Will aging make farmers flow agricultural land smoothly?

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.07.23

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 1545-1557.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.07.23

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles

Will aging make farmers flow agricultural land smoothly?

CHENG Weisong¹(), ZHENG Suwen¹, GAO Huajie¹, BAI Yunli², YE Chunhui¹^,^*()

1. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2021-09-06 Online:2022-07-25 Published:2022-07-26
Contact: YE Chunhui

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the phenomenon of outflow of agricultural land by old farmers, the data cited from the China Rural Development Survey were used in the present study.Based on theoretical derivation, panel fixed effects regression and propensity score matching methods were employed to analyze the impact of the aging of agricultural labor force on the circulation of agricultural land. It was shown that the estimated coefficients increased after the sample missing problem was alleviated. For farming households with full pensions and a smaller household agricultural income per labor (below the average level in village) or lower percentage of household agricultural income (<0.25), the outflow of agricultural land under the influence of aging was greater. When villagers were covered by the new rural cooperative medical insurance or a nursing home in the village, the outflow of agricultural land from old farmers tended to increase. When the villages provided public goods that could improve agricultural efficiency, such as irrigation facilities or mechanized farmland services, there would be a further outflow of agricultural land from farming households with a smaller household agricultural income per labor or lower percentage of household agricultural income. Accordingly, countermeasures were proposed to increase social security for old farmers in rural areas and to actively invest in public goods that could improve agricultural productivity.

Key words: labor force aging, land circulation, public goods

CLC Number:

S-9
F321.1

CHENG Weisong, ZHENG Suwen, GAO Huajie, BAI Yunli, YE Chunhui. Will aging make farmers flow agricultural land smoothly?[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2022, 34(7): 1545-1557.

Figures/Tables 6

References 38

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变量 Variable	符号 Symbol	含义或单位 Definition and unit	样本数 Sample size	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
流入面积Inflow area	Y₁	hm²	8 259	0.10	8.3
流出面积Outflow area	Y₂	hm²	8 259	0.06	3.90
净流出面积Net outflow area	Y₃	hm²	8 259	-0.05	9.75
老龄化60 Aging 60	X₁	60岁及以上的农业劳动力占家庭农业劳动力的比重 Proportion of agricultural labor aged 60 and over in household agricultural labor/%	8 841	29.99	36.69
家庭农业劳动者平均年龄 Average age of family agricultural labor	X₂	—	8 841	52.29	6.59
家庭中是否有大于等于60岁的农业劳动者 Are there any agricultural labor in the family who are 60 years old or older?	X₃	1,是;0,否 1, Yes;0, No	8 841	0.52	0.50
户主年龄Age of household head	X₄	—	8 238	55.60	10.98
家庭农业劳动者的平均受教育年限 Average years of education of family agricultural labor	X₅	a	8 841	6.49	1.72
家庭内老年人的平均健康状况 Average health status of the elderly in family	X₆	1~5,最好~最差 1-5, from the best to the worst	8 841	2.27	0.69
家庭承包地总面积 Total area of household contracted land	X₇	hm²	8 841	0.33	0.81
家庭非农收入Family non-agricultural income	X₈	10⁴ yuan	8 260	3.35	9.98
家庭外出打工劳动力比重 Proportion of labor force working outside hometown	X₉	%	8 841	0.24	0.23
家庭拖拉机资产Family tractor assets	X₁₀	10⁴ yuan	8 841	0.10	0.48
家庭养老金当年收入 Annual family pension income	X₁₁	10⁴ yuan	8 841	0.09	0.37
农地租金Farmland rent	X₁₂	yuan·hm^-2	8 259	843.75	322.63
农地补贴Farmland subsidy	X₁₃	yuan·hm^-2	8 171	1 823.85	4 203.62
家庭劳动力数量Number of household labor	X₁₄	人数Number of people	8 259	5.33	2.22
家庭是否参加新型农村合作医疗保险 Whether family participates in New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance	Z₁	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	3 978	0.96	0.20
村内是否拥有养老院 Whether village has a nursing home	Z₂	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	7 689	0.28	0.45
村庄当年是否投资灌溉设施 Whether village invests in irrigation facilities in the year	Z₃	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	8 841	0.44	0.50
村庄是否提供机械化耕地服务 Whether village provides mechanized farmland services	Z₄	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	8 841	0.20	0.40

