1960—2019年中国水稻气候生长期水热资源变化趋势及其归因分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231263

浙江农业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 2575-2583.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231263

1960—2019年中国水稻气候生长期水热资源变化趋势及其归因分析

徐金勤¹^,²(), 邱新法³, 朱平²^,^*(), 肖潇⁴

1.江苏省农业气象重点实验室(南京信息工程大学),江苏南京 210044
2.广东省气象服务中心,广东广州 510640
3.南京信息工程大学生态与应用气象学院,江苏南京 210044
4.武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2023-11-07 出版日期:2024-11-25 发布日期:2024-11-27
作者简介:徐金勤(1995—),女,山东临沂人,博士,高级工程师,主要从事气候变化和气象灾害影响评价研究。E-mail:xujinqin0307@163.com
通讯作者: *朱平,E-mail:61231442@qq.com
基金资助:
江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金(JKLAM2303);国家重点研发计划(2019YFB2102003);广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2022M15)

Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

XU Jinqin¹^,²(), QIU Xinfa³, ZHU Ping²^,^*(), XIAO Xiao⁴

1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2. Guangdong Meteorological Service Center, Guangzhou 510640, China
3. School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4. Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2023-11-07 Online:2024-11-25 Published:2024-11-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于界限温度法确定水稻气候生长期指标,对比分析1960—2019年我国6个水稻种植主要农业区(东北平原区、黄淮海平原区、四川盆地及周边地区、长江中下游地区、云贵高原区和华南区)的水稻气候生长期及期间水热资源的变化特征,定量评价主要气候因子对水稻气候生长期间积温和湿润指数变化的具体贡献。结果表明:1960—2019年,研究区内水稻适播期均显著(P<0.05)提前(-0.08~-0.30 d·a^-1),适收期推迟(0.04~0.20 d·a^-1),气候生长期显著延长(0.1~0.5 d·a^-1)。水稻气候生长期间积温显著增加,湿润指数下降,水热资源变化类型普遍为暖干型。在6个农业区内,水稻气候生长期间积温的显著增加均由水稻气候生长期间持续日数的增加主导。除黄淮海平原区内水稻气候生长期间湿润指数的降低由降水量减少主导外,其他农业区内水稻气候生长期间湿润指数的降低均由潜在蒸散量的显著增加主导。未来,应当重视水稻气候生长期间持续日数和潜在蒸散量显著增加对水稻生产的影响。

关键词: 气候变暖, 水稻气候生长期, 水热资源变化

Abstract:

Based on the boundary temperature method, the climatological growth period indicators of rice were determined. The temporal variations of water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice in six agricultural regions in China (Northeast China Plain, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Southern China) were compared and analyzed. The specific contribution degree of major climate factors to the changes in water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice were quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the suitable sowing date of rice was significantly (P<0.05) advanced (-0.08 - -0.30 d·a^-1), the suitable harvest date was delayed (0.04-0.20 d·a^-1), and the climatological growth period was significantly prolonged (0.1-0.5 d·a^-1) in the study area during 1960—2019. The accumulated temperature of rice increased significantly, the humidity index decreased, and the variation type of water and thermal resources of rice in the study regions were warm-dry. In the six agricultural regions, the significant increase of accumulated temperature was generally dominated by the increase of the duration days during rice climatological growth period. The decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was dominated by a decrease in precipitation, while the decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in the other agricultural regions was dominated by the significant increase in the potential evapotranspiration. In the future, more attention should be paid to the effects of the significant increase in the duration days and potential evapotranspiration during rice climatological growth period on the rice production.

Key words: climate warming, rice climatological growth period, changes in water and thermal resources

中图分类号:

S162.3

徐金勤, 邱新法, 朱平, 肖潇. 1960—2019年中国水稻气候生长期水热资源变化趋势及其归因分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2024, 36(11): 2575-2583.

XU Jinqin, QIU Xinfa, ZHU Ping, XIAO Xiao. Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(11): 2575-2583.

