气候变化对灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)在中国潜在适生区的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231158

浙江农业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1844-1855.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231158

气候变化对灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)在中国潜在适生区的影响

李晓娜^a(), 张琳^a, 白芹菲^a, 马思玲^a, 杨菡^a, 潘尹茜雪^a, 邓忠坚^b^,^*()

西南林业大学 a. 生态与环境学院(湿地学院);b. 云南生物多样性研究院,云南昆明 650224

收稿日期:2023-10-07 出版日期:2024-08-25 发布日期:2024-09-06
作者简介:*邓忠坚,E-mail: 43946916@qq.com
李晓娜(1985—),女,河南清丰人,博士,讲师,主要从事景观生态学研究。E-mail: xiaonali_20060429@163.com
通讯作者: 邓忠坚
基金资助:
西南林业大学科研启动基金(111610);国家自然科学基金(31901322);国家自然科学基金(32360395)

Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus in China

LI Xiaona^a(), ZHANG Lin^a, BAI Qinfei^a, MA Siling^a, YANG Han^a, PAN Yinxixue^a, DENG Zhongjian^b^,^*()

College of Ecology and Environment Science (College of Wetland Science); b. Yunnan Academy of Biodiversity, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China

Received:2023-10-07 Online:2024-08-25 Published:2024-09-06
Contact: DENG Zhongjian

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了探讨气候变化对灯盏花潜在生态适宜区的影响,基于灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)分布数据、气候、土壤和地形等环境因子,运用MaxEnt模型模拟灯盏花在中国的潜在分布,采用刀切法筛选出影响灯盏花潜在分布的关键环境因子,并借助于ArcGIS软件中的空间分析工具分析气候变化对我国灯盏花潜在适生区的影响。结果表明:MaxEnt模型能够极好地模拟灯盏花的潜在分布,气温年较差、年均降水量和海拔是影响灯盏花潜在分布的关键环境因子;与基准气候(1970—2000年)相比,可持续发展路径(SSP126)情景和中间发展路径(SSP245)情景下灯盏花高适生区面积分别减少了21 229.17、16 053.47 km²,仅传统发展路径(SSP585)情景下中高适生区面积共增加27 749.03 km²,SSP126和SSP245情景下灯盏花适生区的质心均向东南方向移动,仅SSP585情景下灯盏花适生区的质心向东北方向移动。综上所述,各气候情景下灯盏花适生区均主要分布于我国西南地区,但SSP126和SSP245情景下灯盏花在我国的潜在适生区面积缩减,仅SSP585情景有利于我国灯盏花的分布。

关键词: 气候变化, 潜在适生区, MaxEnt模型, 灯盏花

Abstract:

In order to explore the impact of climate changes on the potential ecological suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus, MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of E. breviscapus in China based on environmental factors such as E. breviscapus distribution data, climate, soil and terrain, and the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E. breviscapus were screened by Jackknife cutting method. The influence of climate changes on the potential suitable area in China was analyzed using the spatial analysis tool in ArcGIS software. The results showed that the MaxEnt model could excellently simulate the potential distribution of E. breviscapus, annual temperature range, annual mean precipitation and altitude were the key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of E. breviscapus; Compared with the baseline climate (1970—2000 year), the sustainable development path (SSP126) and intermediate development path (SSP245) scenarios reduced the area of high suitability of E. breviscapus by 21 229.17 km²and 16 053.47 km², respectively, only in the traditional development path (SSP585) scenario, the area of middle and high suitable regions increased by 27 749.03 km². In the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, the centroid of suitable regions shifted to the southeast, while in the SSP585 scenario, the centroid shifted to the northeast. In summary, the suitable area of E. breviscapus was mainly distributed in southwest China under all climate scenarios, but SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios reduced the potential suitable area of E. breviscapus in China, and only SSP585 scenario was favorable to the distribution of E. breviscapus in China.

Key words: climate change, potential suitable area, MaxEnt model, Erigeron breviscapus

中图分类号:

S567.239

李晓娜, 张琳, 白芹菲, 马思玲, 杨菡, 潘尹茜雪, 邓忠坚. 气候变化对灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)在中国潜在适生区的影响[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2024, 36(8): 1844-1855.

LI Xiaona, ZHANG Lin, BAI Qinfei, MA Siling, YANG Han, PAN Yinxixue, DENG Zhongjian. Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus in China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(8): 1844-1855.