变量 Variable	符号 Symbol	含义或单位 Definition and unit	样本数 Sample size	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
流入面积Inflow area	Y₁	hm²	8 259	0.10	8.3
流出面积Outflow area	Y₂	hm²	8 259	0.06	3.90
净流出面积Net outflow area	Y₃	hm²	8 259	-0.05	9.75
老龄化60 Aging 60	X₁	60岁及以上的农业劳动力占家庭农业劳动力的比重 Proportion of agricultural labor aged 60 and over in household agricultural labor/%	8 841	29.99	36.69
家庭农业劳动者平均年龄 Average age of family agricultural labor	X₂	—	8 841	52.29	6.59
家庭中是否有大于等于60岁的农业劳动者 Are there any agricultural labor in the family who are 60 years old or older?	X₃	1,是;0,否 1, Yes;0, No	8 841	0.52	0.50
户主年龄Age of household head	X₄	—	8 238	55.60	10.98
家庭农业劳动者的平均受教育年限 Average years of education of family agricultural labor	X₅	a	8 841	6.49	1.72
家庭内老年人的平均健康状况 Average health status of the elderly in family	X₆	1~5,最好~最差 1-5, from the best to the worst	8 841	2.27	0.69
家庭承包地总面积 Total area of household contracted land	X₇	hm²	8 841	0.33	0.81
家庭非农收入Family non-agricultural income	X₈	10⁴ yuan	8 260	3.35	9.98
家庭外出打工劳动力比重 Proportion of labor force working outside hometown	X₉	%	8 841	0.24	0.23
家庭拖拉机资产Family tractor assets	X₁₀	10⁴ yuan	8 841	0.10	0.48
家庭养老金当年收入 Annual family pension income	X₁₁	10⁴ yuan	8 841	0.09	0.37
农地租金Farmland rent	X₁₂	yuan·hm^-2	8 259	843.75	322.63
农地补贴Farmland subsidy	X₁₃	yuan·hm^-2	8 171	1 823.85	4 203.62
家庭劳动力数量Number of household labor	X₁₄	人数Number of people	8 259	5.33	2.22
家庭是否参加新型农村合作医疗保险 Whether family participates in New Rural Cooperative Medical Insurance	Z₁	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	3 978	0.96	0.20
村内是否拥有养老院 Whether village has a nursing home	Z₂	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	7 689	0.28	0.45
村庄当年是否投资灌溉设施 Whether village invests in irrigation facilities in the year	Z₃	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	8 841	0.44	0.50
村庄是否提供机械化耕地服务 Whether village provides mechanized farmland services	Z₄	1,是;0,否 1, Yes; 0, No	8 841	0.20	0.40

变量 Variable	模型1 Model 1	模型2 Model 2	模型3 Model 3	模型4 Model 4
X₁	0.013^***	0.014^***	0.015^***	0.015^***
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
X₄	0.038^**	0.029^*	0.035^**	0.037^**
	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.017)	(0.017)
X₅	-0.028	-0.026	-0.030	-0.018
	(0.076)	(0.068)	(0.081)	(0.076)
X₆	-0.030	-0.033	-0.049	-0.018
	(0.123)	(0.126)	(0.126)	(0.120)
X₇	0.033	0.043	0.046	0.051
	(0.044)	(0.033)	(0.035)	(0.032)
X₈	0.053	0.039	0.043	0.041
	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)
X₉	1.522^***	1.375**	1.695^***	1.668^***
	(0.549)	(0.534)	(0.566)	(0.556)
X₁₀	-2.439^**	-2.315^**	-2.576^**	-2.541^**
	(1.130)	(1.112)	(1.192)	(1.159)
X₁₁	-0.317^*	-0.352^*	-0.361^**	-0.340^**
	(0.166)	(0.181)	(0.182)	(0.166)
X₁₂	0.001^*	<0.001	0.001^*	0.001^*
	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)
X₁₃	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)
常数项	-3.779^***	3.857^***	-5.834^***	-4.032^***
Constant	(1.349)	(1.155)	(1.337)	(1.352)
样本量Sample size	8 148	7 934	7 952	8 130
R²	0.112	0.120	0.109	0.109

