关键词: 晚稻, 气象因子, 产量预报

Abstract: Based on the meteorological record including daily mean temperature， daily precipitation， total sunshine hours and late rice yield data from 1980 to 2012 in Jinhua， the relationship between meteorological change and late rice yield was analyzed， and a forecast model was thus established. It was shown that the yield of late rice kept on growing in the past 30 years. The increase rate was greater in the 1980s， and it slowed down since 1990s. Meanwhile， temperature increased quickly， especially during 2003-2009. But， there was no obvious change trend for precipitation. The relative meteorological yield of late rice was significantly negatively correlated with the average temperature in mid\|July and mid\|August， and accumulated temperature from mid\|August to early September， yet positively correlated with precipitation in mid\|July and sunshine hours in early September. The historical fitting error rate of the established forecast model was 431%， and the predicted late rice yield in 2010-2012 by this model were close to the real data， with an error rate of 262%.

Key words: late rice, meteorological factors, yield forecast