关键词: 草莓产量, 气象因子, 动态模型

Abstract: In this study, the key meteorological factors affecting strawberry yield were explored based on the strawberry yield and meteorological data observed in the strawberry experiment greenhouses of Cixi Meteorological Bureau from 2010 to 2014. Once accumulated regression analysis method was applied to construct suitable dynamic model for the yield of greenhouse strawberry in Zhejiang Province. The results indicated that the strawberry yield was mainly affected by average daily temperature, accumulated temperature (>5 ℃) and photosynthetic active radiation. There were obvious differences among the simulating accuracy of dynamic yield models built with different meteorological index. During the preliminary stage of strawberry harvest, the model based on T (daily average temperature) was more acceptable than that based on PTEP (physiological product of thermal effectiveness) and PAR (photosynthetically active radiation). During the other stage of strawberry harvest, the priority of the PTEP-based model was higher than that of PAR-based model,which was more acceptable than the T-based model. During the whole harvest period, the priority level of the models based on PTEP, PAR and T was similar to that during the exuberant and final stage.The simulating accuracy for each model was with obvious variation during different stages. For T-based model, the simulating accuracy during preliminary stage was higher than that during exuberant stage, and that during the final stage was the lowest. For PTEP and PAR-based model, the trend of accuracy was just opposite to that of T-based model. In February, all the three models were with low simulating accuracy.

Key words: strawberry yield, meteorological factors, dynamic model