变量 Variable	模型1 Model 1	模型2 Model 2	模型3 Model 3	模型4 Model 4
X₁	0.013^***	0.014^***	0.015^***	0.015^***
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.004)
X₄	0.038^**	0.029^*	0.035^**	0.037^**
	(0.017)	(0.015)	(0.017)	(0.017)
X₅	-0.028	-0.026	-0.030	-0.018
	(0.076)	(0.068)	(0.081)	(0.076)
X₆	-0.030	-0.033	-0.049	-0.018
	(0.123)	(0.126)	(0.126)	(0.120)
X₇	0.033	0.043	0.046	0.051
	(0.044)	(0.033)	(0.035)	(0.032)
X₈	0.053	0.039	0.043	0.041
	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)
X₉	1.522^***	1.375**	1.695^***	1.668^***
	(0.549)	(0.534)	(0.566)	(0.556)
X₁₀	-2.439^**	-2.315^**	-2.576^**	-2.541^**
	(1.130)	(1.112)	(1.192)	(1.159)
X₁₁	-0.317^*	-0.352^*	-0.361^**	-0.340^**
	(0.166)	(0.181)	(0.182)	(0.166)
X₁₂	0.001^*	<0.001	0.001^*	0.001^*
	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)
X₁₃	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001
	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)	(<0.001)
常数项	-3.779^***	3.857^***	-5.834^***	-4.032^***
Constant	(1.349)	(1.155)	(1.337)	(1.352)
样本量Sample size	8 148	7 934	7 952	8 130
R²	0.112	0.120	0.109	0.109

变量 Variable	无养老金 No pension	不足额养老金 Insufficient pension	足额养老金 Sufficient pension	全样本 Full sample
X₁	0.009^*	0.012	0.020^***	0.015^***
	(0.005)	(0.009)	(0.005)	(0.003)
样本量Sample size	3 192	1 595	4 884	8 130
R²	0.207	0.195	0.299	0.208

Will aging make farmers flow agricultural land smoothly?

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变量 Variable	家庭农业收入占比≥0.25 Percentage of household agricultural income≥0.25	家庭农业收入占比<0.25 Percentage of household agricultural income<0.25	家庭劳均农业收入≥ 村平均水平 Household agricultural income per abor≥average level in village	家庭劳均农业收入< 村平均水平 Household agricultural income per labor< average level in village	全样本 Full sample
X₁	0.003^*	0.007^***	0.006^*	0.006^***	0.006^***
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.001)
样本量Sample size	1 113	1 056	544	1 011	2 215
R²	0.031	0.019	0.057	0.019	0.020

变量 Variable	无养老金 Without pension	有养老金 With pension	无养老金 Without pension	有养老金 With pension
X₁×Z₁	0.071^*	0.074^**	—	—
	(0.042)	(0.029)
Z₁	-5.507^*	-5.189^**	—	—
	(2.958)	(2.478)
X₁×Z₂	—	—	0.046^**	-0.002
			(0.019)	(0.010)
Z₂	—	—	8.095	-2.302
			(6.075)	(1.520)
X₁	-0.074^*	-0.038^*	0.005	0.001
	(0.040)	(0.023)	(0.005)	(0.005)
样本量Sample size	2 395	939	4 469	3 125
R²	0.297	0.458	0.185	0.206

变量 Variable	家庭农业收入占比≥0.25 Percentage of household agricultural income ≥0.25	家庭农业收入占比<0.25 Percentage of household agricultural income <0.25	家庭劳均农业收入 ≥村平均水平 Household agricultural income per labor≥average level in village	家庭劳均农业收入 <村平均水平 Household agricultural income per labor<average level in village
X₁× Z₃	—	—	-0.009	0.014^**
			(0.006)	(0.007)
Z₃	—	—	-0.008	0.246
			(0.089)	(0.271)
X₁× Z₄	-0.002	0.012^**	—	—
	(0.003)	(0.006)
Z₄	-0.083	-0.270^*	—	—
	(0.083)	(0.139)
X₁	0.004^**	0.006^*	0.009^*	0.002
	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.002)
样本量Sample size	1 100	1 045	544	1 002
R²	0.030	0.022	0.064	0.038

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