畜禽禁养区政策何以影响中国生猪市场稳定?

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2023.05.24

浙江农业学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 1195-1210.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2023.05.24

畜禽禁养区政策何以影响中国生猪市场稳定?

刘苇(), 陶建平()

华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北农村发展研究中心,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2022-06-05 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2023-06-01
作者简介:刘苇(1994—),女,重庆云阳人,博士研究生,研究方向为农业风险管理与农业政策。E-mail:liuwei_hzau@163.com
通讯作者: *陶建平,E-mail:jptao@mail.hzau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71773033)

How does livestock and poultry restricted zone policy affect stability of China’s hog market?

LIU Wei(), TAO Jianping()

Hubei Rural Development Research Center, College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China

Received:2022-06-05 Online:2023-05-25 Published:2023-06-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以2014年实施的禁养区政策为准自然实验,基于2006—2020年我国除港、澳、台、藏外30个省份的面板数据,采用渐进双重差分模型评估禁养区政策对生猪市场稳定的影响,建立有调节的中介效应模型探讨该政策影响生猪价格波动的路径。结果显示:禁养区的设立显著加剧了生猪价格波动。环保约束趋紧对生猪市场稳定造成一定负面影响。禁养区政策通过有调节的中介路径对生猪价格波动产生影响。具体地,环保压力下设立禁养区倒逼生猪养殖规模化水平提高,这能在一定程度上抵消禁养区对生猪价格波动造成的直接加剧效应;但受生猪疫情的影响,规模化养殖的价格波动平缓效应被削弱,甚至规模化养殖对生猪价格波动的作用方向发生扭转,从而导致禁养区设立通过其自身的直接效应与规模化养殖的条件间接效应加剧生猪价格波动。不同规模养殖对生猪价格波动的作用受生猪疫情的影响不同,小规模和大规模养殖在疫病的干预下会加剧生猪价格波动,中规模无显著影响。非洲猪瘟背景下环保措施的回调,促进了疫情期的生猪生产供给并平缓了价格波动。为保障生猪市场健康发展,建议政府实施有弹性的环保措施,加强环保监督,加大对中小养殖户的扶持力度,完善疫病防控机制。

关键词: 市场稳定, 禁养区政策, 规模化养殖, 生猪疫情, 调节中介效应

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China (excluding of Hongkong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet) from 2006 to 2020, the livestock and poultry restricted zone policy (RZP) was selected as a quasi-natural experiment, and a generalized difference-in-difference model and a moderated mediation model were adopted to evaluate the impact of this policy on the stability of hog market and to reveal its path. It was found that RZP significantly exacerbated hog price fluctuation, and the tightening of environmental protection restrictions had a negative impact on the stability of hog market. The policy worked through the moderated mediation effects path. Specifically, under the pressure of environmental protection, RZP forced the improvement of the scale breeding level, which could offset the direct aggravation effect of RZP on hog price fluctuation. However, in those regions with more severe swine epidemics, the stabilization effect of scale breeding on price fluctuation was weakened, and the direction of the effect was even reversed. As a result, RZP intensified the hog price fluctuation through its own direct effect and the conditional indirect effect of scale breeding. Further empirical test showed that the stabilization effect of hog price fluctuation of scale farming with different scales had different responses to pig epidemic. Small-scale farming and large-scale farming would aggravate hog price fluctuation due to the swine epidemics, while medium-scale farming was not significantly affected. The callback of environmental protection measures in response to the outbreak of African swine fever had boosted hog supply and had flattened price fluctuations during the epidemic period. In order to ensure the healthy development of hog market, the government should implement flexible environmental protection measures, strengthen environmental supervision, increase efforts to support small and medium-scale farming, and improve the epidemic prevention and control mechanism.

Key words: market stability, livestock and poultry restricted zone policy, scale breeding, pig epidemics, moderated mediation effect model

中图分类号:

F326.3

刘苇, 陶建平. 畜禽禁养区政策何以影响中国生猪市场稳定?[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2023, 35(5): 1195-1210.

LIU Wei, TAO Jianping. How does livestock and poultry restricted zone policy affect stability of China’s hog market?[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2023, 35(5): 1195-1210.