图/表 5

表1 1960—2019年水稻适播期与适收期的年际变化率

Table 1 Interannual change rates of suitable sowing and harvest date for rice from 1960 to 2019 d·a-1

农业区Region	R_ssd	R_shd
R1	-0.08^*	0.04
R2	-0.10^*	0.09^*
R3	-0.20^**	0.05
R4	-0.20^**	0.10^*
R5	-0.20^**	0.20^**
R6	-0.30^**	0.20^**

表2 1960—2019年水稻气候生长期间积温和湿润指数的年际变化率

Table 2 Interannual change rates of accumulated temperature and humidity index during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019

农业区Region	R_at/(℃·d·a^-1)	R_hi/a^-1
R1	3.6^**	-0.003
R2	5.8^**	-0.003
R3	5.0^**	-0.005^**
R4	7.9^**	-0.001
R5	7.4^**	-0.004^*
R6	14.0^**	-0.003

表3 1960—2019年水稻气候生长期间持续日数、平均气温、降水量和潜在蒸散量的年际变化率

Table 3 Interannual change rates of duration days, average temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019

农业区 Region	R_dd/ (d·a^-1)	R_mt/ (℃·a^-1)	R_p/ (mm·a^-1)	R_pe/ (mm·a^-1)
R1	0.1^*	0.010^**	-0.5	0.8^**
R2	0.2^**	0.005	-1.0	0.6
R3	0.3^*	<0.001	-0.8	1.2^**
R4	0.3^**	0.003	1.3	1.0^*
R5	0.3^**	0.008^**	-0.7	1.3^**
R6	0.5^**	0.007^*	3.0^*	2.5^**

图1 热量(水分)因子贡献量之和与实际积温(湿润指数)变化量的对比

Fig.1 Comparison between the sum of the contribution of heat (water) factors and the change of actual accumulated temperature (humidity index)

图2 1960—2019年水稻气候生长期间热量和水分因子对积温和湿润指数变化的贡献量 R1,东北平原区;R2,黄淮海平原区;R3,四川盆地及周边地区;R4,长江中下游地区;R5,云贵高原区;R6,华南区。

Fig.2 Contribution of heat and water factors to changes in accumulated temperature and humidity index during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 R1, Northeast China Plain; R2, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; R3, Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions; R4, Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain; R5, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau; R6, Southern China.

