中国化肥施用强度的驱动因素分解与控制路径研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

浙江农业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 1956-1970.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

中国化肥施用强度的驱动因素分解与控制路径研究

陶源¹(), 周玉玺², 胡继连³^,^*()

1.山东科技大学财经学院,山东泰安 271019
2.山东农业大学公共管理学院,山东泰安 271018
3.山东农业大学马克思主义学院,山东泰安 271018

收稿日期:2020-10-27 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-11-02
通讯作者: 胡继连
作者简介:*胡继连,E-mail: jlhu@sdau.edu.cn
陶源(1992—),女,山东泰安人,博士,讲师,研究方向为农业资源与环境管理。E-mail: tyrare1125@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金(19BJL171)

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

TAO Yuan¹(), ZHOU Yuxi², HU Jilian³^,^*()

1. College of Finance and Economics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Tai’an 271019, China
2. College of Public Administration, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
3. College of Marxism, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China

Received:2020-10-27 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-11-02
Contact: HU Jilian

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

20世纪90年代以来,中国(不含港、澳、台,下同)化肥施用量呈现持续增长的态势,直至2016年首次出现负增长,但化肥施用强度并没有实质性的下降。当前,中国的化肥施用强度仍明显高于国际安全标准。在分析1990—2018年中国化肥施用量与施用强度的基础上,利用因素分解模型,从高耗肥农作物和高强度区域2个层面剖析结构份额和效率份额同化肥施用强度变动之间的关系。结果表明:研究时段内,中国化肥施用量与化肥施用强度整体呈上升趋势,不同区域间农作物种植结构的差别是造成宏观层面不同区域化肥施用强度存在差异的重要原因之一。在高耗肥农作物层面,种植业结构偏向水果、蔬菜是造成高耗肥农作物上化肥施用强度增长的主导因素,结构驱动率高达66.74%。在高强度区域层面,结构份额和效率份额共同促使化肥施用强度增加,但2017年以来,效率份额的驱动作用明显提高。经济发展水平、农业劳动力转移、城镇化发展水平等因素对化肥施用强度具有显著(P<0.1)影响。未来,应进一步调整优化农作物种植结构,适当减少高耗肥农作物种植面积,同时不断推进节肥技术推广,注重提高化肥投入的技术效率。

关键词: 化肥施用强度, 因素分解, 结构驱动率, 效率驱动率, 控制路径

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, the application of chemical fertilizers in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, the same as below) has shown a trend of continuous growth. In 2016, there was a negative growth for the first time, but the application intensity of chemical fertilizers did not substantially decrease. Currently, the application intensity of chemical fertilizers in China is still higher than the international safety standard. Based on the analysis of the current status of chemical fertilizer application in China, a factor decomposition model was introduced to scientifically analyze the relationship within structure share, efficiency share and changes in chemical fertilizer application intensity from two aspects of high-fertilizer crops and high-intensity areas. The results showed that the application amount and intensity of chemical fertilizer in China were on the rise as a whole in 1990-2018. The difference in planting structure within regions was one of the important reasons for the regional differences in chemical fertilizer application intensity. At the aspects of high-fertilizer crops, the biased planting structure toward fruits and vegetables was the leading factor for the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity, and the structure drive rate reached 66.74%. At the aspect of high-intensity areas, the structure share and efficiency share both contributed to the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity. However, the efficiency drive effect has increased since 2017. Factors, such as the level of economic development, agricultural labor transfer, and the urbanization development level had significant (P<0.1) impact on the chemical fertilizer application intensity. Therefore, more efforts should be devoted to the adjustment and optimization of planting structure by reducing the sowing area of high-fertilizer crops, as well as the improvement in the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizers via promotion of fertilizer-saving technologies, to reduce chemical fertilizer application intensity in the future.

Key words: fertilizer application intensity, factor decomposition, structure drive rate, efficiency drive rate, control path

中图分类号:

S147.2
S181

陶源, 周玉玺, 胡继连. 中国化肥施用强度的驱动因素分解与控制路径研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(10): 1956-1970.

TAO Yuan, ZHOU Yuxi, HU Jilian. Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(10): 1956-1970.