图/表 10

参考文献 41

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年份Year	省(区、市)Province (Autonomous region, Municipality)
2014	福建、广东、广西、贵州、河南、湖北、湖南、江西、浙江、重庆 Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Chongqing
2015	安徽、海南、山东、山西、上海、四川、云南 Anhui, Hainan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shanghai, Sichuan, Yunnan
2016	北京、甘肃、河北、黑龙江、吉林、江苏、辽宁、内蒙古、宁夏、青海、陕西、天津、新疆 Beijing, Gansu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Xinjiang

年份Year	省(区、市)Province (Autonomous region, Municipality)
2014	福建、广东、广西、贵州、河南、湖北、湖南、江西、浙江、重庆 Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Chongqing
2015	安徽、海南、山东、山西、上海、四川、云南 Anhui, Hainan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shanghai, Sichuan, Yunnan
2016	北京、甘肃、河北、黑龙江、吉林、江苏、辽宁、内蒙古、宁夏、青海、陕西、天津、新疆 Beijing, Gansu, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Xinjiang

变量 Variable	处理组Treat group		控制组Control group		全样本Full sample
变量 Variable	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
R×P	1	0	0	0	0.409	0.492
F	0.138	0.095	0.259	0.185	0.188	0.151
F'	0.122	0.084	0.226	0.169	0.165	0.136
L	0.211	0.170	0.193	0.119	0.203	0.151
M	0.079	0.040	0.068	0.045	0.075	0.043
C	0.049	0.042	0.049	0.038	0.049	0.041
B	0.086	0.050	0.064	0.036	0.077	0.046
I	0.026	0.059	0.013	0.010	0.020	0.046
S	0.343	0.188	0.542	0.213	0.425	0.221
D	0.419	0.647	0.631	1.093	0.506	0.863

变量 Variable	处理组Treat group		控制组Control group		全样本Full sample
变量 Variable	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
R×P	1	0	0	0	0.409	0.492
F	0.138	0.095	0.259	0.185	0.188	0.151
F'	0.122	0.084	0.226	0.169	0.165	0.136
L	0.211	0.170	0.193	0.119	0.203	0.151
M	0.079	0.040	0.068	0.045	0.075	0.043
C	0.049	0.042	0.049	0.038	0.049	0.041
B	0.086	0.050	0.064	0.036	0.077	0.046
I	0.026	0.059	0.013	0.010	0.020	0.046
S	0.343	0.188	0.542	0.213	0.425	0.221
D	0.419	0.647	0.631	1.093	0.506	0.863

变量 Variable	回归1 Regression 1		回归2 Regression 2
变量 Variable	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t
R×P	0.111^***	9.495	0.095^***	(9.817)
L	0.133^***	4.273	0.122^***	(4.497)
M	-1.339^***	-14.132	-1.309^***	(-15.011)
C	1.429^***	7.699	1.330^***	(7.420)
B	0.212^*	1.955	0.174^*	(1.917)
I	0.193	1.446	0.263^**	(2.153)
D	0.018^***	3.789	0.013^**	(2.713)
常数项	0.170^***	7.978	0.159^***	(8.052)
Constant
R²	0.461		0.488

畜禽禁养区政策何以影响中国生猪市场稳定?

How does livestock and poultry restricted zone policy affect stability of China’s hog market?

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变量 Variable	回归7 Regression 7	回归8 Regression 8	回归9 Regression 9	回归10 Regression 10	回归11 Regression 11	回归12 Regression 12	回归13 Regression 13	回归14 Regression 14
R×P	0.192^*** (12.609)	0.197^*** (12.772)	—	—	—	—	0.078^*** (4.301)	0.068^*** (4.480)
S	—	—	-0.359^*** (-9.303)	-0.303^*** (-10.344)	-0.268^*** (-7.765)	-0.212^*** (-8.336)	-0.176^** (-2.747)	-0.143^** (-2.755)
D	—	—	—	—	0.033^* (2.042)	0.026^* (1.757)	0.026^* (1.889)	0.019^* (1.817)
S×D	—	—	—	—	0.018^* (1.769)	0.016^* (1.702)	0.011^* (1.783)	0.010^* (1.782)
常数项 Constant	0.346^*** (55.662)	0.349^*** (27.163)	0.096^*** (2.992)	0.094^*** (3.307)	0.071^* (1.928)	0.075^** (2.316)	0.107^*** (2.987)	0.106^*** (3.431)
R²	0.471	0.519	0.428	0.458	0.444	0.470	0.472	0.497