参考文献 47

[1]	刘洋. 气候变化背景下我国农业水热资源时空演变格局研究[D]. 北京: 中国农业科学院, 2013.
	LIU Y. Analysis on the spatio-temporal variability and trends of agricultural water and thermal resources from climate change perspectives[D]. Beijing: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, 2013. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[2]	CHOU J M, XU Y, DONG W J, et al. Research on the variation characteristics of climatic elements from April to September in China’s main grain-producing areas[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019, 137(3): 3197-3207.
[3]	XIAO D P, ZHANG Y, BAI H Z, et al. Trends and climate response in the phenology of crops in Northeast China[J]. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2021, 9: 1287.
[4]	陈晓艺, 曹雯, 王晓东, 等. 淮河流域南部作物生长季农业气候资源特征分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2018, 27(6): 1005-1015.
	CHEN X Y, CAO W, WANG X D, et al. Analysis of agroclimatic resource characteristics of main crops growing season in the south of Huaihe River Basin[J]. Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2018, 27(6): 1005-1015. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[5]	李建, 江晓东, 杨沈斌, 等. 长江中下游地区水稻生长季节内农业气候资源变化[J]. 江苏农业学报, 2020, 36(1): 99-107.
	LI J, JIANG X D, YANG S B, et al. Changes of agricultural climate resources during rice growing season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2020, 36(1): 99-107. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]	高涛涛. 我国早稻主产区生长季农业气候资源变化及其对气候产量的影响[D]. 西安: 陕西师范大学, 2019.
	GAO T T. Changes of agro-climatic resources in the growing season of main early rice producing areas in China and its influence on climatic yield[D]. Xi’an: Shaanxi Normal University, 2019. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]	LIU B H, HENDERSON M, ZHANG Y D, et al. Spatiotemporal change in China’s climatic growing season: 1955-2000[J]. Climatic Change, 2010, 99(1): 93-118.
[8]	SONG Y L, LINDERHOLM H W, CHEN D L, et al. Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951-2007[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2010, 30(1): 33-43.
[9]	董满宇, 李洁敏, 王磊鑫, 等. 1960—2017年华北地区气候生长季变化特征及成因分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(12): 1990-2000.
	DONG M Y, LI J M, WANG L X, et al. Climatic characteristics of climatic growing season and impact factors in North China during 1960-2017[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(12): 1990-2000. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]	吴蓓蕾, 姜大膀, 王晓欣. 1961—2018年中国生长季变化[J]. 大气科学, 2021, 45(2): 424-434.
	WU B L, JIANG D B, WANG X X. Changes in the growing season across China during 1961-2018[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 45(2): 424-434. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]	杨晓光, 李勇, 代姝玮, 等. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅸ:中国农业气候资源时空变化特征[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(12): 3177-3188.
	YANG X G, LI Y, DAI S W, et al. Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change Ⅸ: spatiotemporal change characteristics of China agricultural climate resources[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2011, 22(12): 3177-3188. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[12]	张雷, 刘江. 近50年东北地区气候生长期的变化[J]. 黑龙江农业科学, 2011(9): 17-19.
	ZHANG L, LIU J. Change of growing season in Northeast China nearly 50 years[J]. Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2011(9): 17-19. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]	张立波, 魏丽华, 沈国强. 1961—2010年气候变暖对中国气候生长期的影响分析[J]. 科技通报, 2013, 29(3): 23-28.
	ZHANG L B, WEI L H, SHEN G Q. The impact of climate warming on growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China[J]. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2013, 29(3): 23-28. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]	张旺雄, 张明军, 刘普幸, 等. 喜凉作物生长期对全球变暖停滞响应的时空差异: 以中国绿洲为例[J]. 中国环境科学, 2020, 40(5): 2254-2261.
	ZHANG W X, ZHANG M J, LIU P X, et al. Spatiotemporal responses of the growth period of chimonophilous crop to global warming hiatus: take the example of Chinese oases[J]. China Environmental Science, 2020, 40(5): 2254-2261. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[15]	CUI L L, SHI J, MA Y. Temporal and spatial variations of the thermal growing season in China during 1961-2015[J]. Meteorological Applications, 2018, 25(1): 56-65.
[16]	FRICH P, ALEXANDER L V, DELLA-MARTA P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century[J]. Climate Research, 2002, 19: 193-212.
[17]	徐铭志, 任国玉. 近40年中国气候生长期的变化[J]. 应用气象学报, 2004, 15(3): 306-312.
	XU M Z, REN G Y. Change in growing season over China: 1961-2000[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2004, 15(3): 306-312. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[18]	DAI S W, SHULSKI M D, HUBBARD K G, et al. A spatiotemporal analysis of Midwest US temperature and precipitation trends during the growing season from 1980 to 2013[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 36(1): 517-525.
[19]	ECK M A, MURRAY A R, WARD A R, et al. Influence of growing season temperature and precipitation anomalies on crop yield in the southeastern United States[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2020, 291: 108053.
[20]	LIU B, ASSENG S, MÜLLER C, et al. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6: 1130-1136.
[21]	LOBELL D B, SCHLENKER W, COSTA-ROBERTS J. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J]. Science, 2011, 333(6042): 616-620.
[22]	TAO F, ZHANG Z, ZHANG S, et al. Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China[J]. Climate Research, 2012, 54(3): 233-247.
[23]	ZHANG Z, SONG X, TAO F L, et al. Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980 to 2008[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 123(1): 291-302.
