浙江省农业科技进步贡献率测算——基于随机前沿函数的分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.08.22

浙江农业学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 1784-1795.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.08.22

浙江省农业科技进步贡献率测算——基于随机前沿函数的分析

毛晓红(), 傅琳琳, 张柳, 王瑾, 毛小报^*()

浙江省农业科学院农村发展研究所,浙江杭州 310021

收稿日期:2022-03-14 出版日期:2022-08-25 发布日期:2022-08-26
通讯作者: 毛小报
作者简介:*毛小报,E-mail: m1362571@163.com
毛晓红(1965—),女,浙江江山人,学士,副研究员,研究方向为农业经济。E-mail: mxh6602@163.com
基金资助:
浙江省“三农六方”科技协作项目(2019SNL030)

Calculation and analysis of contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture in Zhejiang Province, China: based on stochastic frontier analysis

MAO Xiaohong(), FU Linlin, ZHANG Liu, WANG Jin, MAO Xiaobao^*()

Institute of Rural Development, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China

Received:2022-03-14 Online:2022-08-25 Published:2022-08-26
Contact: MAO Xiaobao

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用超越对数随机前沿生产函数模型,基于浙江省县级单元的面板数据,测算浙江省2014—2019年农业科技进步贡献率。结果表明:2014—2019年浙江农业产出的增长主要来源于科技进步率的提升,至2019年,浙江农业科技进步贡献率达到64.30%。2014—2019年,浙江农业的狭义科技进步率呈现稳步增长趋势,主要依靠中性技术进步。农业产业结构的变动在一定程度上影响了相关技术的应用和生产经营规模,从而对农业科技进步贡献率产生影响。将浙江农业划分为平原型、沿海型、山地型3种农业发展类型,资本和土地对山地型农业发展的影响较大,劳动力对平原型农业发展的影响最大,沿海型农业的技术效率变化率最大。

关键词: 农业科技, 全要素生产率, 农业科技进步贡献率

Abstract:

In the present study, based on the county-level panel data, stochastic frontier analysis was introduced to calculate the contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture in Zhejiang in 2014-2019. It was shown that the growth of agricultural output in Zhejiang in 2014-2019 was mainly driven by the improvement of technological progress rate. In 2019, the contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture in Zhejiang reached 64.30%. In 2014-2019, the narrow technological progress rate showed a steady increasing trend, which was mainly driven by neutral technological progress. Changes in the agricultural industry structure affected the contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture via its influence on the application of related technologies and the scale of production and operation. Three agricultural development types were divided in Zhejiang as plain type, coastal type and mountain type. Among them capital and land had bigger impact on the mountain type, while labor had bigger impact on the plain type. Costal type showed the highest change rate of technological efficiency.

Key words: agricultural science and technology, total factor productivity, contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture

中图分类号:

毛晓红, 傅琳琳, 张柳, 王瑾, 毛小报. 浙江省农业科技进步贡献率测算——基于随机前沿函数的分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2022, 34(8): 1784-1795.

MAO Xiaohong, FU Linlin, ZHANG Liu, WANG Jin, MAO Xiaobao. Calculation and analysis of contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture in Zhejiang Province, China: based on stochastic frontier analysis[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2022, 34(8): 1784-1795.

