基于期望效用理论的农户土地整治权属调整意愿研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230525

浙江农业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1436-1446.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230525

基于期望效用理论的农户土地整治权属调整意愿研究

吴诗嫚¹^,²(), 孟圣翔¹, 卢新海²^,^*(), 李卓凡³

1.武汉工程大学管理学院,湖北武汉 430205
2.华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉 430074
3.伦敦大学学院地球科学系,英国伦敦 WC1H0AH

收稿日期:2023-04-21 出版日期:2024-06-25 发布日期:2024-07-02
作者简介:吴诗嫚(1985—),女,江西抚州人,博士,教授,研究方向为土地利用与管理。E-mail: wushiman314@foxmail.com
通讯作者: *卢新海,E-mail:xinhailu@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(71904150);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(41801190);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(42101307);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA790083);湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究一般项目(20Y056);武汉工程大学研究生创新基金(CX2022280)

Study on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment in land consolidation based on expected utility theory

WU Shiman¹^,²(), MENG Shengxiang¹, LU Xinhai²^,^*(), LI Zhuofan³

1. School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China
2. Collage of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
3. Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, London WC1H0AH, U.K.

Received:2023-04-21 Online:2024-06-25 Published:2024-07-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于期望效用理论剖析农户土地整治权属调整意愿的内在机制,以广西壮族自治区龙州县的农户调查问卷数据为基础,采用逻辑斯谛(Logistic)模型,分析不确定条件下未来的预期收益和预期损失效用对农户权属调整意愿的影响,为引导农户积极响应权属调整提供决策参考。结果显示:农户认知是其产生支持行为意愿的基础,研究区只有约20%的农户对权属调整政策比较了解,超过80%的农户通过“自上而下”的方式被动获取信息,但接近90%的农户对权属调整表示认同,说明政策实施具备民意基础。在未来预期收益方面,新增耕地面积、改善农业基础设施条件、提高农业机械化使用率、提高规模化经营程度等因素对农户权属调整意愿至少在P<0.1水平上有显著正向影响;在未来预期损失方面,耕地质量下降、土地分配不公平等因素对农户权属调整意愿至少在P<0.05水平上有显著负向影响。据此提出如下对策建议:加强权属调整全过程的农户有效参与,切实保障农户土地权益;完善权属调整的法治化建设和制度化管理,促进权属调整获得农户的支持和信任;发挥权属调整对农地适度规模经营的推动作用,促进农户分享现代农业发展红利。

关键词: 期望效用理论, 权属调整, 农民意愿

Abstract:

Based on the expected utility theory, the internal mechanism of farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment in land consolidation was analyzed. Based on the questionnaire of farmers in Longzhou County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the Logistic model was used to analyze the effects of expected benefits and expected losses on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment under uncertain conditions, to provide a decision-making reference for guiding farmers to respond positively to property right adjustment. It was shown that the farmers’ cognition was the basis of their willingness to support. In the study area, only about 20% of farmers had a good understanding of the property right adjustment policy. More than 80% of them passively obtained realtive information through the “top-down” approach, but close to 90% of them agreed with the policy, indicating that the implementation of the policy had a broad public opinion foundation. In terms of expected benefits, factors such as increase cultivated land area, improve agricultural infrastructure conditions, increase the utilization rate of agricultural mechanines, and enhace operation scale had significant (P<0.1 at least) positive effects on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment. In terms of expected losses, the factors of decrease cultivated land quality and unfair distribution of cultivated land had significant (P<0.05 at least) negative effects on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment. Accordingly, suggestions were put forward: strengthen the effective participation of farmers in the whole process of property right adjustment and effectively protect their land rights and interests; improve the legal construction and institutionalized management of property right adjustment, promote the property right adjustment to gain the support and trust of farmers; give full play to the role of property right adjustment in promoting the moderate scale operation of farmland, and promote farmers to share the dividends of modern agricultural development.

Key words: expected utility theory, property right adjustment, farmer’s willingness

中图分类号:

F301.2

吴诗嫚, 孟圣翔, 卢新海, 李卓凡. 基于期望效用理论的农户土地整治权属调整意愿研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2024, 36(6): 1436-1446.

WU Shiman, MENG Shengxiang, LU Xinhai, LI Zhuofan. Study on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment in land consolidation based on expected utility theory[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(6): 1436-1446.

