

表1 冬小麦实际生育期与确定生育期降水量(P)、平均气温(T)之间的相关性 Table 1 Relationship of precipitation (P) and mean temperature (T) between actual growth period and defined growth period of winter wheat

3.2 冬小麦生育期需水量的变化特征

信阳市冬小麦1962— 2011年全生育期及各个生育阶段内需水量的空间分布如图2所示, 变化趋势见表2。全生育期内需水量多年平均值为511.3~549.9 mm, 主要呈现西部的信阳市、南部的新县以及东部的固始等地较高, 而中部地区较低的分布(图2-A), 变化趋势介于-0.9~22.2 mm· 10 a^-1, 平均值为7.73 mm· 10 a^-1; 仅息县需水量呈减少趋势, 其余地区均呈增加趋势, 其中信阳市和光山两地增加趋势速率较大, 且通过显著性水平0.05检验。冬小麦冬前生长期内需水量为85.5~95.9 mm, 主要呈现固始、新县及罗山等地较高, 其余地区相对较低的分布, 变化趋势介于0.3~5.7 mm· 10 a^-1, 平均值约2.1 mm· 10 a^-1; 各地需水量均呈增加趋势, 信阳市增加趋势速率最大, 且通过显著性水平0.05检验(图2-B)。冬小麦越冬期需水量为49.5~60.6 mm, 高值区主要分布在新县, 低值区分布在光山, 其余地区较为接近, 变化趋势介于-3.1~1.9 mm· 10 a^-1, 均值约为-0.9 mm· 10 a^-1; 仅信阳和新县需水量呈增加趋势, 其余均是减少趋势, 其中息县、罗山及潢川减少速率较大, 且均通过显著性水平0.05检验(图2-C)。冬小麦返青抽穗期需水量为222.4~241.9 mm· 10 a^-1, 主要呈现西部地区及南部的新县较高, 光山地区较低, 其余地区相对接近的分布特点, 变化趋势介于0.8~12.1 mm· 10 a^-1, 均值约为5.6 mm· 10 a^-1; 各站点均是增加趋势, 息县需水量增加趋势速率最大, 其中有44.4%的站点通过显著性水平0.05检验(图2-D)。灌浆成熟期需水量为154.0~160.6 mm, 呈现西部信阳市较高, 中部光山地区较低, 其余地区相对接近的分布特征, 变化幅度为-0.9~3.1 mm· 10 a^-1, 有44.4%的站点需水量呈现增加趋势, 其余是减少趋势, 但没有站点通过显著性水平检验(图2-E)。

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	图2 1962— 2011年冬小麦生育期需水量的空间分布Fig.2 Spatial distribution of water requirement for winter wheat from 1962 to 2011 year

表2 代表站点冬小麦生育期需水量变化趋势 Table 2 Trend of water requirement in winter wheat growth period on behalf of the site

3.3 冬小麦生育期水分盈亏变化特征

信阳地区冬小麦1962— 2011年全生育期及各生育阶段水分盈亏指数空间分布如图3所示, 变化趋势见表3。由图3可知, 全生育期内水分盈亏指数为-0.65~-0.55, 9个站点均表现为水分亏缺, 需重点防范干旱灾害的发生; 其中, 固始-光山一带以北水分亏缺严重, 南部的新县、商城等地相对较轻, 水分盈亏指数变化趋势为-0.024~-0.001, 均呈现减少趋势, 信阳市减少趋势速率最大, 且通过了显著性水平0.05的检验。总的来看, 信阳地区冬小麦各生育阶段水分盈亏指数均为负值, 表现为水分亏缺, 需防范干旱灾害的发生, 西北部相对东南部水分亏缺更为严重。另外, 小麦生长期间, 随着生育期的推进, 水分亏缺表现越来越严重, 灌浆成熟期水分严重缺乏。因此, 为保障信阳地区冬小麦高产、稳产, 需适时、适量进行灌溉。

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	图3 1962— 2011年冬小麦生育期水分盈亏指数空间分布Fig.3 Spatial distribution of water budget index in winter wheat from 1962 to 2011 year

表3 代表站点冬小麦生育期水分盈亏指数变化趋势 Table 3 Trend of water budget index in winter wheat growth period on behalf of the site

3.4 冬小麦生育期干旱特征分析

3.4.1 干旱时间变化特征分析

研究区内9个气象站点均匀分布, 具有很好的代表性。由研究区冬小麦全生育期SPI值年际变化趋势(图4-A)可知, 冬小麦全生育期SPI值下降幅度为0.125· 10 a^-1, 冬小麦整个生育期内旱涝灾害交叉出现。在95%置信度水平下, 1962— 2011年研究区冬小麦生育期SPI值没有发生突变(图4-B), 从1979年左右开始, 研究区冬小麦全生育期出现偏旱。

冬小麦不同生育期SPI值年平均值的变化幅度及MK趋势如表4所示, 全生育期、冬前生长期、返青抽穗期和灌浆成熟期平均SPI值均呈不显著下降趋势, 即有干旱趋势。冬前生长期干旱减小趋势最大, 为-0.9; 其次是全生育期, 为-0.84; 再次是返青抽穗期, 为-0.68; 最后是灌浆成熟期, 为-0.28。冬小麦越冬期变化幅度为0.077· 10 a^-1, SPI值具有不显著上升趋势, 即有湿润的变化趋势。

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	图4 研究区冬小麦全生育期平均SPI值年际变化(A)及MK突变检验(B)Fig.4 Mean SPI value interannual variation (A) and MK mutation test (B) in the whole growth period of winter wheat in the study area

表4 研究区冬小麦不同生育阶段SPI值变化幅度及MK趋势 Table 4 Changes of SPI value and MK trend at different growth stages of winter wheat in the study area

3.4.2 干旱空间分布特征分析

依据SPI指数干旱等级划分, 对研究区1962— 2011年9个气象站点冬小麦全生育期和不同生育阶段发生轻度以上干旱和中度以上干旱年数进行统计并计算频率, 采用IDW(Inverse distance weight)插值法对频率进行空间特征分析。图5为冬小麦全生育期发生轻度以上干旱频率(图5-A)和中度以上干旱频率(图5-B)空间分布状况, 研究区发生轻度以上干旱频率均在26.0%以上, 其中, 罗山与淮滨频率最高, 为30.0%; 发生中度以上干旱频率除信阳(8.0%)外, 其他地方频率均在12.0%以上, 以罗山最高(14.0%)。

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	图5 冬小麦全生育期发生轻度以上干旱(A)和中度以上干旱(B)频率分布Fig.5 Spatial distribution of drought frequency with mild or higher severities (A) and moderate or higher severities (B) in the whole growth period of winter wheat

利用IDW插值法对冬小麦不同生育期轻度以上干旱频率(图6)和中度以上干旱(图7)频率进行分析, 结果表明, 研究区冬小麦各生育期发生轻度以上干旱灾害频率均在22.0%以上, 最高为越冬期(26.0%~38.0%), 冬前生长期、越冬期和返青抽穗期息县发生轻度以上干旱频率均最高, 灌浆成熟期光山和潢川发生轻度以上干旱频率较高。研究区冬小麦各生育期发生中度以上干旱频率均在8.0%以上, 最高为冬前生长期 (16.0%~22.0%), 越冬期和灌浆成熟期淮滨发生中度以上干旱频率最高, 冬前生长期新县发生中度以上干旱频率最高, 返青抽穗期信阳市区发生中度以上干旱频率最高。

