Abstract:

Under the “dual circulation” development pattern, moderate import has become the inevitable choice to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic feed grain in China. Thus, it is both important and necessary to effectively utilize the international feed grain market and reduce the stability risk of feed grain import. Based on the accurate judgment of domestic feed supply and demand situation, the availability and supply of feed grain imports were comprehensively analyzed, and Shannon entropy index method was used to evaluate the stability of feed grain imports. The results showed that the supply and demand pattern of domestic feed grains in China became tighter and showed a normal development trend, and the supply and demand gap was constantly expanding. Moderate import of feed grains was the general demand. Furthermore, the world’s feed grain supply potential is huge, and the correlation between China and the international feed grain production fluctuation is weak, so it is feasible to use the international market to make up the domestic feed grain supply and demand gap. Further analysis showed that the stability degree of feed grain import in China was at a low level on the whole from 1992 to 2020, among which the fluctuation range of corn, wheat bran and barley showed a larger fluctuation, while the soybean showed a smaller fluctuation. Under the new round of high-level opening-up, it is urgent to improve the policy system, optimize the import structure, and improve import stability, to build an open national feed grain security system under the new development pattern of “dual circulation”.

Key words: “dual circulation” pattern, feed grain, import stability, safeguarding strategy