中国农业中间投入温室气体排放与减排潜力

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.11.21

浙江农业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (11): 2185-2194.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.11.21

中国农业中间投入温室气体排放与减排潜力

甄伟^a(), 庄鸿源^a, 米松华^b^,^*()

a.浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江杭州 310018
b.浙江财经大学中国乡村振兴研究院,浙江杭州 310018

收稿日期:2021-04-23 出版日期:2021-11-25 发布日期:2021-11-26
通讯作者: 米松华
作者简介:*米松华,E-mail: wzhwmt@aliyun.com
甄伟(1987—),男,辽宁朝阳人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为资源与环境政策、农业可持续发展、投入产出分析。E-mail: zhenweiperfect@163.com
基金资助:
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(21NDQN250YB);国家自然科学基金(71904128);浙江省软科学研究计划(2020C35062)

Analysis of agricultural intermediate input greenhouse gas emissions and emission reduction potential in China

ZHEN Wei^a(), ZHUANG Hongyuan^a, MI Songhua^b^,^*()

a. School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
b. China Institute of Rural Revitalization, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China

Received:2021-04-23 Online:2021-11-25 Published:2021-11-26
Contact: MI Songhua

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用多区域投入产出分析,分别对2007年和2017年中国(除香港、澳门、台湾、西藏外)的30个省级行政区的农业中间投入温室气体排放进行测算,以厘清关键来源产业与关键中介产业,并分别对其减排潜力进行量化。结果表明:2007—2017年,中国农业中间投入温室气体排放占农业隐含温室气体排放总量的73.9%~89.5%。2007年和2017年,针对农业中间投入温室气体排放,各识别出13个关键来源产业和13个关键中介产业,应将其作为推动农业中间投入温室气体减排的关键。2007—2017年上述产业的分布变化,表现出明显的分散化趋势。基于2017年数据判断,13个关键来源产业的减排潜力要高于13个关键中介产业。

关键词: 农业中间投入, 温室气体排放, 介数中心度分析, 敏感性分析

Abstract:

By using the multi-regional input-output analysis, the agricultural intermediate input greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 30 provincial regions of China (Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet excluded ) in 2007 and 2017 were measured. The crucial source sectors and crucial intermediate sectors for agricultural intermediate input GHG emissions were identified and their reduction potentials were further revealed. It was shown that the agricultural intermediate input GHG emission accounted for 73.9%-89.5% of agricultural embodied GHG emissions in 2007-2017. Thirteen crucial source sectors and 13 crucial intermediate sectors for agricultural intermediate input GHG emissions were identified in 2007 and 2017, respectively. The distribution of these identified sectors exhibited decentralization trend. Based on the data of 2017, the 13 crucial source sectors had greater emission reduction potential than that of the 13 crucial intermediate sectors.

Key words: agricultural intermediate input, greenhouse gas emission, betweenness analysis, sensitivity analysis

中图分类号:

甄伟, 庄鸿源, 米松华. 中国农业中间投入温室气体排放与减排潜力[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(11): 2185-2194.

ZHEN Wei, ZHUANG Hongyuan, MI Songhua. Analysis of agricultural intermediate input greenhouse gas emissions and emission reduction potential in China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(11): 2185-2194.

图/表 5

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代码 Code	产业名称 Sector name	代码 Code	产业名称 Sector name
S1	农林牧渔产品及其服务业 Farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and their services	S16	通用和专用设备制造业Ordinary and special equipment
S2	煤炭开采和洗选业Coal mining and washing	S17	交通运输设备制造业Transportation equipment
S3	石油和天然气开采业Petroleum and natural gas extraction	S18	电气机械和器材制造业Electric equipment and machinery
S4	金属矿采选业 Metal ores mining and dressing	S19	通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业 Electronic and telecommunications equipment
S5	非金属矿和其他矿采选业 Nonmetal and other minerals mining and dressing	S20	仪器仪表和文化办公用机械制造业 Instruments, meters, cultural and office machinery
S6	食品制造和烟草加工业 Food production and tobacco processing	S21	其他制造业 Other manufacturing industry
S7	纺织业 Textile industry	S22	电力和热力的生产和供应业 Electric power and steam production and supply
S8	纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业 Garments and other fiber products	S23	燃气和水的生产与供应业 Gas and water production and supply
S9	木材加工和家具制造业 Timber processing and furniture manufacturing	S24	建筑业 Construction
S10	造纸印刷和文教体育用品制造业 Paper printing, educational and sports goods production	S25	交通运输、仓储和邮政业 Transport, storage and postal services
S11	石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业 Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing	S26	批发和零售业 Wholesale and retail trade
S12	化学产品业Chemical products	S27	住宿和餐饮业Accommodation and catering services
S13	非金属矿物制品业Nonmetal mineral products	S28	租赁和商业服务业Leasing and business services
S14	金属冶炼和压延加工业 Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals	S29	科学研究和技术服务业 Scientific research and technical services
S15	金属制品业Metal products	S30	其他服务业 Other services