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	图6 冬小麦不同生育期发生轻度以上干旱频率空间分布Fig.6 Spatial distribution of drought frequency with mild or higher severities in different growth stages of winter wheat

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	图7 冬小麦不同生育期发生中度以上干旱频率空间分布Fig.7 Spatial distribution of drought frequency with moderate or higher severities in winter wheat at different growth stages

总体来说, 研究区冬小麦不同生育期不同地区干旱状况存在差异。研究区西部除在返青抽穗期和灌浆成熟期发生中度以上干旱频率高于其他地区以外, 各生育期发生轻度以上干旱与冬前生长期、越冬期发生中度以上干旱频率均低于其他地区。冬小麦各生育期发生轻度以上干旱主要集中在研究区北部, 发生中度以上干旱主要集中在西部和南部。同时研究区冬小麦发生轻度以上干旱主要在越冬期, 发生中度以上干旱主要在冬前生长期。

4 结论与讨论

本文基于水分盈亏指数对信阳地区冬小麦水分供需状况进行分析, 利用不同时间尺度SPI表征干旱特征, 划分出冬小麦轻度以上干旱和中度以上干旱的频率空间分布, 参照干旱标准^[30]及水分亏缺指数干旱等级的划分^{[4, 27]}。结果表明:1)1962— 2011年, 信阳地区冬小麦全生育期和各生育阶段需水量空间分布主要呈现西北部和东南部较高而中部地区相对较低的分布特征; 变化趋势方面, 除越冬期外, 均基本呈现增加趋势。2)1962— 2011年, 信阳地区冬小麦全生育期和各生育阶段水分盈亏指数均为负值, 表明水分亏缺, 且随着冬小麦生长期的推进, 水分亏缺表现为越来越严重; 变化趋势方面, 各生育阶段除越冬期呈增加趋势外, 其余生育阶段均呈现减少趋势, 整个生育期也是呈现减少的变化趋势。3)信阳地区1962— 2011年冬小麦全生育期SPI值呈现不显著下降趋势, 其变化幅度为0.125· 10 a^-1; 同时, 从1979年左右开始, 冬小麦全生育期出现偏旱。冬小麦分生育期SPI值均呈现不显著变化趋势。4)信阳地区冬小麦各生育阶段干旱发生状况存在差异, 不同生育阶段轻旱发生频率和中旱发生频率亦存在差异; 北部冬小麦生育期发生轻度以上干旱频率较高, 西部和南部冬小麦生育期发生中度以上干旱频率较高。

总体上, 水分盈亏指数表明信阳地区冬小麦生育期干旱情况属“ 正常、轻旱、中旱” 范围内, 以“ 轻旱” 状态为主。SPI分析结果也表明研究区内冬小麦各生育期发生轻度以上干旱灾害频率均在22.0%以上, 冬小麦各生育期发生中度以上干旱频率均在8.0%左右, 这2个指数分析结果较为吻合, 进一步说明信阳地区冬小麦生育期内水分供应不足。SPI指数所需资料易获取、计算方便, 同时将SPI指数结果与《中国气象灾害大典》(河南卷)进行对比分析发现, SPI值能够很好地反映信阳地区冬小麦生育期干旱状况。研究区各生育期均有偏旱趋势, 因此, 信阳地区灌溉工程需要进一步加强, 在冬小麦生育期进行适时、适量灌溉。与许莹等^[22]的研究结果相比, 本文确定的冬小麦各生育期的水分盈亏数值偏小, 水分亏缺相对严重, 原因是本文通过USDA-SCS法计算冬小麦生育期的有效降水量替代自然供水量(降水量), 有效降水量为作物生产直接或间接利用, 以及农作物生长中其他必须耗用的水量。不是所有降水量均能转化为有效降水量, 确定水分盈亏指数时计算有效降水量十分有必要, 更能反映农业干旱特征。

本文在分析冬小麦生长期内水分供需和干旱特征时, 各生育阶段的统计时段是固定的, 不同区域冬小麦的实际发育期的进程可能略有差异, 且随着气候变暖, 生育期也会发生变化。因此, 需根据研究区内冬小麦各站点生育期内调查统计资料, 准确划分各生育期的时间段。另外, 本文通过仅考虑降水因素的SPI进行冬小麦干旱特征的研究, 并未考虑作物生长环境、土壤墒情等因素, 因此, 对于冬小麦生育期干旱特征仍需进行深入研究。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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[30]	黄会平. 1994—2005年全国干旱灾害若干统计特征[J]. 气象科技, 2008, 36(5): 551-555. HUANG H P. Analysis of statistical characteristics of droughts in China from 1949 to 2005[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2008, 36(5): 551-555. (in Chinese with English abstract) [本文引用:1]

2010

0.0

... 干旱作为一种发生频繁、影响范围广的气象灾害,已对世界各国农业生产、人民生活和社会经济等造成严重影响^[1,2],是人类所面临的一个重大环境问题 ...

2002

0.0

秦大河, 丁一汇, 王绍武, 等. 中国西部生态环境变化与对策建议[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(3): 314-319.

QIN D

, DIN Y

, WANG S

, et al. Ecological and environmental change in west china and its response strategy[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2002, 17(3): 314-319. (in Chinese with English abstract)

2014

0.0

秦大河, THOMAS

, 259名作者和TSU(驻尼泊尔和北京). IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(1): 1-6.

QIN D

, THOMAS

, 259Auther and TSU (Bern &Beijing. Highlights of the IPCC working group I fifth assessment report[J]. Progressus Inquisttiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2014, 10(1): 1-6. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are the essence refined from the researches in the field of climate change physical science in the past seven years. More than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature since the 1950s was caused by the human influence. Nighty-three percent of the energy resulting from the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since 1971 is stored in the ocean. Besides, ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic CO 2 , causing the decrease in pH of ocean surface by 0.1, etc. Based on the CMIP5 models, it is projected that global warming will continue. Relative to 1986-2005, the global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century will increase by 0.3~4.8℃. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Controlling the warming caused by anthropogenic CO 2 emissions alone with a probability of >66% to less than 2℃ since the period 1861-1880, will require cumulative CO 2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1000 Gt C since that period.

1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2 China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 3 University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland

IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第一工作组（WGI）报告的亮点结论，是过去7年全世界气候变化科学研究成果凝练出来的精华。20世纪50年代以来全球气候变暖的一半以上是人类活动造成的。1971年以来人为排放温室气体产生热量的93%进入了海洋，海洋还吸收了大约30%人为排放的CO 2 ，导致海表水pH值下降了0.1，等等。采用全球耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的模式，预估未来全球气候变暖仍将持续，21世纪末全球平均地表温度在1986—2005年的基础上将升高0.3～4.8℃。限制气候变化需要大幅度持续减少温室气体排放。如果将1861—1880年以来人为CO 2 累积排放控制在1000 GtC，那么人类有超过66%的可能性把未来升温幅度控制在2℃以内（相对1861—1880年）。

... IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告中指出,全球气候变暖仍将继续^[3],气候变化大背景下,干旱仍可能进一步加剧 ...