图/表 5

参考文献 23

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类别 Category	项目 Item	分组 Group	样本量 Sample quantity	比例 Proportion/%
农户家庭特征	性别Gender	男Male	192	74.70
Characteristics of		女Female	65	25.30
farmer household	年龄Age	20~<30	20	7.78
		30~<40	62	24.12
		40~<50	85	33.10
		50~<60	55	21.40
		≥60	35	13.62
	受教育程度Education level	小学Primary school	96	37.35
		初中Junior high school	139	54.10
		高中Senior high school	20	7.78
		大专及以上College degree or above	2	0.77
	收入来源Income source	农业Agriculture	190	73.93
		非农Non-agricultural	67	26.07
耕地资源特征	农户耕地面积	<1	190	73.93
Characteristics of	Household area of cultivated land/hm²	1~2	46	17.90
cultivated land		>2	22	8.17
resources	耕地细碎化程度	很低Very low	8	3.11
	Degree of cultivated land fragmentation	较低Low	35	13.62
		一般General	86	33.46
		较高High	116	45.14
		很高Very high	12	4.67
	耕地质量	很低Very low	21	8.17
	Quality of cultivated land	较低Low	43	16.73
		一般General	86	33.46
		较高High	67	26.07
		很高Very high	40	15.57

类别 Category	项目 Item	分组 Group	样本量 Sample quantity	比例 Proportion/%
农户家庭特征	性别Gender	男Male	192	74.70
Characteristics of		女Female	65	25.30
farmer household	年龄Age	20~<30	20	7.78
		30~<40	62	24.12
		40~<50	85	33.10
		50~<60	55	21.40
		≥60	35	13.62
	受教育程度Education level	小学Primary school	96	37.35
		初中Junior high school	139	54.10
		高中Senior high school	20	7.78
		大专及以上College degree or above	2	0.77
	收入来源Income source	农业Agriculture	190	73.93
		非农Non-agricultural	67	26.07
耕地资源特征	农户耕地面积	<1	190	73.93
Characteristics of	Household area of cultivated land/hm²	1~2	46	17.90
cultivated land		>2	22	8.17
resources	耕地细碎化程度	很低Very low	8	3.11
	Degree of cultivated land fragmentation	较低Low	35	13.62
		一般General	86	33.46
		较高High	116	45.14
		很高Very high	12	4.67
	耕地质量	很低Very low	21	8.17
	Quality of cultivated land	较低Low	43	16.73
		一般General	86	33.46
		较高High	67	26.07
		很高Very high	40	15.57

预期收益 Expected benifit	不同认知水平的农户所占比例Proportion of farmer households with varied cognitions
预期收益 Expected benifit	非常不可能 Impossible	比较不可能 Unlikely	一般 General	比较可能 Likely	非常可能 Probably
新增耕地面积Increase cultivated land	46.30	22.70	19.20	9.80	2.00
降低农业生产成本	10.20	11.80	23.50	27.10	27.50
Decrease agriculture production cost
改善农业基础设施条件	2.70	4.70	27.80	42.40	22.40
Improve agricultural infrastructure
提高农业机械化使用率	14.90	14.90	10.60	27.80	31.80
Increase the utilization rate of agricultural mechanines
改善农田景观Improve farmland landscape	4.30	5.90	15.30	38.80	35.70
提高规模化经营程度Enhance operation scale	24.30	12.50	22.40	24.70	16.10

预期收益 Expected benifit	不同认知水平的农户所占比例Proportion of farmer households with varied cognitions
预期收益 Expected benifit	非常不可能 Impossible	比较不可能 Unlikely	一般 General	比较可能 Likely	非常可能 Probably
新增耕地面积Increase cultivated land	46.30	22.70	19.20	9.80	2.00
降低农业生产成本	10.20	11.80	23.50	27.10	27.50
Decrease agriculture production cost
改善农业基础设施条件	2.70	4.70	27.80	42.40	22.40
Improve agricultural infrastructure
提高农业机械化使用率	14.90	14.90	10.60	27.80	31.80
Increase the utilization rate of agricultural mechanines
改善农田景观Improve farmland landscape	4.30	5.90	15.30	38.80	35.70
提高规模化经营程度Enhance operation scale	24.30	12.50	22.40	24.70	16.10

预期损失 Expected loss	不同认知水平的农户所占比例Proportion of farmer households with varied cognitions
预期损失 Expected loss	非常不可能 Impossible	比较不可能 Unlikely	一般 General	比较可能 Likely	非常可能 Probably
耕地质量下降Decrease the quality of cultivated land	8.80	26.62	14.05	19.29	31.24
利益受损得不到合理补偿Loss of interest	7.55	24.74	18.24	21.17	28.30
土地分配不公Unfair distribution of cultivated land	5.87	19.70	24.32	25.37	24.74
权属纠纷和矛盾	5.45	23.48	24.53	24.32	22.22
Property right disputes and contradictions

基于期望效用理论的农户土地整治权属调整意愿研究

Study on farmers’ willingness to property right adjustment in land consolidation based on expected utility theory

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变量 Variable	回归系数 Regression coefficient	标准差 Standard deviation	显著性概率 Significance probability
截距项	-7.937	2.256	<0.001
Intercept term
x₁	0.996	0.413	0.016
x₂	0.184	0.296	0.535
x₃	0.869	0.299	0.004
x₄	0.460	0.207	0.026
x₅	0.022	0.272	0.911
x₆	0.386	0.216	0.074
x₇	-0.598	0.267	0.025
x₈	-0.022	0.292	0.203
x₉	-1.014	0.310	0.001
x₁₀	-0.363	0.277	0.190

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