关键词: 应用气象学；低温冻害；高温热害；变化趋势；Mann\, Kendall检验；枇杷

Abstract: Based on the daily temperature observation data from Lishui meteorological station during 1953 to 2013，the critical temperature in loquat fruit growth was determined. The methods such as multi\|scale analysis，Mann\|Kendall test were used to analyze the climatic change in loquat growth，and to assess the impact of low temperature frozen injury and heat injury on loquat growth. The results showed that： the critical temperature of flowering，young fruit stage and maturity of loquat were at -5，-3 and 30℃， respectively，the flowering stages named as “the third flowers” was affected mostly by freezing，the possibility of frozen injury was the maximum in January in young fruit stage and the probability of heat injury was increased in maturity. The number of days less than -3℃ during loquat flowering significantly reduced，while the extreme minimum temperature increased significantly，especially in the 21st century；The most significant effects caused by high temperature on loquat mature were mainly in the 1990s，and the high temperature days ≥30℃ significantly increased. Therefore，the probability of frozen injury to loquat reduced，but heat injury increased in the mountain area of Lishui.

Key words: applied meteorology；frozen injury；heat injury；trend；Mann\, Kendall test；loquat