2012

0.0

高晓容, 王春乙, 张继权, 等. 近50年东北玉米生育阶段需水量及旱涝时空变化[J]. 农业工程学报, 2012, 28(12): 101-109.

GAO X

, WANG C

, ZHANG J

, et al. Crop water requirement and temporal-spatial variation of drought and flood disaster during growth stages for maize in Northeast during past 50 years[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2012, 28(12): 101-109. (in Chinese with English abstract)

It is essential to comprehensively analyze the rules of water demand and supply and the variation of drought-flood disaster of growth stages for maize in Northeast China over the recent 50 years to provide theoretical basis for strategies of preventing and reducing disasters. The multivariate data including daily meteorological data during 1961-2010, maize growing records over the past 20 years, and agriculture disaster data in the recent 10 years for 48 agro-meteorological observation stations across Northeast China were used. Based on these data, the water requirement of the four growth stages were calculated using crop coefficient method to reveal the temporal-spatial distribution of maize water supply and demand over Northeast China. The drought-flood distribution and evolvement of maize during different growth stages in Northeast of the recent 50 years were analyzed using the crop water surplus deficit index as the assessment index. Results showed that the water demand of maize during the four growth stages and the whole growing period didn’t have an appreciable change. There was a significant aridity tendency during milky ripening to maturation, while during the other three stages and the whole growth period there were no significant changes of drought or flood. Different spatial distribution patterns of water demand were found for the four growth stages, with a band distribution. From sowing to seven-leaf period, the frequency of middle drought or above and middle flood or above was lower, while during the followed three growth stages, the frequency was higher. Widespread and regional middle drought or above and middle flood or above of growth stages had obvious decadal changes. From 1980s, the number of widespread and regional middle drought or above and middle flood or above increased significantly.

分析近50?a东北玉米生育阶段的水分供需及旱涝变化，可以为防灾减灾对策的制定提供理论依据。该文基于东北地区48个农业气象观测站1961－2010年逐日气象资料、近20多年玉米生育期资料及近10?a农业灾情多元数据，利用作物系数法计算4个生育阶段的需水量，揭示东北玉米4个生育阶段水分供需的时空规律；以作物水分盈亏指数为评价指标，分析近50?a东北玉米不同生育阶段的旱涝分布及演变。结果表明：东北玉米4个生育阶段及全生育期的需水量没有显著变化；乳熟-成熟阶段，有显著的干旱化趋势，其它3个阶段和全生育期没有明显的旱涝变化。4个生育阶段需水量空间差异较大，基本呈带状分布。播种-七叶期，中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害频率较低；后3个生育阶段，中旱及以上、中涝及以上灾害频率较高，且全域、区域旱涝现象呈明显的年代际变化特征，从20世纪80年代起全域、区域中旱及以上、中涝及以上次数明显增加。

... 农业干旱与气象干旱存在显著区别,主要由降水异常引起,同时与作物水分供需、作物类型及不同生育阶段也关系密切^[4,5] ...

... 4 结论与讨论本文基于水分盈亏指数对信阳地区冬小麦水分供需状况进行分析,利用不同时间尺度SPI表征干旱特征,划分出冬小麦轻度以上干旱和中度以上干旱的频率空间分布,参照干旱标准^[30]及水分亏缺指数干旱等级的划分^[4,27] ...

2009

0.0

马晓群, 吴文玉, 张辉. 农业旱涝指标及在江淮地区监测预警中的应用[J]. 应用气象学报, 2009, 20(2): 186-194.

MA X

, WU W

, ZHANG

. The agricultural drought and flood index and its operational application to monitoring and early-warning in Jianghuai area[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2009, 20(2): 186-194. (in Chinese with English abstract)

An accumulated humidity index is introduced as agricultural drought and flood indicator and can be applied to operation. The index bases on the relative humidity index, replacing evapotranspiration with the crop water requirements, and the influence of former drought and flood status to current ones is considered too. Each component’s time efficiency and effect weight varies on different temperature condition. The effect weight of every ten days are also different.The reference evapotranspiration is estimated and calibrated using temperature data of actual measurement, and errors are eliminated to meet application requirement, thus FAO Penman Monteith is available for operation. The macroscopical crop water requirements is obtained by compositive crop coefficients in different region, also the grades of drought and flood index of a ten day period in the humid and semi humid zones are established.Used in agricultural drought and flood monitoring, and the qualitative coincident between this index and the soil moisture indices reaches 80%—90%, and quantitative coincident percentage is 60%—70%. The soil moisture data of longer serial stations are more consistent with accumulated humidity index than with regional survey result; normal and relative normal drought and flood grade leads to the highest coincident rate, drought the second, while flood leads to a relative low result. Since there is great difference between the soil moisture and cumulated humidity index in the monitoring aging and means, 10%—20% errors can be considered acceptable. Considering the index of the coincident ratio for stations, every grade samples proportion of total and its coincident ratio, the accumulated humidity index reflects soil moisture status in general.This index is used in agricultural drought and flood early warning, the reliability of which is influenced by medium term forecast. It contains former droughts and flood facts, making the trend relatively accurate on the whole. Considering the operation requirement, the early warning precision still needs improvement. On one hand, the day to day data can be obtained by analyzing information of middle term precipitation course prediction; on the other hand, statistical method is used to predict the index on basis of temporal characteristics analysis, to adjust the error of precipitation prediction, and improve the accuracy of agricultural drought and flood early warning.The agricultural drought and flood are primary agrometeorological disasters in China, so the monitoring and the early warning operation is a key agrometeorological job. At present, there are indexes on agricultural drought and flood such as soil moisture index, remote sensing index and meteorological index. But considering the complexity of agricultural drought and flood, the above indexes each has advantage and weakness, therefore strengthening research on compositive technique for the agricultural drought and flood is necessary.

该文提出了一个可业务应用的农业旱涝监测预警气象指标——累积湿润指数。该指标以相对湿润度指数为基础，用作物需水量取代参考作物蒸散量，并考虑前期旱涝程度对当前旱涝状况的累积影响，具有农业意义。为方便农业气象业务应用,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型的简化方法计算参考作物蒸散量，用气温资料对简化式进行校准，将误差减小到可满足应用要求；通过求算不同区域农田作物系数的加权平均值，得到宏观农田作物需水量，并确定了该指标分区域的旬旱涝等级标准。该指标用于旱涝监测，与土壤墒情的定性符合率为80%～90%，定量符合率为60%～70%，在旬时间尺度比土壤墒情指标更符合旱涝实况；用于下一旬旱涝预警，尽管受到中期降水量预报准确度影响，但由于含有前期旱涝实况信息，预警趋势大体正确，提高了旱涝预警的准确度。

... 农业干旱与气象干旱存在显著区别,主要由降水异常引起,同时与作物水分供需、作物类型及不同生育阶段也关系密切^[4,5] ...

... 但冬小麦生育阶段干旱频发,严重影响生长发育和最终产量形成,带来一定的农业经济损失^[5,21] ...

2013

0.0

王晓东, 马晓群, 许莹, 等. 淮河流域主要农作物全生育期水分盈亏时空变化分析[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(3): 665-672.