代码 Code	产业名称 Sector name	代码 Code	产业名称 Sector name
S1	农林牧渔产品及其服务业 Farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and their services	S16	通用和专用设备制造业Ordinary and special equipment
S2	煤炭开采和洗选业Coal mining and washing	S17	交通运输设备制造业Transportation equipment
S3	石油和天然气开采业Petroleum and natural gas extraction	S18	电气机械和器材制造业Electric equipment and machinery
S4	金属矿采选业 Metal ores mining and dressing	S19	通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业 Electronic and telecommunications equipment
S5	非金属矿和其他矿采选业 Nonmetal and other minerals mining and dressing	S20	仪器仪表和文化办公用机械制造业 Instruments, meters, cultural and office machinery
S6	食品制造和烟草加工业 Food production and tobacco processing	S21	其他制造业 Other manufacturing industry
S7	纺织业 Textile industry	S22	电力和热力的生产和供应业 Electric power and steam production and supply
S8	纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品业 Garments and other fiber products	S23	燃气和水的生产与供应业 Gas and water production and supply
S9	木材加工和家具制造业 Timber processing and furniture manufacturing	S24	建筑业 Construction
S10	造纸印刷和文教体育用品制造业 Paper printing, educational and sports goods production	S25	交通运输、仓储和邮政业 Transport, storage and postal services
S11	石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业 Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing	S26	批发和零售业 Wholesale and retail trade
S12	化学产品业Chemical products	S27	住宿和餐饮业Accommodation and catering services
S13	非金属矿物制品业Nonmetal mineral products	S28	租赁和商业服务业Leasing and business services
S14	金属冶炼和压延加工业 Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals	S29	科学研究和技术服务业 Scientific research and technical services
S15	金属制品业Metal products	S30	其他服务业 Other services

区域 Region	2007			2017
区域 Region	G_emb/Mt	G_int/Mt	(G_int/G_emb)/%	G_emb/Mt	G_int/Mt	(G_int/G_emb)/%
河北Hebei	20.4	19.8	96.8	7.4	5.8	77.5
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	8.8	8.2	93.2	11.9	6.9	58.1
辽宁Liaoning	12.4	11.5	92.9	7.4	5.9	79.3
吉林Jilin	15.7	14.8	93.8	1.1	0.9	67.8
黑龙江Heilongjiang	10.6	9.9	93.6	5.2	3.5	68.1
江苏Jiangsu	6.0	5.5	92.4	6.3	4.7	74.3
安徽Anhui	13.0	12.2	93.5	4.7	3.8	80.7
江西Jiangxi	9.3	8.3	88.7	4.1	3.4	82.5
山东Shandong	11.5	11.2	97.7	5.5	4.2	75.4
河南Henan	11.5	10.9	95.1	6.6	5.4	82.7
湖北Hubei	14.7	13.9	94.5	10.8	8.3	76.4
湖南Hunan	17.5	16.5	94.2	8.1	5.1	63.0
四川Sichuan	12.2	11.2	92.2	6.7	5.2	76.8
北京Beijing	1.8	1.2	67.6	1.0	0.8	76.9
天津Tianjin	0.9	0.6	71.9	0.9	0.5	54.1
山西Shanxi	5.6	4.6	81.6	7.5	4.9	65.8
上海Shanghai	4.3	3.1	72.4	1.2	0.6	47.0
浙江Zhejiang	8.9	8.1	90.2	5.2	3.3	63.8
福建Fujian	6.0	5.2	86.9	4.4	3.3	76.3
广东Guangdong	10.9	10.0	91.6	6.5	4.6	71.9
广西Guangxi	9.2	8.1	88.1	6.0	5.0	83.1
海南Hainan	3.6	2.3	64.0	2.6	1.9	74.3
重庆Chongqing	4.6	3.3	72.6	3.4	2.6	75.2
贵州Guizhou	7.1	5.8	80.7	7.2	5.2	72.6
云南Yunnan	10.8	9.4	86.6	7.1	5.3	74.7
陕西Shaanxi	10.4	9.1	87.3	3.0	2.6	87.0
甘肃Gansu	7.8	6.3	80.7	4.4	3.5	80.1
青海Qinghai	3.4	1.4	40.4	0.6	0.5	82.4
宁夏Ningxia	4.1	2.7	66.9	1.8	1.7	94.1
新疆Xinjiang	8.3	7.7	92.3	10.7	8.3	77.9
全国Nationwide	271.3	242.8	89.5	159.3	117.7	73.9
粮食主产区Major crop-producing areas	163.6	153.9	94.1	85.8	63.1	73.5
非粮食主产区	107.7	88.9	82.5	73.5	54.6	74.3
Non-major crop-producing areas

