关键词: 耕地需求量, 粮食安全法, GM (1, 1)模型, 时间序列法

Abstract: The twenty\|first century was in the rapid social transformation period. Whether the forecast on the county cultivated land demand was reasonable or not was related to the degrees of regional and global cultivated land protection pressure. Taking Jiajiang County as an example， the food safety law， GM(1， 1) model and time series forecasting method were used to forecast the cultivated land demand for Jiajiang County. And then combining the natural， economic and social situation， as well as the present land utilization situation， three kinds of prediction results were endowed with weights by means of AHP method， finally cultivated land demand in Jiajiang County was calculated by using fixed weight coefficient prediction. The results showed that the demand for cultivated land in 2020 and 2030 would be 14 49359 and 14 28945 hm2. The method could accurately investigate the demand for cultivated land in a certain year， taking natural， social， economic factors into account.

Key words: demand for cultivated land, food safety, GM (1, 1) model, time series forecasting method