WANG X

, MA X

, XU

, et al. Temporal analysis of the crop water surplus deficit index for the whole growth period in the Huaihe Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(3): 665-672. (in Chinese with English abstract)

利用淮河流域171个站点1971年-2010年的气象资料及作物历年生育期资料,通过作物全生育期的需水量和有效降水量计算了主要作物全生育期的水分盈亏指数.结果表明:①淮河流域小麦种植区全生育期水分盈亏指数分区平均值在-0.66～-0.43之间,各分区均呈现水分亏缺,但多年变化趋势不明显,空间分布呈明显的纬向分布特征,越往北水分亏缺越明显;②玉米种植区全生育期水分盈亏指数分区平均值在0.05～0.17之间,各区多年变化均呈增加趋势,其中北部平原夏玉米区和中部平原夏玉米区增加趋势通过了α=0.05显著性检验,分别达到0.099/10a和0.097/10a,空间分布呈西北-东南分布特征,由西北向东南增大;③沿淮及以南一季稻区水分盈亏指数平均为0.05,呈现0.024/10a的增加趋势,空间分布呈中间小两头大的分布特征.

... 针对水分供需变化的研究,国内已有很多学者针对不同区域开展了工作,可概括为两个方面:1)内容上,分析不同农作物需水量、水分盈亏指数的空间分布特征及时间趋势变化^[6,7] ...

... 2)方法上,利用Penman-Monteith公式、Hargreaves公式等估算参考作物蒸散量,并结合不同生育阶段的作物系数计算需水量^[12,13],采用有效降水系数法^[14]、USDA-SCS法^[15]等计算有效降水量,并基于有效降水量和需水量确定水分盈亏量^[6,10] ...

... 冬小麦作为主要农作物,是重要的粮食、饲料和工业原料^[6] ...

... 本文冬小麦作物系数K_c的确定以FAO构建的小麦系数数据库为基础,同时参考文献[6]和[22] ...

2015

0.0

... Kendall趋势系数法、气候倾向率分析参考作物蒸散量、水分盈亏量等变化趋势^[7,16],小波分析等确定周期特征^[17] ...

... 本研究采用在国内已得到较多学者认可的USDA-SCS法计算冬小麦有效降水量^[7,23] ...

2015

0.0

雒新萍, 夏军. 气候变化背景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(1): 38-43.

LUO X

, XIA

. Study on the sensitivity of wheat water requirement under future climate change[J]. Progressus Inquisttiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2015, 11(1): 38-43. (in Chinese with English abstract)

By using CROPWAT model, the wheat water requirement in 1961-2010 and 2020s (2020-2029) under IPCC RCPs scenarios were simulated. Defining the change rate of wheat water requirement as a sensitive factor, the sensitivity of wheat water requirement in China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were discussed. The results showed that the mean annual wheat water requirement in China was 105.64 billion m 3 and the highest value was located in Huang-Huai-Hai regions. Wheat water requirement in most areas of China tends to be sensitive to climate change. The highly and extremely sensitive regions in terms of wheat water requirement will be distributed in North and Northwest China. And the lightly sensitive areas will be distributed in Northeast China and Yungui Plateau, while in the middle and south of China, the wheat water requirement will not be sensitive to climate change. Moreover, the sensitivity spatial distribution of wheat water requirement is different under various RCP emission scenarios, while the lightly and moderately sensitive areas in terms of wheat water requirement under RCP8.5 scenario become larger significantly than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

利用CROPWAT作物模型模拟分析了过去50年（1961—2010年）及IPCC RCPs情景下未来2020年代（2020—2029年）中国小麦需水量的变化情况。在此基础上，以小麦需水量的变化率作为敏感性因子，对RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性进行了探讨。结果表明：中国小麦多年平均需水量约为1056.4亿m 3 ，最高值位于黄淮海地区。小麦需水量对气候变化的敏感性存在空间差异，华北和西北地区是小麦需水量的重度和极度敏感区，东北地区以及云贵高原地带是小麦需水量的轻度敏感区，而中国中部及南方部分地区的小麦需水量对气候变化不敏感。不同RCP排放情景下小麦需水量的敏感性分布不同，RCP8.5高排放情景下的小麦需水量敏感性区域比RCP4.5中排放情景下明显扩大，轻度和中度敏感区域扩大尤为明显。

... 研究气候变化背景下,作物需水量对各气象要素的敏感性,如降水、温度等^[8,9] ...

2004

0.0

刘晓英, 林而达. 气候变化对华北地区主要作物需水量的影响[J]. 水利学报, 2004, 35(2): 77-82.

LIU X

, LIN E

. Impact of climate change on water requirement of main crops in North China[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2004, 35(2): 77-82. (in Chinese with English abstract)

This paper examined the impact of given temperature scenario on water requirment of the main crops in North China. It shows that climate change will have great impact on water requirement of winter wheat, followed by cotton, and the least impact on summer maize. It indicates that winter wheat shows poorly in adapting the future climate change. Contrarily, summer maize and cotton show relatively adaptability to the climate. The magnitude of impact is spatial dependent. Climate change will have the greates impct on crops in Jinan, Shangdong Province and will have the least impact on crops in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province. According to the current planting planning in North China, the given temperature scenario will cause an additional water requirement of 1.47×10.9～19 1×10 9m 3 for winter wheat,5. 87×10 .8～68 6×10.8m3 for summer maize and 1 35×10. 8～16 5×10.8m3 for cotton, making the situation of water shortage more severe.

在未来温度上升1～4℃的情景下，研究了气候变暖对我国华北地区主要作物需水量的影响。结果显示，气候变暖对不同作物需水量的影响程度不同。其中对冬小麦需水量的影响最大，对棉花的影响次之，对夏玉米的影响最小。当生长期内温度上升1～4℃时，冬小麦需水量将增加2.6%～28.2%，相当于11.8～153.0mm；夏玉米需水量将增加1.7%～18.1%，相当于7.2～84 1mm；棉花需水量将增加1.7%～18.3%，相当于7.9～96 2mm。说明冬小麦对未来气候变暖的适应能力很差，而夏玉米和棉花的适应能力相对较强。气候变化对作物需水量的影响存在一定地域性差异。其中对济南的作物需水量影响最大。当温度增加1～4℃时，冬小麦、夏玉米、棉花需水量将依次增加15.4～153.0mm、8.3～84.1mm、9.6～96.2mm。对太原的作物需水量影响最小。当温度上升1～4℃时，3种作物的需水量依次增加11.7～114.5mm、6.9～68.3mm、7.9～78.0mm，比济南分别低24%～２５％、17%～19%和18%～19%。按华北地区目前的种植结构估算，温度上升1～4℃将使整个地区冬小麦的需水增加14.7～191亿m 3；夏玉米的需水增加5.87～68.6亿m3；棉花的需水增加1.35～16.5亿m 3。未来气候变暖将使华北地区业已紧张的水资源供需矛盾将更加突出。

... 研究气候变化背景下,作物需水量对各气象要素的敏感性,如降水、温度等^[8,9] ...

2013

0.0

张玉芳, 王明田, 刘娟, 等. 基于水分盈亏指数的四川省玉米生育期干旱时空变化特征分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2013, 21(2): 236-242.