图/表 7

参考文献 51

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环境变量 Environment variable	描述 Descriptions	环境变量 Environment variable	描述 Descriptions
Bio1	年平均气温Annual mean temperature/℃	DEM	海拔Altitude/m
Bio7	气温年较差Temperature annual range/℃	AWC	土壤有效含水量Soil available water capacity/%
Bio12	年均降水量Annual precipitation/mm	T_clay	土壤黏土含量 Topsoil clay fraction/%
Bio15	降水量季节变化Precipitation seasonality/mm	T_silt	土壤淤泥含量 Topsoil silt fraction/%

环境变量 Environment variable	描述 Descriptions	环境变量 Environment variable	描述 Descriptions
Bio1	年平均气温Annual mean temperature/℃	DEM	海拔Altitude/m
Bio7	气温年较差Temperature annual range/℃	AWC	土壤有效含水量Soil available water capacity/%
Bio12	年均降水量Annual precipitation/mm	T_clay	土壤黏土含量 Topsoil clay fraction/%
Bio15	降水量季节变化Precipitation seasonality/mm	T_silt	土壤淤泥含量 Topsoil silt fraction/%

变量Varibles	1970—2000	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585	变量Varibles	1970—2000	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
Bio7	34.3	34.9	41.3	38.7	Bio1	4.4	4.2	4.0	3.5
Bio12	27.6	25.1	21.9	24.2	T_silt	3.7	4.0	4.0	3.0
DEM	21.8	22.2	19.8	20.9	Bio15	2.0	3.3	3.4	2.9
T_clay	4.4	5.2	4.0	5.0	AWC	1.8	1.2	1.6	1.9

变量Varibles	1970—2000	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585	变量Varibles	1970—2000	SSP126	SSP245	SSP585
Bio7	34.3	34.9	41.3	38.7	Bio1	4.4	4.2	4.0	3.5
Bio12	27.6	25.1	21.9	24.2	T_silt	3.7	4.0	4.0	3.0
DEM	21.8	22.2	19.8	20.9	Bio15	2.0	3.3	3.4	2.9
T_clay	4.4	5.2	4.0	5.0	AWC	1.8	1.2	1.6	1.9

省级行政区 Province	分布面积Distribution area
省级行政区 Province	低适生区Low suitable area	中适生区Medium suitable area	高适生区High suitable area
四川Sichuan	195 053.47	66 561.11	54 825.00
西藏Xizang	93 302.78	60 431.25	15 850.69
湖南Hunan	78 402.78	2 713.89	0
陕西Shaanxi	76 394.44	1 854.86	0
贵州Guizhou	73 290.97	76 225.00	7 147.92
广西Guangxi	62 945.14	13 427.78	1 713.89
重庆Chongqing	61 952.78	2 089.58	0
云南Yunnan	58 070.83	119 510.42	155 377.78
福建Fujian	57 872.92	16 905.56	448.61
湖北Hubei	57 581.25	377.08	0
甘肃Gansu	32 611.81	645.83	0
浙江Zhejiang	30 282.64	111.11	2.08
江西Jiangxi	29 833.33	81.25	0
广东Guangdong	28 531.94	193.06	0
河南Henan	13 565.97	0	0
青海Qinghai	5 458.33	135.42	0
安徽Anhui	4 768.06	78.47	0
海南Hainan	3 610.42	16.67	0
台湾Taiwan	1 518.06	0	0
江苏Jiangsu	1 022.92	0	0
山西Shanxi	450.00	0	0
上海Shanghai	300.00	0	0
山东Shandong	230.56	0	0
新疆Xinjiang	131.25	0	0
宁夏Ningxia	45.83	0	0
河北Hebei	22.92	0	0
北京Beijing	2.08	0	0
辽宁Liaoning	0.69	0	0
全国合计The total in China	967 254.17	361 358.34	235 365.97

气候变化对灯盏花(Erigeron breviscapus)在中国潜在适生区的影响

Impacts of climate change on the potential suitable area of Erigeron breviscapus in China

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气候情景 Climte scenario	高适生区 High suitable area			适生区 Suitable area
气候情景 Climte scenario	经度 Longitude/(°)	纬度 Latitude/(°)	移动距离 Displacement distance/km	经度 Longitude/(°)	纬度 Latitude/(°)	移动距离 Displacement distance/km
1970—2000	101.15	26.13	0	103.29	27.19	0
SSP126	101.53	26.05	15.00	103.37	27.06	36.50
SSP245	101.80	26.20	58.25	103.89	27.02	48.47
SSP585	101.65	26.27	66.41	103.99	27.33	61.19

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