浙江省2013—2018年粮食综合生产能力评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.09.19

浙江农业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (9): 1748-1758.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.09.19

浙江省2013—2018年粮食综合生产能力评价

傅琳琳(), 毛晓红^*(), 毛小报, 蔡日旋

浙江省农业科学院农村发展研究所,浙江杭州 310021

收稿日期:2021-01-05 出版日期:2021-09-25 发布日期:2021-10-09
通讯作者: 毛晓红
作者简介:* 毛晓红,E-mail: mxh6602@163.com
傅琳琳(1988—),女,浙江诸暨人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事农业产业及其组织发展研究。E-mail: FULL19881129@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71903178);浙江省发展和改革委员会项目(NG2019-06);浙江省科技厅软科学研究计划(2020C35004)

Evaluation of comprehensive grain production capacity in Zhejiang Province in 2013-2018

FU Linlin(), MAO Xiaohong^*(), MAO Xiaobao, CAI Rixuan

Institute of Rural Development, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China

Received:2021-01-05 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-10-09
Contact: MAO Xiaohong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于可持续发展视角,从资源禀赋水平、要素投入水平、科技装备水平、粮食产出水平、可持续发展水平等5个方面构建了包含27项二级指标的粮食综合生产能力评价指标体系,并利用熵值法对浙江省2013—2018年的粮食综合生产能力进行评价分析。结果显示,2013—2018年,浙江省粮食综合生产能力总体保持增长趋势。其中,资源禀赋水平下降趋势明显,要素投入水平和可持续发展水平整体增长态势良好,科技装备水平和粮食产出水平在波动中增长。相应地,从资源保护、要素投入、科技创新、产能提升、可持续发展等方面提出提高浙江省粮食综合生产能力的政策建议。

关键词: 粮食综合生产能力, 可持续发展, 熵值法, 浙江省

Abstract:

Based on the perspective of sustainable development, an evaluation system for the comprehensive grain production capacity was constructed consisting 5 aspects (factor endowment, factor input, sci-tech equipment, grain output and sustainable development), 27 second-level indicators. And, the comprehensive grain production capacity in Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2018 was revealed by using the entropy method. It was found that the comprehensive grain production capacity in Zhejiang Province kept an overall increasing trend during the period.In the five aspects mentioned above, factor endowment showed a downward trend; the overall trend of factor input and sustainable development kept steady growth; sci-tech equipment and grain output increased with fluctuations. Finally, relevant policy recommendations were put forward from aspects of resource protection, factor input, tech innovation, capacity improvement and sustainable development, etc.

Key words: comprehensive grain production capacity, sustainable development, entropy method, Zhejiang Province

中图分类号:

S-9
F326.1

傅琳琳, 毛晓红, 毛小报, 蔡日旋. 浙江省2013—2018年粮食综合生产能力评价[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(9): 1748-1758.

FU Linlin, MAO Xiaohong, MAO Xiaobao, CAI Rixuan. Evaluation of comprehensive grain production capacity in Zhejiang Province in 2013-2018[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(9): 1748-1758.