ZHANG Y

, WANG M

, LIU

, et al. Spatio-temporal characteristics of drought at different maize growth stages in Sichuan Province as determined by water budget index[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2013, 21(2): 236-242. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Maize, as a major grain crop in Sichuan, has contributed significantly to total grain production in the province. Sichuan Province has a complex topography and various landforms where droughts have posed serious threat to crop production. Drought is therefore a critical factor that has limited the development, growth and yield formation of maize in Sichuan. It has frequently occurred with an increasing severity in the spring and summer, and has caused the unstable yearly maize production. This paper analyzed spatio-temporal distribution of drought at different maize growth stages in order to lay the scientific basis for relevant departmental development of agricultural production programs and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies which would guide insurance agencies in formulating agricultural insurance premium rates. Daily meteorological data, collected from 144 stations in main corn production regions in Sichuan during 1970-2010, were used to calculate water budget index as an indicator for drought during corn growth season. Spatio-temporal variations in drought frequency and drought risk distribution were analyzed for each corn growth stage in 6 six main production regions (hilly area of southern basin, hilly area of central basin, plain and hill areas of western basin, mountain area around basin, equal ridge-valley region of eastern basin and mountain area of southwest Sichuan) of Sichuan Province. The results showed that since the late 1990s, drought frequency had increased in most corn production regions. The changes in drought frequency with time, however, varied from region to region. With the exception of the eastern basin, station-based mean drought frequency during maize jointing to milk-ripening stage increased across the regions. Also station-based mean drought frequency during maize milk-ripening to maturity stage increased in the southern and western basins and the basin edge. For the entire maize cultivation region in Sichuan, mild to strong drought was more prevalent than severe drought. While mild drought was most common in the hilly area of the southern basin, strong drought was prevalent in the shallow hilly area of the central basin. More severe droughts were less frequent in the low hilly areas of the western basin and in the paralleled ridge valley areas of the eastern basin. Severe drought was most frequent in the hilly areas of the southern basin of Sichuan. The risk of drought was high in the central basin and across most of the eastern basin and parts of the southern basin during corn growth season. Between jointing and milking stage, the risk of drought was high in the northern basin and across most of the central basin. From milk to maturity, there was high risk of drought during corn growth season in the north and southeast of the basin and parts of the central basin.

四川省地形地貌复杂多样, 常年多旱灾, 玉米是该省主要粮食作物之一, 在粮食生产中占有重要地位, 但干旱一直是制约四川省玉米生长发育和产量形成的重要因素, 常年春、夏、伏旱频发重发, 造成玉米年际间产量不稳定。评估四川省玉米生育期干旱状况, 分析其时空变化特征, 可为相关部门制定农业生产计划、防灾减灾措施以及保险部门确定保费率提供科学依据。本文利用四川省144个玉米种植区气象台站1970-2010年逐日气象数据, 以水分盈亏指数作为干旱指标, 分析四川省6大玉米种植区域(盆南丘陵区、盆中浅丘区、盆西平丘区、盆周边缘山地区、盆东平行岭谷区和川西南山地区)玉米生育期内干旱频率的时空变化特征及干旱发生风险度的空间分布。结果表明: 从时间变化看, 各区域干旱频率变化趋势不同, 但大部区域从20世纪90年代后期开始明显增加, 其中拔节-乳熟期干旱站均次数变化趋势除盆东平行岭谷区随年代呈下降趋势, 其余各区都呈上升趋势, 乳熟-成熟期干旱站均次数变化趋势盆南丘陵区、盆西平丘区及盆周边缘山地区呈明显上升趋势; 从空间分布看, 盆南丘陵区轻旱发生次数最高, 盆中浅丘区中旱发生次数最高, 盆西平丘区及盆东平行岭谷区发生干旱次数相对较低; 干旱发生风险度空间分布为: 全生育期干旱风险重度区主要集中在盆中浅丘区、盆东平行岭谷区大部及盆南丘陵区部分区域, 拔节-乳熟期重度风险区主要集中在盆地北部及盆中浅丘区大部, 乳熟-成熟期重度干旱区域分布在盆北、盆东南及盆中浅丘区部分区域。

... 基于水分盈亏指数划分农业干旱等级,分析干旱发生频率,划分区域风险等级等^[10,11] ...

... 构建水分盈亏指数^[10]来表征信阳地区冬小麦各生育阶段水分供需状况,以有效降水量为冬小麦水分供应指标,潜在蒸散量为冬小麦需水量指标,水分盈亏指数I计算公式如下: ...

2009

0.0

黄晚华, 杨晓光, 曲辉辉, 等. 基于作物水分亏缺指数的春玉米季节性干旱时空特征分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(8): 28-34.

HUANG W

, YANG X

, QU H

, et al. Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristic on seasonal drought of spring maize based on crop water deficit index[J]. Transactions of the CSAE, 2009, 25(8): 28-34. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Seasonal drought is the most prominent meteorological disaster which affects spring maize production in Hunan Province. Therefore, analyzing its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and occurring rules are important to provide technical supports for the development and reasonable layout of maize production in Hunan Province. Weather data of 96 stations from 1961 to 2007 were used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and crop water requirement (ETc) of maize by the method of Penman-Monteith formula commended by FAO(1998). In this paper, effects of surplus water on crop water deficit index (CWDI) were considered, and the calculating method of CWDI was modified. The frequencies of different classes of drought were calculated and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed by the modified method of CWDI subsequently. Typical stations in different regions were selected to analyze the inter-decade variations of modified CWDI. Results indicated there were significant seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics. Drought occurred in high frequency at the stage of tasselling to silking and thereafter. Drought frequency obviously increased with backwards shift of growth stage. Light drought happened in higher frequency than medium and severe drought. In space, drought occurred with the highest frequency in Hengyang and its surrounding area in mid-south part of Hunan, followed with the east and north part, and low frequency region located in west part. Drought was more serious in 1980s, and became light in 1990s.

季节性干旱是影响湖南春玉米生产最突出的气象灾害，分析其时空分布特征和发生的规律，可为湖南春玉米生产的发展和合理布局提供技术支持。该文基于湖南省96个气象站点1961－2007年地面气象观测资料，采用FAO于1998年推荐的Penman-Monteith 方法计算了参考作物蒸散量、玉米的作物需水量。考虑盈余降水对水分亏缺指数的影响，修正了的水分亏缺指数计算方法，并依据玉米的水分亏缺指数，分析了季节性干旱发生频率的时空特征。并选取不同区域典型站点分析了水分亏缺指数年代际变化特征。结果表明，湖南春玉米生长季节内干旱呈现明显的季节性和空间区域分布特征：干旱频率较高的时段主要在玉米抽雄－吐丝阶段及其后的生育阶段，且随生育期后移干旱频率明显增加，以轻旱程度为主。空间分布特征是以湘中南的衡阳及周边一带干旱频率最高，其次为湘东、湘北一带次高，湘西等地春玉米干旱频率低。各年代之间比较，以20世纪80年代干旱较严重，90年代干旱相对较轻。

... 基于水分盈亏指数划分农业干旱等级,分析干旱发生频率,划分区域风险等级等^[10,11] ...

2014

0.0

冯克鹏, 田军仓. Hargreaves公式计算宁夏地区参考作物腾发量的研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2014, 28(9): 100-105.