区域 Region	2007			2017
区域 Region	G_emb/Mt	G_int/Mt	(G_int/G_emb)/%	G_emb/Mt	G_int/Mt	(G_int/G_emb)/%
河北Hebei	20.4	19.8	96.8	7.4	5.8	77.5
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	8.8	8.2	93.2	11.9	6.9	58.1
辽宁Liaoning	12.4	11.5	92.9	7.4	5.9	79.3
吉林Jilin	15.7	14.8	93.8	1.1	0.9	67.8
黑龙江Heilongjiang	10.6	9.9	93.6	5.2	3.5	68.1
江苏Jiangsu	6.0	5.5	92.4	6.3	4.7	74.3
安徽Anhui	13.0	12.2	93.5	4.7	3.8	80.7
江西Jiangxi	9.3	8.3	88.7	4.1	3.4	82.5
山东Shandong	11.5	11.2	97.7	5.5	4.2	75.4
河南Henan	11.5	10.9	95.1	6.6	5.4	82.7
湖北Hubei	14.7	13.9	94.5	10.8	8.3	76.4
湖南Hunan	17.5	16.5	94.2	8.1	5.1	63.0
四川Sichuan	12.2	11.2	92.2	6.7	5.2	76.8
北京Beijing	1.8	1.2	67.6	1.0	0.8	76.9
天津Tianjin	0.9	0.6	71.9	0.9	0.5	54.1
山西Shanxi	5.6	4.6	81.6	7.5	4.9	65.8
上海Shanghai	4.3	3.1	72.4	1.2	0.6	47.0
浙江Zhejiang	8.9	8.1	90.2	5.2	3.3	63.8
福建Fujian	6.0	5.2	86.9	4.4	3.3	76.3
广东Guangdong	10.9	10.0	91.6	6.5	4.6	71.9
广西Guangxi	9.2	8.1	88.1	6.0	5.0	83.1
海南Hainan	3.6	2.3	64.0	2.6	1.9	74.3
重庆Chongqing	4.6	3.3	72.6	3.4	2.6	75.2
贵州Guizhou	7.1	5.8	80.7	7.2	5.2	72.6
云南Yunnan	10.8	9.4	86.6	7.1	5.3	74.7
陕西Shaanxi	10.4	9.1	87.3	3.0	2.6	87.0
甘肃Gansu	7.8	6.3	80.7	4.4	3.5	80.1
青海Qinghai	3.4	1.4	40.4	0.6	0.5	82.4
宁夏Ningxia	4.1	2.7	66.9	1.8	1.7	94.1
新疆Xinjiang	8.3	7.7	92.3	10.7	8.3	77.9
全国Nationwide	271.3	242.8	89.5	159.3	117.7	73.9
粮食主产区Major crop-producing areas	163.6	153.9	94.1	85.8	63.1	73.5
非粮食主产区	107.7	88.9	82.5	73.5	54.6	74.3
Non-major crop-producing areas

关键来源产业 Crucial source sectors	敏感性 Sensitivity	关键中介产业 Crucial intermediate sectors	敏感性 Sensitivity
内蒙古-S22 Inner Mongolia-S22	0.063	湖北-S12 Hubei-S12	0.030
江苏-S22 Jiangsu-S22	0.034	新疆-S12 Xinjiang-S12	0.021
山东-S22 Shandong-S22	0.033	内蒙古-S12 Inner Mongolia-S12	0.021
辽宁-S22 Liaoning-S22	0.032	北京-S22 Beijing-S22	0.014
新疆-S22 Xinjiang-S22	0.031	江苏-S12 Jiangsu-S12	0.013
山西-S22 Shanxi-S22	0.030	湖南-S6 Hunan-S6	0.010
湖北-S22 Hubei-S22	0.026	山东-S12 Shandong-S12	0.010
新疆-S12 Xinjiang-S12	0.026	河北-S6 Hebei-S6	0.009
河北-S22 Hebei-S22	0.025	新疆-S1 Xinjiang-S1	0.009
河南-S22 Henan-S22	0.023	河南-S6 Henan-S6	0.007
安徽-S22 Anhui-S22	0.018	河北-S12 Hebei-S12	0.005
黑龙江-S22 Heilongjiang-S22	0.016	河南-S12 Henan-S12	0.004
陕西-S22 Shaanxi-S22	0.013	安徽-S12 Anhui-S12	0.004

中国农业中间投入温室气体排放与减排潜力

Analysis of agricultural intermediate input greenhouse gas emissions and emission reduction potential in China

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