图/表 3

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一级指标 First-level indicator			二级指标 Second-level indicator
指标 Indicator	权重 Weight		指标 Indicator	解释 Description		方向 Direction	权重 Weight
B1:资源禀赋水平 Factor endowment	0.178 2		X1:人均耕地面积 Arable land area per person	耕地面积/年末常住人口 (Arable land area/permanent population at the year-end)/hm²		+	0.028 5
			X2:人均粮食播种面积 Grain sown area per person	粮食播种面积/年末常住人口 (Grain sown area/permanent population at the year-end)/hm²		+	0.066 7
			X3:人均水资源占有量 Water resources per person	水资源总量/年末常住人口 (Water resources/permanent population at the year-end)/m³		+	0.051 7
			X4:耕地质量水平 Arable land quality	标准农田中一等田占比 Proportion of the first-class land in standard farmland/%		+	0.031 3
B2:要素投入水平 Factor input	0.212 7		X5:人均农业固定资产投入 Investment in agricultural fixed assets per person	农业固定资产投资/农林牧渔业从业人员数 (Investment in agricultural fixed assets/ population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/yuan		+	0.044 1
			X6:政策支持水平(农林水事务支出比重) Policy support (proportion of expenditure on agriculture, forestry &water conservancy)	农林水事务支出/地方一般公共预算支出 (Expenditure on agriculture, forestry & water conservancy/local general public budget expenditure)/%		+	0.027 3
			X7:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中种粮大户数 Number of large-scale farmer households per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	种粮大户数/农林牧渔从业人员数(以万人计) Number of large-scale farmer households/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.034 0
			X8:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中粮食产业家庭农场数量 Number of family farms in grain industry per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	粮食产业家庭农场数量/农林牧渔从业人员(以万人计) Number of family farms in grain industry/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.037 8
			X9:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中粮食产业合作社数 Number of cooperatives in grain industry per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	粮食产业合作社数/农林牧渔从业人员数 (以万人计) Number of cooperatives in grain industry/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.033 0
			X10:粮食生产耕种收综合机械化水平 Integrated mechanization level of plowing, sowing & harvesting in grain production	粮食机耕率×40%+粮食机播率×30%+ 粮食机收率×30% (Mechanization level of plowing×40%+ mechanization level of sowing×30%+ mechanization level of harvesting×30%)/%		+	0.036 5
B3:科技装备水平 Sci-tech equipment	0.183 1		X11:稻谷主导品种推广面积占比 Proportion of promotion area of main rice varieties	稻谷主导品种推广面积/稻谷播种面积 (Promotion area of main rice varieties/ rice sown area)/%		+	0.036 6
			X12:粮油病虫害综合防治面积比重 Proportion of grain and oilseed area with integrated pest management		粮油病虫害综合防治面积/粮油播种面积 (Grain and oilseed area with integrated pest management/sown area of grain and oilseed)/%	+	0.040 7
			X13:水稻新技术栽培面积比重 Proportion of area using new rice farming technologies		水稻新技术栽培面积/水稻播种面积 (Area using new rice farming technologies/ rice sown area)/%	+	0.040 6
			X14:粮食加工能力 Grain processing capacity		机械脱出粮食数量/粮食总产量 (Quantity of grain produced by machinery/total grain output)/%	+	0.031 7
			X15:农村实用人才受教育程度 Education level of rural practical talents		农村实用人才培训人次/农、林、牧、渔业从业人员数 (Number of people times engaged in rural practical talent training/population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/%	+	0.033 5
B4:粮食产出水平 Grain output		0.239 5	X16:粮食总产量 Total grain output		当年粮食产量,从相关资料中直接读取 Grain output in current year, cited from relative references/(10⁴ t)	+	0.027 1
			X17:粮食生产稳定度 Stability of grain production		当年粮食产量/前5年平均粮食产量 (Grain output in current year/average grain output in previous five years)/%	+	0.026 7
			X18:单位播种面积粮食产量 Grain output per unit sown area		粮食产量/粮食播种面积 (Grain output/grain sown area)/(kg·hm^-2)	+	0.030 9
			X19:劳动生产率 Labor productivity		粮食产值/农、林、牧、渔业从业人员数 (Grain output value/population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/yuan	+	0.078 3
			X20:粮食规模经营比重 Proportion of scale operation of grain production		粮食规模经营比重,从相关资料中直接读取 Proportion of scale operation of grain production, cited from relative references/%	+	0.035 8
			X21:成本利润率 Cost-to-profit ratio		晚籼稻成本利润率 Cost-to-profit ratio of late indica rice/%	+	0.040 7
B5:可持续发展水平 Sustainable development		0.186 4	X22:农作物秸秆综合利用率 Integrated utilization rate of crop straw		农作物秸秆综合利用率,从相关资料中直接读取 Integrated utilization rate of crop straw, cited from relative references/%	+	0.032 2
			X23:节水灌溉面积比重 Proportion of area with water-saving irrigation		节水灌溉面积/耕地总面积 (Area with water-saving irrigation/arable land area)/%	+	0.024 0
			X24:农业灌溉水利用系数 Irrigation water use coefficient		农业灌溉水利用系数,从相关资料中直接读取 Irrigation water use coefficient, cited from relative references/%	+	0.037 0
			X25:粮食化肥使用强度 Fertilizer use intensity		每公顷晚籼稻的化肥折纯用量 Pure amount of fertilizer used per hectare for late indica rice/(kg·hm^-2)	-	0.025 8
			X26:农药施用强度 Pesticide use intensity		农药施用量/农作物播种面积 (Amount of pesticide used/sown area of crops)/(kg·hm^-2)	-	0.043 9
			X27:农业抗灾能力(农业成灾率) agricultural disaster resilience (disaster-suffering rate)		农业成灾面积/农业受灾总面积 (Disaster-suffering area/disaster-affected area)/%	-	0.023 5