FENG K

, TIAN J

. Estimation of evapotranspiration in Ningxia by Hargreaves equation [[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2014, 28(9): 100-105. (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要： Penman-Monteith公式计算ET0需要大量的气象数据,而这些数据在一些地区尤其是不发达地区缺测情况较多。Hargreaves公式是FAO推荐的在只有气温数据情况下,估算ET0的方法,但在应用时需要对其进行修正。文中利用国家气象数据共享服务网提供的宁夏24个气象站长系列逐旬气象资料（1951-1999年）,分别用Penman-Monteith公式,Hargreaves公式计算参考作物腾发量,然后通过回归分析确定出宁夏每一个气象站所代表区域应用Hargreaves公式时的经验系数,提出修正后的Hargreaves计算公式;并用2000-2012年的气象数据对修正后的Hargreaves公式进行验证。结果表明：1）未修正的Hargreaves公式,在宁夏地区的适用性较差,与Penman-Monteith公式计算值对比差异显著。2）修正后的Hargreaves公式计算精度显著提高,与Penman-Monteith公式计算结果有很好的拟合,可见,利用修正后的Hargreaves公式替代PM公式计算宁夏地区参考作物腾发量是可行的。

2015

0.0

刘钰, 谭军利, 李王成, 等. 吉林四平地区玉米和大豆灌溉需水量分析[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2015, 13(5): 648-652.

LIU

, TAN J

, LI Y

, et al. Analysis of irrigation water requirement for maize and soybean in Siping region and Jilin Province[J]. South-to north Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2015, 13(5): 648-652. (in Chinese with English abstract)

2014

0.0

张建军, 王晓东. 淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏时空变化分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(21): 100-105.

ZHANG J

, WANG X

. Spatial-temporal analysis of the water surplus deficit index for summer corn’s key period in the Huaihe Basin[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2014, 30(21): 100-105. (in Chinese with English abstract)

In order to analyze the water surplus deficit index for the summer corn’s key period in the Huaihe Basin, and provide the scientific guidance for the government strategy and farmers’ field management and agricultural production. Based on meteorology data from 121 sites from 1971 to 2010 in the Huaihe Basin, the crop water requirement and effective precipitation of the summer corn’s key period were calculated. The characteristic of water surplus and deficit was analyzed by water surplus deficit index. The results showed that the water requirement of summer corn’s key period showed an obvious downward trend, the descending rate of south was higher than north of the Huaihe Basin. While the descending rate of plain was higher than mountainous area. In space, the mean value of water requirement of summer corn’s key period showed an obvious latitudinal distribution, and it increased from north to south. The precipitation of summer corn’s key period had the tendency of increase, but not significant, and the mean value of precipitation in the south part of Huaihe Basin was more than that in the north, and more in the mountainous than in the plain. The effective precipitation had the same space distribution characteristics with the precipitation in corn-growing regions. The average water surplus deficit index for summer corn’s key period of each region showed a water deficit, but the tendency of yearly variation was increase. The space distribution characteristic of the mean value water surplus deficit showed an increasing trend from southwest to northeast. The water deficit was serious in the northern plain area. In this paper, we only analyzed water surplus characteristics for the summer corn’s key period, and the influence of pre precipitation was not considered. The results were preliminary, and the water surplus characteristics of summer corn require in-depth analysis in the future.

为分析淮河流域夏玉米关键期水分盈亏状况及其变化特征，为政府决策部门和农业生产者及时合理地开展田间管理和农业生产提供科学依据，利用淮河流域121个站点1971-2010年的气象资料，通过对夏玉米关键期的需水量和有效降水量的估算，采用水分盈亏指数分析了淮河流域各夏玉米种植区的水分盈亏特征。结果表明：淮河流域各种植区夏玉米关键期的需水量呈显著下降趋势，下降速度呈现出南部高于北部、平原高于山区的特点；多年平均的夏玉米关键期需水量表现出明显的纬向空间分布特征，由北向南增加。各种植区夏玉米关键期的降水量不显著增加，多年平均的夏玉米关键期降水量大致呈现南部多于北部、山区多于平原的空间分布特点；各种植区有效降水量与降水量的空间分布特点一致。各种植区夏玉米关键期均存在不同程度的水分亏缺，但水分盈亏指数呈不明显的增加趋势，水分亏缺的程度有缓和的趋势；多年平均的水分盈亏指数空间分布特征为自西南向东北增加，中部平原区大部分地区水分亏缺严重。

2014

0.0

胡玮, 严昌荣, 李迎春, 等. 气候变化对华北冬小麦生育期和灌溉需水量的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2014, 34(9): 2367-2377.

, YAN C

, LI Y

, et al. Impacts of climate change on winter wheat growing period and irrigation water requirements in the North China Plain[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2014, 34(9): 2367-2377. (in Chinese with English abstract)

This paper investigated impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirement for winter wheat with consideration to growing period in the North China Plain(NCP), benefitting to make irrigation scheduling and adaptive strategy. Based on data from 4 typical meteorology stations including Beijing Miyun and Shijiazhuang Nangong stations in the west and Tianjin Baodi and Xingtai Nangong stations in the east and phenology data of winter wheat during 1981 to 2010, the objective of this study is to investigate impacts of climate change on winter wheat irrigation water requirements in growth stages. The results showed that the dates of sowing stage and seeding stage delayed and the more variation of trend was at high latitudes, while the others showed an advanced trend. Then the spatial variation of irrigation water requirement in the NCP was decreasing from south to north in the past 30 years. And in temporal distribution study, there was a marked increase in east, but it was opposite in west area. The irrigation water requirement during the different growth stages made a different change with time. Except for a slight rise during the seeding to jointing stage in two stations and milky to maturity, the irrigation water requirements were reduced during the other growth periods. In the whole growth stages, the west sites were decreased by 6.72 mm/10a and 8.3 mm/10a, respectively. However, in the east sites, there was an increasing tendency of irrigation water requirements with 2.6 mm/10a and 7.08 mm/10a, respectively. Besides the order of annual fluctuation was: sowing to seeding stage > milky to maturity > heading to milk stage > jointing to heading stage > seeding to jointing stage > sowing to maturity. The influence of different meteorological elements on irrigation water requirement was relatively various. The relationship between irrigation water requirement and effective precipitation and related humidity was negative significant, to the contrary, the impact of wind speed, sunshine duration and mean temperature was positive. And correlation was slightly negative between irrigation water requirement and growth period length. The consequence would be more precise if growth period length was taken into consideration in the formula. Therefore, the main climatic factors influencing the irrigation water requirements were different in each growth stage. The prior impact factor was related humidity in jointing to heading stage, while the main factors were different between Beijing Miyun station and others even during the same period of heading to milky stage due to the different districts, which were mean temperature and related humidity, respectively. But for other growth stages, the influence of effective precipitation on irrigation water requirement was more important than other factors. Thus the results could become more realistic, which provided theoretical basis for the reasonable irrigation system and strategies of adapting to climate change.

