Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural supply quality in China in 2003-2019

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.09.23

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 2043-2054.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.09.23

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles

Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural supply quality in China in 2003-2019

YIN Xiyang(), CHEN Yixuan, LI Dongmei(), YU Xi

College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China

Received:2021-10-05 Online:2022-09-25 Published:2022-09-30
Contact: LI Dongmei

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the understanding of the connotation of agricultural supply quality, the evaluation index system of agricultural supply quality was constructed from five dimensions of factor, efficiency, structure, “green” and benefit. By using the agricultural development data of China (excluding of Hongkong, Macao, Taiwan) from 2003 to 2019, the agricultural supply quality in China was analyzed via the global entropy method and Moran’s I index. It was shown that there was an obvious upward trend of China’s agricultural supply quality. The quality of supply factor, supply efficiency and supply efficiency were the main driving forces of China’s agricultural supply quality in recent years, while the quality of supply structure and supply “green” were the short board. The agricultural supply quality in all regions of China exhibited an upward trend, with obvious regional differences as “high in the east and low in the west”, and the differences between the east and the west were expanding. China’s agricultural supply quality had significant spatial correlation, and some regions had strong spatial dependence and spatial stability. Therefore, it was suggested to change the agricultural development mode, adjust the agricultural structure, formulate differentiated agricultural supply objectives, strengthen regional agricultural exchanges and cooperation, to promote the further improvement of China’s agricultural supply quality.

Key words: agricultural supply quality, evaluation index system, global entropy method, Moran’s I index

CLC Number:

S-9
F327

YIN Xiyang, CHEN Yixuan, LI Dongmei, YU Xi. Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural supply quality in China in 2003-2019[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2022, 34(9): 2043-2054.

Figures/Tables 6

References 32

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维度层 Dimension	要素层 Element	指标层 Index	度量方法 Measurement	属性 Attribute
A₁:供给要素质量 Quality of supply factor	B₁:要素供给数量 Factor supply quantity	C₁:单位面积农机总动力 Total power of agricultural machinery per unit area	农业机械总动力/耕地面积 Total power of agricultural machinery/cultivated land area	+
		C₂:人均耕地面积 Per capita cultivated land area	耕地面积/乡村人口数 Cultivated land area/rural population	+
		C₃:单位面积财政支农支出 Financial expenditure for agriculture per unit area	财政支农支出/耕地面积 Financial expenditure for agriculture/cultivated land area	+
		C₄:单位面积农业用水量 Agricultural water consumption per unit area	农业用水量/耕地面积 Agricultural water consumption/cultivated land area	+
		C₅:单位面积农业劳动力数量 Number of agricultural labor force per unit area	第一产业从业人员数/耕地面积 Number of employees in the primary industry/cultivated land area	+
	B₂:要素供给质量 Factor supply quality	C₆:科研投入强度 Scientific research investment intensity	科技支出/财政总支出 Science and technology expenditure/total financial expenditure	+
		C₇:劳动者受教育程度 Education level of labor force	高中及以上学历劳动力占比 Proportion of labor force with high school and above degree	+
A₂:供给效率质量 Quality of supply efficiency	B₃:要素产出效率 Factor output efficiency	C₈:劳动生产率 Labor productivity	农林牧渔总产值/第一产业从业人员数 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/number of employees in the primary industry	+
		C₉:土地生产率 Land productivity	农林牧渔总产值/耕地面积 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/cultivated land area	+
		C₁₀:农机生产率 Agricultural machinery productivity	农林牧渔总产值/农业机械总动力 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/total power of agricultural machinery	+
	B₄:要素利用效率 Factor utilization efficiency	C₁₁:复种指数 Multiple crop index	农作物播种面积/耕地面积 Crop sown area/cultivated land area	+
		C₁₂:有效灌溉指数 Effective irrigation index	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积 Effective irrigation area/cultivated land area	+
A₃:供给结构质量 Quality of supply structure	B₅:内部结构协调水平 Internal structure	C₁₃:产业结构调整指数 Industrial structure adjustment index	1-农业产值/农林牧渔总产值 1-agricultural output/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	coordination level	C₁₄:种植结构多元化指数 Planting structure diversity index	1-粮食播种面积/农作物播种面积 1-grain sown area/crop sown area	+
	B₆:外部结构协调水平 External structure coordination level	C₁₅:产业融合指数 Industrial integration index	农林牧渔服务业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值 Output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
		C₁₆:乡村非农就业占比 Proportion of rural non-agricultural employment	1-第一产业从业人员数/乡村劳动力数量 1-number of employees in the primary industry/number of rural labor force	+
A₄:供给绿色质量 Quality of supply “green”	B₇:资源减量水平 Resource reduction level	C₁₇:农药使用强度 Pesticide utilization intensity	农药使用量/耕地面积 Pesticide usage/cultivated land area	-
		C₁₈:化肥使用强度 Chemical fertilizer utilization intensity	化肥施用量/耕地面积 Fertilizer usage/cultivated land area	-
		C₁₉:农膜使用强度 Agro-film utilization intensity	农膜使用量/耕地面积 Agro-film usage/cultivated land area	-
	B₈:资源利用水平 Resource utilization level	C₂₀:万元农业GDP电耗 Electricity consumption per 10 000 yuan agricultural GDP	农村用电量/农林牧渔总产值 Rural electricity consumption/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	-
		C₂₁:万元农业GDP水耗 Water consumption per 10 000 yuan agricultural GDP	农业用水量/农林牧渔总产值 Agricultural water consumption/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	-
A₅:供给效益质量 Quality of supply benefit	B₉:经济效益 Economic benefit	C₂₂:农林牧渔总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	农林牧渔总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
		C₂₃:人均粮食产量 Grain output per capita	粮食产量/乡村人口数 Grain output/rural population	+
		C₂₄:人均肉蛋奶鱼产量 Meat, egg, milk and fish output per capita	肉蛋奶鱼产量/乡村人口数 Meat, egg, milk and fish output/rural population	+
	B₁₀:社会效益 Social benefit	C₂₅:农村居民恩格尔系数 Engel coefficient of rural residents	农村居民食物支出/消费总支出 Food expenditure/total consumption expenditure of rural residents	-
		C₂₆:农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	+
	B₁₁:生态效益 Ecological benefit	C₂₇:森林覆盖率 Forest coverage	森林面积/土地总面积 Forest area/total land area	+
		C₂₈:造林总面积 Total afforestation area	造林总面积 Total afforestation area	+

