基于局部均衡模型的中国羊肉市场供需变动分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.06.20

浙江农业学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 1123-1132.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.06.20

基于局部均衡模型的中国羊肉市场供需变动分析

樊慧丽, 付文阁^*

中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083

收稿日期:2019-11-11 出版日期:2020-06-25 发布日期:2020-06-24
通讯作者: *付文阁,E-mail: fuwenge@cau.edu.cn
作者简介:樊慧丽(1994—),女,山西忻州人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为农业理论与政策。E-mail:fhl1101@cau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-38)

Analysis of supply and demand changes in China's mutton market based on partial equilibrium model

FAN Huili, FU Wenge^*

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2019-11-11 Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-06-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对中国羊肉市场供需变动情况进行深入分析,并运用局部均衡模型探究中国羊肉市场供给与需求相互变动的主要原因,最后运用ARIMA模型预测方法对中国未来羊肉供需变化进行预测分析。研究结果表明,中国羊肉市场需求的满足以国内市场供给为主,2017年国内供需缺口为74.28万t,约是1994年的3.82倍,供需缺口有扩大倾向。上一期肉羊存栏量、肉羊胴体质量水平、羊肉市场价格均显著影响国内羊肉市场供给量;上一期人均消费量与收入水平是影响城镇与农村居民当期人均消费量的重要因素;国际羊肉价格对国内羊肉出口量产生显著正向影响。在未来一段时期内,中国羊肉产量将保持稳定增长,羊肉消费量进一步增加,预计到2030年达到843.03万t,羊肉进口量较大幅度提高,可一定程度弥补国内羊肉供需缺口。为此,一方面需通过技术与政策支持大力发展国内肉羊产业,另一方面也需积极开拓国际市场,加强贸易协作。

关键词: 羊肉市场, 供需变动, 趋势预测, 局部均衡模型

Abstract: This paper analyzed the changes of supply and demand in China's mutton market, the partial equilibrium model was used to explore the main reasons and ARIMA model prediction method was used to predict the future changes. The research results showed that the demand for mutton market was mainly based on domestic market. The domestic supply and demand gap in 2017 was 742 800 t, about 3.82 times that of 1994. The gap tended to be widened. The previous period of stocks, production value and market price all significantly affected the domestic market supply. The per capita consumption and income level were important factors affecting the current per capita consumption of urban and rural residents. The international price had a significant positive impact on the domestic mutton export. In the future, China's mutton production will maintain a stable growth, and the consumption of mutton will further increase. It was expected to reach 8.4303×10⁶ t by year 2030, and the import of mutton will be greatly increased, which can make up the gap between domestic mutton supply and demand to a certain extent. Therefore, on one hand, it would be necessary to vigorously develop domestic mutton sheep industry through technology and policy.On the other hand, it would also be necessary to actively explore the international market and strengthen trade cooperation.

Key words: mutton market, supply and demand changes, trend forecast, partial equilibrium model

中图分类号:

[S-9]
F326.3

樊慧丽, 付文阁. 基于局部均衡模型的中国羊肉市场供需变动分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(6): 1123-1132.

FAN Huili, FU Wenge. Analysis of supply and demand changes in China's mutton market based on partial equilibrium model[J]. , 2020, 32(6): 1123-1132.

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基于局部均衡模型的中国羊肉市场供需变动分析

Analysis of supply and demand changes in China's mutton market based on partial equilibrium model

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