Abstract: Based on the county scale, an empirical study was carried out on the spatial attributes and influencing factors of arable land pressure of 157 major grain-producing counties (including county-level city, district, autonomous county, banner and autonomous banner) in China's main grain-producing regions from 2000 to 2015. The arable land pressure from 2016 to 2030 was also fitted and forecasted with the help of GM(1,1) model. It was shown that the 157 major grain-producing counties had a heavy load of arable land. Due to the continuous increase in grain yield per unit area, the overall arable land pressure index of 157 major grain-producing counties dropped from 0.88 in 2000 to 0.66 in 2015. In 2015, a total of 99 major grain-producing counties in the study were in safe stress zones, 20 major grain-producing counties were in potential stress zone, and 31 major grain-producing counties were in mild stress zones. Whereas, seven major grain-producing counties, including Pizhou City in Jiangsu Province, and Anyue County, Jianyang City, Xuanhan County, Yuechi County, Nanbu County, Zizhong County in Sichuan Province were in moderate stress zones, and were under a potential risk of arable land pressure. The spatial distribution of arable land pressure in the 157 major grain-producing counties varied significantly, and their Matthew effect increased, and showed a trend of high in the South and low in the North, high in the West and low in the East. During the study period, the overall bearing coefficient of arable land pressure continued to decrease, yet the sensitivity coefficient of arable land pressure fluctuated significantly, showing a “W” wave dynamic trend. Without considering serious natural disasters, it was predicted that by 2030, the arable land pressure in 157 major grain-producing counties would ease. A model of influencing factors that could change the arable land pressure was established, and was used to empirically analyze the significant effects of factors such as arable land quality, fertilizer input, planting structure, urbanization level, and farmers' income on arable land pressure. Therefore, it was still the priority to ease the arable land pressure by improving planting structure and arable land quality and increasing the grain yield per unit area.

Key words: major grain-producing counties, arable land pressure index, food security, main grain-producing regions