图/表 11

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地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)	地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)	地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)
杭州 Hangzhou	1	市区(萧山区、大江东、钱塘新区) Urban area (Xiaoshan, Dajiangdong, Qiantang new area)	宁波 Ningbo	28 29	市区(鄞州区、高新区、海曙区) Urban area (Yinzhou, High-tech zone, Haishu) 余姚市Yuyao	金华 Jinhua	55	市区(金东区、婺城区、经开区) Urban area (Jindong, Wucheng, Economic development zone)
	2	余杭区Yuhang		30	宁海县Ninghai		56	武义县Wuyi
	3	建德市Jiande		31	奉化区Fenghua		57	义乌市Yiwu
	4	桐庐县Tonglu		32	慈溪市Cixi		58	东阳市Dongyang
	5	富阳区Fuyang		33	象山县Xiangshan		59	浦江县Pujiang
	6	临安区Lin'an		34	江北区Jiangbei		60	兰溪市Lanxi
	7	淳安县Chun'an		35	镇海区Zhenhai		61	永康市Yongkang
台州Taizhou	8	路桥区Luqiao		36	北仑区		62	磐安县Pan'an
	9	天台县Tiantai			Beilun	湖州	63	德清县Deqing
	10	椒江区Jiaojiang	嘉兴Jiaxing	37	海盐县Haiyan	Huzhou	64	长兴县Changxing
	11	温岭市Wenling		38	海宁市Haining		65	安吉县Anji
	12	临海市Linhai		39	平湖市Pinghu		66	吴兴区Wuxing
	13	黄岩区Huangyan		40	嘉善县Jiashan		67	南浔区Nanxun
	14	三门县Sanmen		41	桐乡市Tongxiang	丽水Lishui	68	莲都区Liandu
	15	仙居县Xianju		42	南湖区Nanhu		69	松阳县Songyang
	16	玉环市Yuhuan		43	秀洲区Xiuzhou		70	云和县Yunhe
温州 Wenzhou	17	市区(龙湾区、经开区) Urban area (Longwan, Economic development zone)	绍兴 Shaoxing	44 45	市区(柯桥区、越城区) Urban area (Keqiao, Yuecheng) 上虞区Shangyu		71 72 73 74	龙泉市Longquan 遂昌县Suichang 庆元县Qingyuan 缙云县Jinyun
	18	苍南县(含龙港市) Cangnan (including Longgang)		46 47 48	诸暨市Zhuji 嵊州市Shengzhou 新昌县Xinchang		75 76 77	景宁县Jingning 青田县Qingtian 定海区Dinghai
	19	瑞安市Rui'an	衢州	49	江山市Jiangshan	舟山	78	普陀区Putuo
	20	平阳县Pingyang	Quzhou	50	常山县Changshan	Zhoushan	79	岱山县Daishan
	21	乐清市Yueqing		51	龙游县Longyou		80	嵊泗县Shengsi
	22	瓯海区Ouhai		52	柯城区Kecheng
	23	鹿城区Lucheng		53	衢江区Qujiang
	24	永嘉县Yongjia		54	开化县Kaihua
	25	文成县Wencheng
	26	泰顺县Taishun
	27	洞头区Dongtou

地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)	地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)	地级市 Prefecture- level city	序号 No.	样本县(市、区) Sample counties (cities, districts)
杭州 Hangzhou	1	市区(萧山区、大江东、钱塘新区) Urban area (Xiaoshan, Dajiangdong, Qiantang new area)	宁波 Ningbo	28 29	市区(鄞州区、高新区、海曙区) Urban area (Yinzhou, High-tech zone, Haishu) 余姚市Yuyao	金华 Jinhua	55	市区(金东区、婺城区、经开区) Urban area (Jindong, Wucheng, Economic development zone)
	2	余杭区Yuhang		30	宁海县Ninghai		56	武义县Wuyi
	3	建德市Jiande		31	奉化区Fenghua		57	义乌市Yiwu
	4	桐庐县Tonglu		32	慈溪市Cixi		58	东阳市Dongyang
	5	富阳区Fuyang		33	象山县Xiangshan		59	浦江县Pujiang
	6	临安区Lin'an		34	江北区Jiangbei		60	兰溪市Lanxi
	7	淳安县Chun'an		35	镇海区Zhenhai		61	永康市Yongkang
台州Taizhou	8	路桥区Luqiao		36	北仑区		62	磐安县Pan'an
	9	天台县Tiantai			Beilun	湖州	63	德清县Deqing
	10	椒江区Jiaojiang	嘉兴Jiaxing	37	海盐县Haiyan	Huzhou	64	长兴县Changxing
	11	温岭市Wenling		38	海宁市Haining		65	安吉县Anji
	12	临海市Linhai		39	平湖市Pinghu		66	吴兴区Wuxing
	13	黄岩区Huangyan		40	嘉善县Jiashan		67	南浔区Nanxun
	14	三门县Sanmen		41	桐乡市Tongxiang	丽水Lishui	68	莲都区Liandu
	15	仙居县Xianju		42	南湖区Nanhu		69	松阳县Songyang
	16	玉环市Yuhuan		43	秀洲区Xiuzhou		70	云和县Yunhe
温州 Wenzhou	17	市区(龙湾区、经开区) Urban area (Longwan, Economic development zone)	绍兴 Shaoxing	44 45	市区(柯桥区、越城区) Urban area (Keqiao, Yuecheng) 上虞区Shangyu		71 72 73 74	龙泉市Longquan 遂昌县Suichang 庆元县Qingyuan 缙云县Jinyun
	18	苍南县(含龙港市) Cangnan (including Longgang)		46 47 48	诸暨市Zhuji 嵊州市Shengzhou 新昌县Xinchang		75 76 77	景宁县Jingning 青田县Qingtian 定海区Dinghai
	19	瑞安市Rui'an	衢州	49	江山市Jiangshan	舟山	78	普陀区Putuo
	20	平阳县Pingyang	Quzhou	50	常山县Changshan	Zhoushan	79	岱山县Daishan
	21	乐清市Yueqing		51	龙游县Longyou		80	嵊泗县Shengsi
	22	瓯海区Ouhai		52	柯城区Kecheng
	23	鹿城区Lucheng		53	衢江区Qujiang
	24	永嘉县Yongjia		54	开化县Kaihua
	25	文成县Wencheng
	26	泰顺县Taishun
	27	洞头区Dongtou