一级指标 First-level indicator			二级指标 Second-level indicator
指标 Indicator	权重 Weight		指标 Indicator	解释 Description		方向 Direction	权重 Weight
B1:资源禀赋水平 Factor endowment	0.178 2		X1:人均耕地面积 Arable land area per person	耕地面积/年末常住人口 (Arable land area/permanent population at the year-end)/hm²		+	0.028 5
			X2:人均粮食播种面积 Grain sown area per person	粮食播种面积/年末常住人口 (Grain sown area/permanent population at the year-end)/hm²		+	0.066 7
			X3:人均水资源占有量 Water resources per person	水资源总量/年末常住人口 (Water resources/permanent population at the year-end)/m³		+	0.051 7
			X4:耕地质量水平 Arable land quality	标准农田中一等田占比 Proportion of the first-class land in standard farmland/%		+	0.031 3
B2:要素投入水平 Factor input	0.212 7		X5:人均农业固定资产投入 Investment in agricultural fixed assets per person	农业固定资产投资/农林牧渔业从业人员数 (Investment in agricultural fixed assets/ population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/yuan		+	0.044 1
			X6:政策支持水平(农林水事务支出比重) Policy support (proportion of expenditure on agriculture, forestry &water conservancy)	农林水事务支出/地方一般公共预算支出 (Expenditure on agriculture, forestry & water conservancy/local general public budget expenditure)/%		+	0.027 3
			X7:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中种粮大户数 Number of large-scale farmer households per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	种粮大户数/农林牧渔从业人员数(以万人计) Number of large-scale farmer households/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.034 0
			X8:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中粮食产业家庭农场数量 Number of family farms in grain industry per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	粮食产业家庭农场数量/农林牧渔从业人员(以万人计) Number of family farms in grain industry/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.037 8
			X9:每万农林牧渔业从业人员中粮食产业合作社数 Number of cooperatives in grain industry per 10 000 population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery	粮食产业合作社数/农林牧渔从业人员数 (以万人计) Number of cooperatives in grain industry/ population (in ten thousand) employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery		+	0.033 0
			X10:粮食生产耕种收综合机械化水平 Integrated mechanization level of plowing, sowing & harvesting in grain production	粮食机耕率×40%+粮食机播率×30%+ 粮食机收率×30% (Mechanization level of plowing×40%+ mechanization level of sowing×30%+ mechanization level of harvesting×30%)/%		+	0.036 5
B3:科技装备水平 Sci-tech equipment	0.183 1		X11:稻谷主导品种推广面积占比 Proportion of promotion area of main rice varieties	稻谷主导品种推广面积/稻谷播种面积 (Promotion area of main rice varieties/ rice sown area)/%		+	0.036 6
			X12:粮油病虫害综合防治面积比重 Proportion of grain and oilseed area with integrated pest management		粮油病虫害综合防治面积/粮油播种面积 (Grain and oilseed area with integrated pest management/sown area of grain and oilseed)/%	+	0.040 7
			X13:水稻新技术栽培面积比重 Proportion of area using new rice farming technologies		水稻新技术栽培面积/水稻播种面积 (Area using new rice farming technologies/ rice sown area)/%	+	0.040 6
			X14:粮食加工能力 Grain processing capacity		机械脱出粮食数量/粮食总产量 (Quantity of grain produced by machinery/total grain output)/%	+	0.031 7
			X15:农村实用人才受教育程度 Education level of rural practical talents		农村实用人才培训人次/农、林、牧、渔业从业人员数 (Number of people times engaged in rural practical talent training/population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/%	+	0.033 5
B4:粮食产出水平 Grain output		0.239 5	X16:粮食总产量 Total grain output		当年粮食产量,从相关资料中直接读取 Grain output in current year, cited from relative references/(10⁴ t)	+	0.027 1
			X17:粮食生产稳定度 Stability of grain production		当年粮食产量/前5年平均粮食产量 (Grain output in current year/average grain output in previous five years)/%	+	0.026 7
			X18:单位播种面积粮食产量 Grain output per unit sown area		粮食产量/粮食播种面积 (Grain output/grain sown area)/(kg·hm^-2)	+	0.030 9
			X19:劳动生产率 Labor productivity		粮食产值/农、林、牧、渔业从业人员数 (Grain output value/population employed in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry & fishery)/yuan	+	0.078 3
			X20:粮食规模经营比重 Proportion of scale operation of grain production		粮食规模经营比重,从相关资料中直接读取 Proportion of scale operation of grain production, cited from relative references/%	+	0.035 8
			X21:成本利润率 Cost-to-profit ratio		晚籼稻成本利润率 Cost-to-profit ratio of late indica rice/%	+	0.040 7
B5:可持续发展水平 Sustainable development		0.186 4	X22:农作物秸秆综合利用率 Integrated utilization rate of crop straw		农作物秸秆综合利用率,从相关资料中直接读取 Integrated utilization rate of crop straw, cited from relative references/%	+	0.032 2
			X23:节水灌溉面积比重 Proportion of area with water-saving irrigation		节水灌溉面积/耕地总面积 (Area with water-saving irrigation/arable land area)/%	+	0.024 0
			X24:农业灌溉水利用系数 Irrigation water use coefficient		农业灌溉水利用系数,从相关资料中直接读取 Irrigation water use coefficient, cited from relative references/%	+	0.037 0
			X25:粮食化肥使用强度 Fertilizer use intensity		每公顷晚籼稻的化肥折纯用量 Pure amount of fertilizer used per hectare for late indica rice/(kg·hm^-2)	-	0.025 8
			X26:农药施用强度 Pesticide use intensity		农药施用量/农作物播种面积 (Amount of pesticide used/sown area of crops)/(kg·hm^-2)	-	0.043 9
			X27:农业抗灾能力(农业成灾率) agricultural disaster resilience (disaster-suffering rate)		农业成灾面积/农业受灾总面积 (Disaster-suffering area/disaster-affected area)/%	-	0.023 5

