关键词: 能值足迹, 情景预测, “桥头堡”建设, 云南省

Abstract: This article analyzed dynamic changes of energy footprint and ecosystem sustainable development in Yunnan Province during the period of 2001-2010 by improved ecological footprint model with energy analysis. The results showed that: the ecological system was still in the sustainable development status even though the per capita energy value reduced to 17076 hm2 in 2009. On this basis， the trend of per capita energy surplus of the next five years was scenarioscan predicted by GM（1，1） model. The results displayed that the per capita energy surplus kept downward trend with the value 15098 hm2 to 01767 hm2 from 2011 to 2015 in the condition that no sudden change occurred in natural environment and economic development; That is to say, the ecological value system did not appear deficit, so it was in coordination state. The conclusion above were important for the implementation of “Bridge head” strategy o f resource development and ecological security barrier construction．

Key words: energy footprint, scenario forecast, “Bridge head” building, Yunnan Province