模型 Model	调节变量的取值水平 Level of mediation variable	估计值 Coefficient	偏差 Bias	标准误 Standard error	95%置信区间95% Confidence interval
模型 Model	调节变量的取值水平 Level of mediation variable	估计值 Coefficient	偏差 Bias	标准误 Standard error	P	BC
回归13	低值 Low value	0.001	0.001	<0.001	[0.001,0.035]	[0.001, 0.035]
Regression 13	中值 Middle value	0.003	0.001	0.001	[0.001, 0.026]	[0.001, 0.025]
	高值 High value	0.004	0.001	0.001	[0.002, 0.025]	[0.002, 0.025]
回归14	低值 Low value	0.001	-0.001	<0.001	[0, 0.026]	[0, 0.025]
Regression 14	中值 Middle value	0.002	-0.001	0.001	[0.001, 0.021]	[0.001, 0.020]
	高值High value	0.004	-0.000	0.002	[0.002, 0.024]	[0.001, 0.023]

被解释变量 Explained variable	变量 Variable	散养 Free-range farming		小规模养殖 Small-scale farming		中规模养殖 Middle-scale farming		大规模养殖 Large-scale farming
被解释变量 Explained variable	变量 Variable	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t
F	R×P	0.078^***	4.301	0.119^***	7.401	0.075^***	4.368	0.097^***	6.439
	S	0.176^**	2.747	-0.134^***	-3.761	-0.613^***	-3.972	-0.243^*	-1.767
	D	0.014^*	1.715	0.006^*	1.811	0.025^**	2.609	0.024^***	2.958
	S×D	-0.011	-0.483	0.049^*	1.885	-0.035	-0.897	0.040^*	1.950
	常数项Constant	0.282^***	6.891	0.194^***	4.908	0.104^***	3.656	0.148^***	5.785
	R²	0.472		0.463		0.489		0.469
F'	R×P	0.068^***	4.480	0.102^***	8.072	0.070^***	4.551	0.081^***	6.687
	S	0.143^**	2.755	-0.113^***	-3.812	-0.441^***	-3.324	-0.235^**	-2.130
	D	0.010^*	1.703	0.005^*	1.804	0.019^**	2.110	0.018^**	2.316
	S×D	-0.010	-0.482	0.034^*	1.864	-0.031	-0.883	0.032^*	1.921
	常数项Constant	0.249^***	7.351	0.178^***	5.477	0.110^***	4.567	0.137^***	5.976
	R²	0.497		0.490		0.506		0.497

[1]	樊慧丽, 付文阁. 基于局部均衡模型的中国羊肉市场供需变动分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(6): 1123-1132.
[2]	王安邦, 何可, 张俊飚. 健康意识对规模养殖户亲环境行为的影响——基于生猪环保饲料支付意愿的视角[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2019, 31(10): 1745-1757.
[3]	李小刚, 熊涛. 中国规模生猪养殖效率测度及其补贴政策效益评价研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2019, 31(7): 1184-1192.
[4]	许丽灵, 游良志, 孙战利, 张社梅. 蜂农对天气变化的感知及其影响因素--以四川省为例[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(6): 1089-1098.

变量 Variable	回归15 Regression 15		回归16 Regression 16
变量 Variable	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t
R×P⁰	0.149^***	8.186	0.127^***	7.476
R×P¹	0.225^***	5.895	0.194^***	6.852
R×P²	0.241^***	8.861	0.230^***	8.960
R×P³	0.053^*	1.984	0.026^**	2.046
R×P⁴	0.028	0.565	0.036^**	2.121
R×P⁵	-0.019	-1.416	0.020^*	1.740
常数项 Constant	0.185^***	7.513	0.171^***	7.898
R²	0.571		0.599

变量 Variable	回归15 Regression 15		回归16 Regression 16
变量 Variable	估计系数 Coefficient	t	估计系数 Coefficient	t
R×P⁰	0.149^***	8.186	0.127^***	7.476
R×P¹	0.225^***	5.895	0.194^***	6.852
R×P²	0.241^***	8.861	0.230^***	8.960
R×P³	0.053^*	1.984	0.026^**	2.046
R×P⁴	0.028	0.565	0.036^**	2.121
R×P⁵	-0.019	-1.416	0.020^*	1.740
常数项 Constant	0.185^***	7.513	0.171^***	7.898
R²	0.571		0.599