巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.07.17

浙江农业学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 1281-1288.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.07.17

巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建

孟司奇, 丁高蓝, 肖兴宁, 肖英平, 杨华, 汪雯^*

浙江省农业科学院农产品质量标准研究所,农产品质量安全危害因子与风险防控国家重点实验室(筹),浙江杭州 310021

收稿日期:2019-11-28 出版日期:2020-07-25 发布日期:2020-07-28
通讯作者: *汪雯,E-mail:ww_hi1018@163.com
作者简介:孟司奇(1992—),男,安徽合肥人,硕士,研究方向为食品微生物预测模型。E-mail:zaas_meng47@163.com
基金资助:
浙江省重点研发计划(2015C02041); 国家自然科学基金(31601392)

Establishment of growth model of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized milk

MENG Siqi, DING Gaolan, XIAO Xingning, XIAO Yingping, YANG Hua, WANG Wen^*

State Key Laboratory for Managing Biotic and Chemical Threats to the Quality and Safety of Agro-Products (in Preparation), Institute of Quality and Standards for Agricultural Products, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China

Received:2019-11-28 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌污染可能会产生肠毒素,对人体健康造成危害。分别监测在4、10、16、20、24、28 ℃储藏条件下金黄色葡萄球菌在巴氏杀菌乳中的生长数据,采用Modified Gompertz模型、Logistic模型、Huang模型和Baranyi模型构建金黄色葡萄球菌动力学一级模型,采用平方根模型和Arrhenius模型建立二级模型以描述温度与相对最大生长速率(μ_max)的关系。结果显示,各温度下Modified Gompertz模型的拟合度更优,决定系数(R²)>0.98,均方根误差(RMSE)<4.6,为最合适的一级模型。二级模型中,Arrhenius模型的拟合度更优(R²=0.99,RMSE=0.60)。相较于平方根模型,外部验证显示Arrhenius模型的精确度因子(A_f)和偏差因子(B_f)分别为1.39和0.87,较接近于1,说明预测效果更好。研究结果可为巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的风险评估提供数据基础,为乳品货架安全期预测提供科学依据。

关键词: 金黄色葡萄球菌, 巴氏杀菌乳, 预测模型

Abstract: The enterotoxin of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized dairy would cause harm to human health. The growth kinetic of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized milk was monitored under 4, 10, 16, 20, 24, 28 ℃, and fitted by the Modified Gompertz model, Logistic model, Huang model and Baranyi model, respectively. The square root model and Arrhenius model were fitted to describe the maximum growth rate (μ_max) with temperature. It was shown that the Modified Gompertz model performed the best, as the determination coefficient (R²) was greater than 0.98, and root mean square error (RMSE) was smaller than 4.6. So, the Modified Gompertz model was chosen as the primary model. Compared with the square root model, the Arrhenius model was a better choice, which was indicated as R²=0.99 and RMSE=0.60. The external verification results showed that the accuracy factor (A_f) and the bias factor (B_f) of the Arrhenius model were 1.39 and 0.87, respectively, which well indicated its prediction potential. The results of this study offered references to predict the shelf-life of dairy products, and provided parts of the input data for microbial risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized milk.

Key words: Staphylococcus aureus, pasteurized milk, predictive model

中图分类号:

孟司奇, 丁高蓝, 肖兴宁, 肖英平, 杨华, 汪雯. 巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(7): 1281-1288.

MENG Siqi, DING Gaolan, XIAO Xingning, XIAO Yingping, YANG Hua, WANG Wen. Establishment of growth model of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized milk[J]. , 2020, 32(7): 1281-1288.

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巴氏杀菌乳中金黄色葡萄球菌的生长预测模型构建

Establishment of growth model of Staphylococcus aureus in pasteurized milk

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