图/表 10

参考文献 26

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年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	全国平均 National average	北部高原地区 Northern plateau	东北地区 Northeast area	西北地区 Northwest area	西南地区 Southwest area	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaihai area	长江中下游地区 The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River	华南地区 South China	青藏地区 Qinghai- Tibet area
1997	258.54	191.95	204.72	208.08	193.46	312.65	288.60	307.85	126.79
1998	262.27	197.75	208.76	211.17	192.99	322.59	295.36	296.69	119.30
1999	263.75	204.55	211.48	198.65	187.60	330.89	293.21	305.40	124.78
2000	265.28	203.88	196.36	201.49	197.61	334.64	291.96	319.91	123.61
2001	273.19	217.34	184.20	210.63	200.19	342.91	307.89	336.92	134.23
2002	280.62	217.20	195.09	215.62	205.02	354.89	311.29	353.60	140.26
2003	289.45	239.79	197.71	224.01	209.20	357.45	323.57	368.45	144.19
2004	301.96	246.92	227.27	236.33	214.97	374.63	330.54	385.13	150.45
2005	306.53	254.44	217.10	246.34	218.69	387.37	335.35	388.08	157.37
2006	313.83	263.56	223.73	259.35	223.39	398.01	339.43	400.71	160.49
2007	332.83	277.65	222.47	265.77	248.20	415.78	362.57	466.40	162.75
2008	335.26	287.04	227.52	275.63	249.34	415.76	364.07	467.21	169.46
2009	340.67	307.30	239.85	276.55	249.73	423.50	363.87	470.13	169.53
2010	346.15	322.41	250.71	288.90	252.81	431.86	361.36	474.57	171.51
2011	351.50	328.47	263.17	298.40	260.02	436.08	364.12	476.61	166.01
2012	357.30	356.72	272.90	308.77	260.48	440.75	365.03	477.81	179.15
2013	359.11	366.36	281.18	317.99	258.04	442.17	362.77	477.83	192.69
2014	362.44	367.58	286.39	344.41	260.69	443.74	360.60	491.63	192.62
2015	361.99	367.14	287.75	346.46	262.80	444.22	356.01	490.42	198.47
2016	359.08	363.77	286.24	339.48	262.36	441.01	350.68	493.75	179.44
2017	352.27	348.49	250.82	347.75	262.21	429.87	349.01	553.78	175.44
2018	340.77	340.40	247.94	343.61	250.79	419.10	336.58	514.59	163.10

中国化肥施用强度的驱动因素分解与控制路径研究

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

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Metrics

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行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity		行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity
行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018	行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018
全国平均National average	318.85	340.77	黑龙江Heilongjiang	161.26	167.38
北京Beijing	483.41	703.28	上海Shanghai	327.56	297.56
天津Tianjin	435.01	393.66	江苏Jiangsu	429.35	388.95
河北Hebei	348.08	381.11	浙江Zhejiang	340.55	393.19
山西Shanxi	270.36	308.28	安徽Anhui	335.19	355.49
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	211.24	252.38	福建Fujian	512.95	701.83
辽宁Liaoning	331.40	344.66	江西Jiangxi	234.07	221.75
吉林Jilin	326.71	375.44	山东Shandong	412.93	379.44
河南Henan	407.74	468.63	贵州Guizhou	168.47	163.40
湖北Hubei	395.50	371.94	云南Yunnan	264.79	315.49
湖南Hunan	267.06	299.10	西藏Tibet	178.99	192.31
广东Guangdong	463.09	540.50	陕西Shaanxi	417.98	561.23
广西Guangxi	351.34	426.96	甘肃Gansu	203.66	220.48
海南Hainan	479.47	678.92	青海Qinghai	150.05	148.93
重庆Chongqing	245.60	278.33	宁夏Ningxia	238.22	329.73
四川Sichuan	241.48	244.61	新疆Xinjiang	327.62	420.17