[24]	姜萍, 潘新民, 曾雪莹. 中国不同农业区气温和降水时空演变格局分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2020, 27(4): 270-278.
	JIANG P, PAN X M, ZENG X Y. Tempora land spatial variation of temperature and precipitation in each agricultural sub-region of china[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020, 27(4): 270-278. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]	胡立勇, 丁艳锋. 作物栽培学[M]. 2版. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2019.
[26]	FENG S, FU Q. Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2013, 13(19): 10081-10094.
[27]	HULME M, MARSH R, JONES P D. Global changes in a humidity index between 1931-60 and 1961-90[J]. Climate Research, 1992, 2: 1-22.
[28]	GAO Y H, LI X, RUBY LEUNG L, et al. Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2015, 10(3): 034013.
[29]	胡琦, 董蓓, 潘学标, 等. 1961—2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2017, 33(6): 124-132.
	HU Q, DONG B, PAN X B, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate over period of 1961-2014 in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2017, 33(6): 124-132. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[30]	刘燕, 刘友存, 边晓辉, 等. 江南丘陵地区湿润指数变化特征及敏感性分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2019, 26(2): 263-271.
	LIU Y, LIU Y C, BIAN X H, et al. Variation characteristics and sensitivity analysis of wetness index in Jiangnan hilly areas[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2019, 26(2): 263-271. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[31]	申双和, 张方敏, 盛琼. 1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2009, 25(1): 11-15.
	SHEN S H, ZHANG F M, SHENG Q. Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2009, 25(1): 11-15. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[32]	田瀚文, 焦亮, 张义, 等. 基于湿润指数的甘肃省1967—2016年地表湿润特征[J]. 地球环境学报, 2020, 11(5): 497-508.
	TIAN H W, JIAO L, ZHANG Y, et al. Surface humidity index in Gansu Province during 1967 to 2016 based on humidity index[J]. Journal of Earth Environment, 2020, 11(5): 497-508. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[33]	周丽, 聂常乐, 任钇潼, 等. 四川省气候干湿变化的特征及其影响因子[J]. 贵州农业科学, 2020, 48(1): 146-150.
	ZHOU L, NIE C L, REN Y T, et al. Characteristics and influencing factors of dry and wet climatic changes in Sichuan Province[J]. Guizhou Agricultural Sciences, 2020, 48(1): 146-150. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[34]	ALLEN R G, PEREIRA L S, RAES D, et al. Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop requirements[EB/OL]. [2023-11-07]. https://www.fao.org/3/X0490E/x0490e00.htm.
[35]	YIN Y H, WU S H, ZHENG D, et al. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2008, 95(1): 77-84.
[36]	SEN P K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1968, 63(324): 1379-1389.
[37]	KENDALL M G. Rank correlation methods[M]. 4th ed. London: Griffin, 1975.
[38]	MANN H B. Nonparametric tests against trend[J]. Econometrica, 1945, 13(3): 245.
[39]	常兆丰, 韩福贵, 仲生年. 民勤荒漠区16种植物物候持续日数及其积温变化[J]. 生态学杂志, 2010, 29(2): 193-200.
	CHANG Z F, HAN F G, ZHONG S N. Changes in duration days and accumulated temperature of 16 plant species phenology in Minqin Desert Area[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2010, 29(2): 193-200. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[40]	敖芹, 谷晓平, 姚熠, 等. 不同播栽期的温度对水稻‘宜香优1108’生长及产量的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016, 32(36): 11-15.
	AO Q, GU X P, YAO Y, et al. ‘Yixiangyou1108’: growth and yield under temperatures of different sowing dates[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2016, 32(36): 11-15. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[41]	景德道, 周为华, 钱华飞, 等. 晚收迟播对稻麦周年产量及经济效益的影响[J]. 麦类作物学报, 2014, 34(11): 1566-1571.
	JING D D, ZHOU W H, QIAN H F, et al. Analysis on the effects of late harvest and planting on year-round yield and economic benefits of rice and wheat[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2014, 34(11): 1566-1571. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[42]	孙建军, 张洪程, 尹海庆, 等. 不同生态区播期对机插水稻产量、生育期及温光利用的影响[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(6): 113-121.
	SUN J J, ZHANG H C, YIN H Q, et al. Effects of seeding date on yield, growth period and utilization of temperature and sunshine of mechanical transplanting rice in different ecological regions[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2015, 31(6): 113-121. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[43]	NOURI M, HOMAEE M, BANNAYAN M. Quantitative trend, sensitivity and contribution analyses of reference evapotranspiration in some arid environments under climate change[J]. Water Resources Management, 2017, 31(7): 2207-2224.
[44]	PAN N, WANG S, LIU Y X, et al. Rapid increase of potential evapotranspiration weakens the effect of precipitation on aridity in global drylands[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2021, 186: 104414.
[45]	PARK C E, JEONG S J, HO C H, et al. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2017, 17(17): 10467-10476.
[46]	SUN S L, CHEN H S, WANG G J, et al. Shift in potential evapotranspiration and its implications for dryness/wetness over Southwest China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, 121(16): 9342-9355.
[47]	苑全治, 吴绍洪, 戴尔阜, 等. 1961—2015年中国气候干湿状况的时空分异[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2017, 47(11): 1339-1348.
	YUAN Q Z, WU S H, DAI E F, et al. Spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry conditions from 1961 to 2015 in China[J]. Scientia Sinica(Terrae), 2017, 47(11): 1339-1348. (in Chinese with English abstract)

1960—2019年中国水稻气候生长期水热资源变化趋势及其归因分析

Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 5

参考文献 47

相关文章 1

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价