年份 Year	粮食综合生产能力 Comprehensive grain production capacity	资源禀赋水平 Factor endowment	要素投入水平 Factor input	科技装备水平 Sci-tech equipment	粮食产出水平 Grain output	可持续发展水平 Sustainable development
2013	12.62	3.22	1.84	3.01	3.41	1.14
2014	15.97	5.04	2.84	2.98	3.08	2.03
2015	15.78	4.26	3.40	3.03	2.69	2.41
2016	16.01	2.76	4.62	2.28	2.27	4.06
2017	17.16	1.60	4.74	2.08	4.23	4.51
2018	22.56	0.97	3.84	4.95	8.29	4.51

年份 Year	粮食综合生产能力 Comprehensive grain production capacity	资源禀赋水平 Factor endowment	要素投入水平 Factor input	科技装备水平 Sci-tech equipment	粮食产出水平 Grain output	可持续发展水平 Sustainable development
2013	12.62	3.22	1.84	3.01	3.41	1.14
2014	15.97	5.04	2.84	2.98	3.08	2.03
2015	15.78	4.26	3.40	3.03	2.69	2.41
2016	16.01	2.76	4.62	2.28	2.27	4.06
2017	17.16	1.60	4.74	2.08	4.23	4.51
2018	22.56	0.97	3.84	4.95	8.29	4.51

浙江省2013—2018年粮食综合生产能力评价

Evaluation of comprehensive grain production capacity in Zhejiang Province in 2013-2018

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