变量 Variable	估计值 Estimated value	标准误 Standard error
常数项Constant	1.808 0^***	0.166 2
lnX₁	0.627 0^***	0.056 4
lnX₂	-0.267 8^***	0.077 6
lnX₃	0.138 9	0.088 4
t	0.020 3^**	0.009 6
t²	0.000 1	0.000 8
t lnX₁	0.004 8^**	0.002 3
t lnX₂	0.001 1	0.002 6
t lnX₃	-0.005 4^**	0.002 6
lnX₁ lnX₂	0.020 3	0.026 4
lnX₁ lnX₃	-0.041 4^*	0.022 3
lnX₂ lnX₃	0.199 4^***	0.038 0
(lnX₁)²	-0.000 1	0.012 1
(lnX₂)²	-0.107 5^***	0.023 4
(lnX₃)²	-0.037 1^*	0.020 8
D₁	0.235 0^***	0.035 8
D₂	0.301 8^***	0.050 6
σ²	0.168 2^*	0.086 0
γ	0.993 8^***	0.003 4
η	0.000 5	0.006 1

变量 Variable	估计值 Estimated value	标准误 Standard error
常数项Constant	1.808 0^***	0.166 2
lnX₁	0.627 0^***	0.056 4
lnX₂	-0.267 8^***	0.077 6
lnX₃	0.138 9	0.088 4
t	0.020 3^**	0.009 6
t²	0.000 1	0.000 8
t lnX₁	0.004 8^**	0.002 3
t lnX₂	0.001 1	0.002 6
t lnX₃	-0.005 4^**	0.002 6
lnX₁ lnX₂	0.020 3	0.026 4
lnX₁ lnX₃	-0.041 4^*	0.022 3
lnX₂ lnX₃	0.199 4^***	0.038 0
(lnX₁)²	-0.000 1	0.012 1
(lnX₂)²	-0.107 5^***	0.023 4
(lnX₃)²	-0.037 1^*	0.020 8
D₁	0.235 0^***	0.035 8
D₂	0.301 8^***	0.050 6
σ²	0.168 2^*	0.086 0
γ	0.993 8^***	0.003 4
η	0.000 5	0.006 1

年份 Year	资本 Capital	劳动力 Labor	土地 Land
2014	0.215 4	0.220 1	0.564 4
2015	0.217 5	0.221 3	0.561 2
2016	0.220 0	0.221 5	0.558 5
2017	0.222 3	0.222 7	0.554 9
2018	0.224 5	0.224 6	0.550 9
2019	0.226 5	0.226 1	0.547 4

浙江省农业科技进步贡献率测算——基于随机前沿函数的分析

Calculation and analysis of contribution rate of technological progress of agriculture in Zhejiang Province, China: based on stochastic frontier analysis

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年份 Year	中性技术进步率 Neutral technological progress rate	偏性技术进步率 Biased technological progress rate	狭义科技进步率 Narrow technological progress rate
2014	0.020 4	0.000 9	0.021 3
2015	0.020 5	0.001 0	0.021 5
2016	0.020 6	0.001 2	0.021 8
2017	0.020 6	0.001 4	0.022 0
2018	0.020 7	0.001 5	0.022 2
2019	0.020 8	0.001 5	0.022 3

农业发展类型 Agricultural development type	标准化弹性Standardized elasticity			技术效率 Technological efficiency	技术效率变化率 Change rate of technological efficiency
农业发展类型 Agricultural development type	资本 Capital	劳动力 Labor	土地 Land	技术效率 Technological efficiency	技术效率变化率 Change rate of technological efficiency
平原型Plain type	0.246 5	0.219 1	0.534 4	0.812 0	0.000 1
沿海型Coastal type	0.256 0	0.179 8	0.564 1	0.678 3	0.000 2
山地型Mountain type	0.265 9	0.151 0	0.583 1	0.764 2	0.000 1

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