维度层 Dimension	要素层 Element	指标层 Index	度量方法 Measurement	属性 Attribute
A₁:供给要素质量 Quality of supply factor	B₁:要素供给数量 Factor supply quantity	C₁:单位面积农机总动力 Total power of agricultural machinery per unit area	农业机械总动力/耕地面积 Total power of agricultural machinery/cultivated land area	+
		C₂:人均耕地面积 Per capita cultivated land area	耕地面积/乡村人口数 Cultivated land area/rural population	+
		C₃:单位面积财政支农支出 Financial expenditure for agriculture per unit area	财政支农支出/耕地面积 Financial expenditure for agriculture/cultivated land area	+
		C₄:单位面积农业用水量 Agricultural water consumption per unit area	农业用水量/耕地面积 Agricultural water consumption/cultivated land area	+
		C₅:单位面积农业劳动力数量 Number of agricultural labor force per unit area	第一产业从业人员数/耕地面积 Number of employees in the primary industry/cultivated land area	+
	B₂:要素供给质量 Factor supply quality	C₆:科研投入强度 Scientific research investment intensity	科技支出/财政总支出 Science and technology expenditure/total financial expenditure	+
		C₇:劳动者受教育程度 Education level of labor force	高中及以上学历劳动力占比 Proportion of labor force with high school and above degree	+
A₂:供给效率质量 Quality of supply efficiency	B₃:要素产出效率 Factor output efficiency	C₈:劳动生产率 Labor productivity	农林牧渔总产值/第一产业从业人员数 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/number of employees in the primary industry	+
		C₉:土地生产率 Land productivity	农林牧渔总产值/耕地面积 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/cultivated land area	+
		C₁₀:农机生产率 Agricultural machinery productivity	农林牧渔总产值/农业机械总动力 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/total power of agricultural machinery	+
	B₄:要素利用效率 Factor utilization efficiency	C₁₁:复种指数 Multiple crop index	农作物播种面积/耕地面积 Crop sown area/cultivated land area	+
		C₁₂:有效灌溉指数 Effective irrigation index	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积 Effective irrigation area/cultivated land area	+
A₃:供给结构质量 Quality of supply structure	B₅:内部结构协调水平 Internal structure	C₁₃:产业结构调整指数 Industrial structure adjustment index	1-农业产值/农林牧渔总产值 1-agricultural output/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	coordination level	C₁₄:种植结构多元化指数 Planting structure diversity index	1-粮食播种面积/农作物播种面积 1-grain sown area/crop sown area	+
	B₆:外部结构协调水平 External structure coordination level	C₁₅:产业融合指数 Industrial integration index	农林牧渔服务业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值 Output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
		C₁₆:乡村非农就业占比 Proportion of rural non-agricultural employment	1-第一产业从业人员数/乡村劳动力数量 1-number of employees in the primary industry/number of rural labor force	+
A₄:供给绿色质量 Quality of supply “green”	B₇:资源减量水平 Resource reduction level	C₁₇:农药使用强度 Pesticide utilization intensity	农药使用量/耕地面积 Pesticide usage/cultivated land area	-
		C₁₈:化肥使用强度 Chemical fertilizer utilization intensity	化肥施用量/耕地面积 Fertilizer usage/cultivated land area	-
		C₁₉:农膜使用强度 Agro-film utilization intensity	农膜使用量/耕地面积 Agro-film usage/cultivated land area	-
	B₈:资源利用水平 Resource utilization level	C₂₀:万元农业GDP电耗 Electricity consumption per 10 000 yuan agricultural GDP	农村用电量/农林牧渔总产值 Rural electricity consumption/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	-
		C₂₁:万元农业GDP水耗 Water consumption per 10 000 yuan agricultural GDP	农业用水量/农林牧渔总产值 Agricultural water consumption/total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	-
A₅:供给效益质量 Quality of supply benefit	B₉:经济效益 Economic benefit	C₂₂:农林牧渔总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	农林牧渔总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
		C₂₃:人均粮食产量 Grain output per capita	粮食产量/乡村人口数 Grain output/rural population	+
		C₂₄:人均肉蛋奶鱼产量 Meat, egg, milk and fish output per capita	肉蛋奶鱼产量/乡村人口数 Meat, egg, milk and fish output/rural population	+
	B₁₀:社会效益 Social benefit	C₂₅:农村居民恩格尔系数 Engel coefficient of rural residents	农村居民食物支出/消费总支出 Food expenditure/total consumption expenditure of rural residents	-
		C₂₆:农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	+
	B₁₁:生态效益 Ecological benefit	C₂₇:森林覆盖率 Forest coverage	森林面积/土地总面积 Forest area/total land area	+
		C₂₈:造林总面积 Total afforestation area	造林总面积 Total afforestation area	+