利用华北4个气象站点1981-2010年冬小麦的生育期数据和气象资料，研究了华北平原典型区域冬小麦在气候变化条件下的生育期及各生育阶段灌溉需水量。结果表明：（1）过去30a来，华北地区冬小麦播种期和出苗期均有推迟趋势，且高纬度站点的变化趋势明显，其他生育期则呈提前趋势，而冬小麦全生育期表现为缩短；（2）华北冬小麦灌溉需水量在空间上从北到南、自东向西逐渐递减趋势；在时间上，东西部地区灌溉需水量变化趋势相反，东部地区呈逐渐增加趋势，而西部地区呈减小趋势；（3）冬小麦生育阶段的灌溉需水量变化不相同，播种-出苗、拔节-抽穗和抽穗-乳熟期灌溉需水量表现为减少趋势，而出苗-拔节和乳熟-成熟期则表现为增加趋势。就冬小麦整个生育期而言，华北西部地区灌溉需水量（北京密云站和石家庄栾城站）有减少趋势，分别减少6.72mm/10a和8.3mm/10a；而华北东部地区（天津宝坻站和邢台南宫站）的趋势正好相反，分别增加2.6mm/10a和7.08mm/10a。6个生育阶段灌溉需水量的年际波动程度依次为：播种-出苗期 > 乳熟-成熟期 > 抽穗-乳熟期 > 拔节-抽穗期 > 出苗-拔节期 > 播种-成熟期；（4）气象要素对灌溉需水量的影响较复杂，其中灌溉需水量同有效降水量、相对湿度呈负相关，且相关关系极显著，与生育期长度存在微负相关关系，与日照时数、平均温度和风速呈显著正相关。同时，影响各生育阶段灌溉需水量的气象要素也存在差异，主要包括有效降水量、相对湿度和风速等。

... 有效降水量表示作物某生育阶段内总降水量减去地表径流量、作物截留量等,实际为作物生长所吸收,补充到根层土壤中的净水量,即指总降水量中的有效部分^[15] ...

2017

0.0

金菊良, 宋占智, 蒋尚明, 等. 基于云模型的淮北平原参考作物蒸散量时空分布[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2017, 15(1): 26-33.

JIN J

, SONG Z

, JIANG S

, et al. Spatiotemporal distribution of potential evapotranspiration in Huaibei Plain based on cloud model[J]. South-to North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2017, 15(1): 26-33. (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：传统的时空分布分析方法仅可以描述参考作物蒸散量(ET0)的平均时空分布情况,难以对ET0时空分布的离散程度与稳定性进行量化。根据安徽淮北平原5个站点的气象数据与地理信息资料,采用彭曼2蒙特斯公式计算ET0,基于云模型分析了其时空分布特征。结果表明:年ET0呈下降趋势,春、冬季增长,夏、秋季减小;年ET0空间分布较为均匀,季节ET0空间分布不均匀;2004年较为分散而不稳定,1956年较集中而稳定;阜阳站较为分散而不稳定,宿县站较集中而稳定;ET0时间变化的离散程度相对于空间分布较小,稳定性相近。因此,基于云模型分析ET0时空分布特性可行、有效,研究结果可为淮北平原不同作物蒸散发以及旱灾、灌溉等研究提供科学参考。

... Kendall趋势系数法、气候倾向率分析参考作物蒸散量、水分盈亏量等变化趋势^[7,16],小波分析等确定周期特征^[17] ...

2013

0.0

... Kendall趋势系数法、气候倾向率分析参考作物蒸散量、水分盈亏量等变化趋势^[7,16],小波分析等确定周期特征^[17] ...

2015

0.0

刘宪锋, 朱秀芳, 潘耀忠, 等. 农业干旱监测研究进展与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(11): 1835-1848.

LIU X

, ZHU X

, PAN Y

, et al. Agricultural drought monitor: Progress, challenges and prospect[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(11): 1835-1848. (in Chinese with English abstract)

本文全面分析了农业干旱的概念内涵及其与其他干旱类型之间的关系,进而从基于站点监测和基于遥感监测两个方面,系统梳理了国内外农业干旱监测的近今进展,对比了不同干旱监测指标的适用范围和局限性;同时,通过文献统计和重要文献引用揭示了国内外农业干旱监测研究的发展历程和最新进展,即农业干旱监测指标从传统的单一气象监测指标逐渐向气象与遥感相结合的综合监测指标转变.最后,在分析农业干旱监测现有挑战和困境的基础上,将农业干旱监测未来发展趋向归纳为5点展望,即进一步明晰农业干旱发生机理和受旱过程、识别农业干旱影响因素及其相互作用关系、构建多时空尺度农业干旱监测模型、耦合农业干旱定性表征与定量评估模型以及提高农业干旱监测模型中遥感数据的应用水平.

... 2)描述水分供需状况的指标,包括Palmer指数、相对湿润指数、水分盈亏指数等^[18,19] ...

2015

0.0

龙贻东, 梁川, 詹存. 近50年川中丘陵区的季节性干旱时空变化特征[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2015, 13(6): 853-858.

LONG Y

, LIANG

, ZHAN

. Spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal drought in hilly area of central Sichuan in recent 50 years[J]. South-to North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2015, 13(6): 853-858. (in Chinese with English abstract)

近年来川中丘陵区季节性干旱频繁发生,对四川省农业生产造成严重影响。根据川中丘陵区8个气象站点1960年—2011年的逐日气象资料,选用国家标准中相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标,采用线性趋势法、morlet小波及反距离加权插值法,研究川中丘陵区季节性干旱频率和强度的时空分布特征。研究结果表明:川中丘陵区不同季节干旱频率和强度差异大,春冬两季的干旱频率和强度显著大于夏秋两季,干旱发生主要集中在春冬两季;时间上,春旱和秋旱呈加重趋势,夏旱和冬旱呈减轻趋势,其中春旱有3个周期演变规律,冬旱有2个周期演变规律;空间上,春夏两季川中丘陵区中部为干旱高发区,秋冬两季川中丘陵区北部为干旱高发区。该研究可为川中丘陵区制定防旱减灾措施提供理论依据。

... 2)描述水分供需状况的指标,包括Palmer指数、相对湿润指数、水分盈亏指数等^[18,19] ...

2007

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姚玉璧, 张存杰, 邓振镛, 等. 气象、农业干旱指标综述[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2007, 25(1): 185-189.

YAO Y

, ZHANG C

, DENG Z

, et al. Overview of meteorological and agricultural drought indices[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(1): 185-189. (in Chinese with English abstract)

介绍了以降水量统计特征作为指标和以降水量、气温统计特征作为指标的气象干旱指标,以土壤含水量、作物旱情、作物需水量、供需水比例、作物水分综合统计特征为指标的农业干旱指标.列出气象、农业干旱指标计算公式,介绍计算方法和干旱指标的详细等级标准,并对各指标计算所需统计资料观测、收集的难易程度,各指标的优缺点、适用性及其适用区域范围评述,为干旱的监测、评估、预警和研究提供依据.

... 而水分供需类指标从作物主要生长环境出发,考虑农田湿润状况,能更真实地反映农业干旱,但涉及参数众多,计算复杂,时效性较差^[20] ...

2013

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杨志勇, 袁喆, 马静, 等. 近50年来淮河流域的旱涝演变特征[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(4): 32-40.

