关键词: 粮食主产区, 粮食供求格局, 粮食安全贡献度, FSP模型

Abstract: Based on the FSP model analysis framework of contribution rate to food security, the contribution rate of 13 main grain-producing provinces (autonomous region) to national food security in China was calculated and analyzed from the perspective of inter-provincial grain supply and demand balance, and the evolution characteristics of grain supply and demand pattern were explored in major grain-producing areas. It was shown that except for the grain supply gap caused by the sharp drop in grain output from 2000 to 2003, the grain surplus (export volume) in major grain-producing areas showed a “U”-shaped trend of “steady decline-absolute growth” from 1991 to 1999 and from 2004 to 2018. Over the years, the contribution rate to food security of the major grain-producing areas was higher than 85%, and the status was relatively stable. The main function of major grain-producing areas in China has undergone inter-provincial differentiation and reorganization. On one hand, grain supply was concentrated in central and northern regions, while the grain production and demand in the southern regions was tightly balanced, which resulted in a serious mismatch between food supply and demand. On the other hand, the spatial difference of grain supply and demand was obvious. Since 2000, the total contribution rate to food security of Heilongjiang, Henan and Jilin has reached about 50%. The contribution of Hunan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hebei, Hubei, Sichuan and Liaoning to grain security over the years was less than 5%, respectively, and the total amount of grain transferred from the later seven provinces only accounted for 10%-20% of the total amount of grain-transferred from the major grain producing-areas.

Key words: major grain-producing areas, patterns of food supply and demand, contribution rate to food security, FSP model