维度层 Dimension	要素层 Element	指标层 Index	权重 Weight	排名 Ranking
A₁(0.430 4)	B₁(0.367 0)	C₁	0.032 2	14
		C₂	0.062 2	3
		C₃	0.193 1	1
		C₄	0.054 2	5
		C₅	0.025 3	17
	B₂(0.063 4)	C₆	0.045 4	9
		C₇	0.018 0	18
A₂(0.169 7)	B₃(0.125 9)	C₈	0.044 6	10
		C₉	0.045 5	8
		C₁₀	0.035 8	12
	B₄(0.043 8)	C₁₁	0.016 0	19
		C₁₂	0.027 8	16
A₃(0.070 1)	B₅(0.028 5)	C₁₃	0.013 6	21
		C₁₄	0.014 9	20
	B₆(0.041 6)	C₁₅	0.034 6	13
		C₁₆	0.007 0	22
A₄(0.016 4)	B₇(0.012 4)	C₁₇	0.005 4	24
		C₁₈	0.002 9	26
		C₁₉	0.004 1	25
	B₈(0.004 0)	C₂₀	0.001 4	28
		C₂₁	0.002 6	27
A₅(0.313 4)	B₉(0.142 7)	C₂₂	0.040 4	11
		C₂₃	0.055 7	4
		C₂₄	0.046 6	7
	B₁₀(0.056 9)	C₂₅	0.006 6	23
		C₂₆	0.050 3	6
	B₁₁(0.113 8)	C₂₇	0.032 0	15
		C₂₈	0.081 8	2

维度层 Dimension	要素层 Element	指标层 Index	权重 Weight	排名 Ranking
A₁(0.430 4)	B₁(0.367 0)	C₁	0.032 2	14
		C₂	0.062 2	3
		C₃	0.193 1	1
		C₄	0.054 2	5
		C₅	0.025 3	17
	B₂(0.063 4)	C₆	0.045 4	9
		C₇	0.018 0	18
A₂(0.169 7)	B₃(0.125 9)	C₈	0.044 6	10
		C₉	0.045 5	8
		C₁₀	0.035 8	12
	B₄(0.043 8)	C₁₁	0.016 0	19
		C₁₂	0.027 8	16
A₃(0.070 1)	B₅(0.028 5)	C₁₃	0.013 6	21
		C₁₄	0.014 9	20
	B₆(0.041 6)	C₁₅	0.034 6	13
		C₁₆	0.007 0	22
A₄(0.016 4)	B₇(0.012 4)	C₁₇	0.005 4	24
		C₁₈	0.002 9	26
		C₁₉	0.004 1	25
	B₈(0.004 0)	C₂₀	0.001 4	28
		C₂₁	0.002 6	27
A₅(0.313 4)	B₉(0.142 7)	C₂₂	0.040 4	11
		C₂₃	0.055 7	4
		C₂₄	0.046 6	7
	B₁₀(0.056 9)	C₂₅	0.006 6	23
		C₂₆	0.050 3	6
	B₁₁(0.113 8)	C₂₇	0.032 0	15
		C₂₈	0.081 8	2