YANG Z

, YUAN

, MA

, et al. Evloution characteristics of drought and flood in Huaihe River Basin in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(4): 32-40. (in Chinese with English abstract)

... 但冬小麦生育阶段干旱频发,严重影响生长发育和最终产量形成,带来一定的农业经济损失^[5,21] ...

... 信阳地区以冬小麦为主要粮食作物,在当地农业经济中占重要地位,因其具有的特殊地理位置、气候状况和下垫面条件,导致农业旱涝灾害频繁^[21] ...

2013

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许莹, 马晓群, 王晓东, 等. 淮河流域冬小麦水分亏缺时空变化特征分析[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(9): 1138-1144.

, MA X

, WANG X

, et al. Analysis of spatial and temporal variation characteristics of winter wheat water deficiency in Huaihe River Basin[J]. Scientia Geographical Sinica, 2013, 33(9): 1138-1144. (in Chinese with English abstract)

Abstract:The whole life of winter wheat in Huaihe River Basin (HRB) are mostly in winter-spring drought season. Natural precipitation shortage is the main factor which restricts the wheat production, so to study the spatial and temporal distribution regulation of winter wheat are very important for winter wheat planting plans and irrigation management of HRB. Based on data of pressure, vapor pressure, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and sunlight hours of 171 weather stations of HRB in 1971-2010, this article calculates the water surplus and deficit rate (WSDR) of the whole growth period (before winter growth period, wintering period, reviving and heading period, grain-filling and ripening period) of four winter wheat areas of HRB, and also analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of WSDR. The results show that the spatial distribution of WSDR in HRB in recent 39 years is affected by climatic and geographic factors, and it has obvious geographical characteristics: WSDR decreases from north to south, and it is the zonal mode structure. In different growing stage of winter wheat, WSDR in grain-filling and ripening period is most serious, reviving and heading period takes second place. Although the annual tendency of WSDR is not obvious, the growth period of winter wheat which have the best and the worst water conditions are in the same age. In 1980s, the water supply of before winter growth period is the most adequate time, meanwhile is the most serious water shortage time from wintering period to grain-filling and ripening period inⅠ,Ⅱand Ⅲ areas. It is also the same as that in Ⅳ areas in 2001-2010. Moreover, WSDR during mid-later growing period in north plain and northeast hilly winter wheat area are serious in four areas, especially during grain-filling and ripening period. Which effect yield greatly, it need take message to combat drought, and decrease the damage of drought.

统计研究区域4 个小麦种植亚区的冬小麦全生育期、冬前生长期、越冬期、返青-抽穗期、灌浆-成熟期的水分亏缺率,并对其时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明,近39 a 来,淮河流域冬小麦水分亏缺率的空间分布受气候、地形等多种因素影响,具有明显的地域特点:由北向南逐步递减,呈纬向分布;冬小麦水分亏缺率的年际变化趋势虽然不明显,但各区域水分条件最好和最差的生长时段并存于同一年代中;4 个冬小麦种植亚区中以淮河流域北部平原冬麦区和东北丘陵冬麦区在冬小麦生长发育中、后期,特别是灌浆-成熟的关键时期,水分亏缺严重,对产量形成有很大影响。

... 本研究以冬小麦全生育期为研究时段,研究区冬小麦全生育期为10月下旬至翌年5月下旬,冬前生长期为10月下旬至12月中旬,越冬期为12月下旬至翌年2月上旬,返青抽穗期为2月中旬至4月中旬,灌浆成熟期为4月下旬至5月下旬^[22] ...

... 与许莹等^[22]的研究结果相比,本文确定的冬小麦各生育期的水分盈亏数值偏小,水分亏缺相对严重,原因是本文通过USDA-SCS法计算冬小麦生育期的有效降水量替代自然供水量(降水量),有效降水量为作物生产直接或间接利用,以及农作物生长中其他必须耗用的水量 ...

2002

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... 本研究采用在国内已得到较多学者认可的USDA-SCS法计算冬小麦有效降水量^[7,23] ...

1998

0.0

... 式中各参数的计算参考文献[24] ...

2016

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郭群善. 近50年长江中下游地区旱涝时空分布[J]. 南水北调与水利科技, 2016, 14(4): 1-6.

GUO Q

. Drought-flood temporal and spatial distribution in middle and downstream area of the Yangtze River over past 50 years[J]. South-to North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2016, 14(4): 1-6. (in Chinese with English abstract)

摘　要：长江中下游地区是我国重要的粮棉油产地之一,但是频繁发生的旱涝灾害经常造成该区域作物减产。利用长江中下游地区72个气象站的逐月气象观测数据,采用标准化降水指数（SPI）、正交经验分解函数（EOF）等方法,结合GIS技术,分析了近50年长江中下游地区旱涝时空变化分布特征。结果表明：长江中下游地区的旱涝SPI3空间格局既有全区一致的现象,也存在区域内部南北、东西方向的差异,但是其主要特点依然为纬向分布型。由于受气候影响,长江中下游地区夏秋两季旱涝灾害交替发生,但以涝灾为主。

... SPI能够反映不同时间尺度和地区的旱涝状况及干旱的年际变化^[25] ...

1993

0.0

... SPI方法由McKee等^[26]于1993年提出,SPI的计算方法参照《气象干旱等级GB/T20481#cod#x02014 ...

... 干旱划分等级参照Mckee等^[26]与《气象干旱等级》^[27]的旱涝等级标准,文中主要计算轻度以上干旱(SPI#cod#x02264 ...

2006

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... 干旱划分等级参照Mckee等^[26]与《气象干旱等级》^[27]的旱涝等级标准,文中主要计算轻度以上干旱(SPI#cod#x02264 ...

1975

0.0

... 对信阳地区冬小麦不同生育期平均SPI值计算后,利用MK法^[28]对冬小麦全生育期平均SPI值进行突变检验,并对冬小麦各生育阶段和全生育期SPI值进行趋势变化显著性检验 ...

2016

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赵兴凯, 李增尧, 朱清科. 基于SPI和SPEI陕北黄土区土壤水分对气候特征的响应[J]. 农业机械学报, 2016, 47(8): 155-163.

ZHAO X

, LI Z

, ZHU Q

. Response of soil moisture on climate characteristics based on SPI and SPEI in loess region of Northern Shaanxi[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2016, 47(8): 155-163. (in Chinese with English abstract)

通过计算标准化降水指数和标准化降水蒸散指数且借助Mann-Kendall检验分析陕北吴起县1957-2014年的降水和气温,并与研究区土壤含水率进行回归分析,旨在明确陕北吴起县气候特征及其与土壤含水率的关系.结果表明:①1957-2014年吴起县降水年际差异明显且季节变化趋势不同,平均以11.17 mm/(10 a)的幅度减少;四季气温均显著或极显著升高,年均气温以0.01℃/(10 a)的幅度升高.降水和气温的变化均具突变现象,突变开始年份分别为1972年前后及1991年.②两指数均能较准确反映陕北吴起县气候特征,1957-2014年间吴起县干湿年交替出现,主要湿润期出现在20世纪60年代.干旱年和湿润年的年份相当,均远少于正常年份,但吴起县仍处于变干旱的趋势中,且干旱程度加重.③研究区6-10月份各坡向坡面0～lm深度土壤含水率与月尺度的两指数均有很高的相关性,存在二次函数关系.

2008

0.0