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate					效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997—1998	-7.38	-52.04	7.53	-19.18	56.32	107.38	22.77	14.57	75.35	-5.32
1998—1999	13.62	0.13	-2.08	2.16	13.42	86.38	0.38	-1.82	66.11	21.70
1999—2000	59.34	1.24	-4.35	11.81	50.63	-58.34	2.82	3.80	-80.01	15.06
2000—2002	32.88	-0.62	3.11	5.16	25.22	67.12	-0.24	-3.83	68.75	2.44
2002—2003	20.70	-0.31	0.43	11.51	9.06	79.30	0.03	1.83	58.22	19.23
2003—2004	-0.07	0.02	0.48	-6.01	5.48	100.07	2.37	2.27	75.44	19.99
2004—2005	-3.81	-1.08	0.86	-4.7	1.11	103.81	-0.39	-0.39	81.77	22.82
2005—2006	22.09	6.62	-4.25	-25.88	45.59	77.91	-15.94	-20.32	269.11	-154.95
2006—2007	-43.34	-0.50	9.51	-12.58	-40.77	143.34	-0.04	8.13	109.37	26.29
2007—2008	-67.91	-5.07	-11.07	-16.27	-35.5	167.90	1.18	28.56	15.60	122.57
2008—2009	-5.02	-1.13	-13.03	17.91	-8.77	105.02	-4.11	9.10	-140.47	240.5
2009—2010	-12.17	-0.45	-0.93	4.33	-15.12	112.17	1.25	6.65	67.26	37.01
2010—2011	47.44	2.31	-0.45	-3.40	48.97	52.56	-0.27	1.89	13.22	37.71
2011—2012	-38.67	-5.00	-2.66	-5.32	-25.68	138.67	-2.05	-3.67	64.49	79.92
2012—2013	-16.59	-1.88	2.54	15.42	-32.68	116.59	2.75	-27.22	-14.53	155.59
2013—2014	-27.54	5.69	5.31	-29.33	-9.22	127.54	0.49	-0.83	-58.62	186.50
2014—2015	51.02	6.33	13.88	39.51	-8.70	48.98	0.46	0.77	23.67	24.07
2015—2016	-96.91	-5.39	-16.49	-65.71	-9.33	196.91	0.74	11.54	-93.86	278.49
2016—2017	45.55	-3.33	-2.32	23.42	27.78	54.45	-0.79	-6.92	53.36	8.79
2017—2018	108.65	-4.28	3.75	74.75	34.43	-8.65	0.97	-9.26	-114.25	113.89
1997—2018	66.74	-5.48	-0.44	26.23	46.43	33.26	2.55	1.98	8.85	19.88

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate			效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China
1997—1998	565.13	49.45	515.69	-465.13	330.89	-796.03
1998—1999	55.98	25.56	30.42	44.02	13.55	30.47
1999—2000	68.12	30.96	37.17	31.88	3.53	28.35
2000—2001	50.16	9.58	40.57	49.84	13.02	36.83
2001—2002	53.66	13.89	39.77	46.34	18.71	27.62
2002—2003	59.19	21.16	38.04	40.81	3.18	37.63
2003—2004	21.67	1.45	20.22	78.33	26.22	52.11
2004—2005	31.86	-28.97	60.83	68.14	45.80	22.34
2005—2006	36.94	-10.25	47.19	63.06	17.44	45.62
2006—2007	33.03	-3.75	36.78	66.97	6.79	60.18
2007—2008	89.77	-12.57	102.34	10.23	-0.10	10.33
2008—2009	22.35	7.19	15.16	77.65	39.68	37.97
2009—2010	32.59	10.33	22.26	67.41	28.39	39.02
2010—2011	62.20	11.74	50.46	16.80	21.00	-4.20
2011—2012	69.90	20.08	49.82	30.10	18.09	12.00
2012—2013	97.97	71.77	26.20	2.03	1.95	0.08
2013—2014	-61.39	-198.57	137.18	161.39	7.06	154.33
2014—2015	78.30	4.22	74.08	21.70	-3.88	25.58
2015—2016	73.50	-1.60	75.10	26.50	-15.21	41.71
2016—2017	-102.90	-125.86	22.95	202.90	-13.35	216.25
2017—2018	-58.19	-0.69	-57.50	158.19	11.56	146.63
1997—2018	50.58	-9.86	60.45	49.42	10.65	38.77

变量 Variable	水果Fruit
变量 Variable	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P
人均GDP GDP per capita	0.661^*	0.318	0.055	0.381^***	0.127	0.009
人均GDP的二次方 Quadratic of GDP per capita	-11.667^**	5.346	0.045	-5.536^**	2.159	0.022
消费结构升级 Consumption structure upgrade	0.116	0.469	0.808	0.118	0.329	0.725
农业劳动力转移 Agricultural labor transfer	5.641^**	2.200	0.022	3.227^***	0.892	0.003
城镇化发展水平 Urbanization development level	2.897^**	1.460	0.066	-1.345^**	0.583	0.036
常数项 Constant	-4.396	8.974	0.631	3.277	5.680	0.573

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