年份 Year	供给要素质量 Quality of supply factor		供给效率质量 Quality of supply efficiency		供给结构质量 Quality of supply structure		供给绿色质量 Quality of supply “green”		供给效益质量 Quality of supply benefit		综合得分 Comprehensive score
年份 Year	得分 Score	贡献率 Contribution rate	得分 Score	贡献率 Contribution rate	得分 Score	贡献率 Contribution rate	得分 Score	贡献率 Contribution rate	得分 Score	贡献率 Contribution rate	综合得分 Comprehensive score
2003	0.047 8	0.308 8	0.024 9	0.160 9	0.027 8	0.179 6	0.013 9	0.089 8	0.040 4	0.261 0	0.154 8
2004	0.049 0	0.317 6	0.027 2	0.176 3	0.026 7	0.173 0	0.013 9	0.090 1	0.037 5	0.243 0	0.154 3
2005	0.049 6	0.318 8	0.028 1	0.180 6	0.026 8	0.172 2	0.013 8	0.088 7	0.037 3	0.239 7	0.155 6
2006	0.052 5	0.319 5	0.029 9	0.182 0	0.024 9	0.151 6	0.013 8	0.084 0	0.043 2	0.262 9	0.164 3
2007	0.062 6	0.338 4	0.035 2	0.190 3	0.027 8	0.150 3	0.013 5	0.073 0	0.045 9	0.248 1	0.185 0
2008	0.064 5	0.325 6	0.041 4	0.209 0	0.026 8	0.135 3	0.013 4	0.067 6	0.052 0	0.262 5	0.198 1
2009	0.066 0	0.321 0	0.040 9	0.198 9	0.028 2	0.137 2	0.013 3	0.064 7	0.057 2	0.278 2	0.205 6
2010	0.074 2	0.309 9	0.049 5	0.206 8	0.025 7	0.107 4	0.013 3	0.055 6	0.076 7	0.320 4	0.239 4
2011	0.072 0	0.315 4	0.050 1	0.219 4	0.027 2	0.119 1	0.013 3	0.058 3	0.065 7	0.287 8	0.228 3
2012	0.074 8	0.313 4	0.054 0	0.226 2	0.026 9	0.112 7	0.013 3	0.055 7	0.069 7	0.292 0	0.238 7
2013	0.077 6	0.309 7	0.057 2	0.228 3	0.026 8	0.106 9	0.013 2	0.052 7	0.075 8	0.302 5	0.250 6
2014	0.079 2	0.308 5	0.057 8	0.225 2	0.027 1	0.105 6	0.013 4	0.052 2	0.079 2	0.308 5	0.256 7
2015	0.082 2	0.306 1	0.060 1	0.223 8	0.027 5	0.102 4	0.013 4	0.049 9	0.085 3	0.317 7	0.268 5
2016	0.082 2	0.298 6	0.063 4	0.230 3	0.027 9	0.101 3	0.013 5	0.049 0	0.088 3	0.320 7	0.275 3
2017	0.084 6	0.300 5	0.062 1	0.220 6	0.029 7	0.105 5	0.013 6	0.048 3	0.091 5	0.325 0	0.281 5
2018	0.086 7	0.297 0	0.065 3	0.223 7	0.030 5	0.104 5	0.013 8	0.047 3	0.095 6	0.327 5	0.291 9
2019	0.088 9	0.293 3	0.068 7	0.226 7	0.031 2	0.102 9	0.013 9	0.045 9	0.100 4	0.331 2	0.303 1

Evaluation and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural supply quality in China in 2003-2019

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年份 Year	华北 North China	华东 East China	华中 Central China	华南 South China	西南 Southwest China	西北 Northwest China	东北 Northeast China
2003	0.169 3	0.169 6	0.152 9	0.168 5	0.117 1	0.154 9	0.147 2
2004	0.169 1	0.175 0	0.156 4	0.168 7	0.114 9	0.143 5	0.148 9
2005	0.171 8	0.176 1	0.157 6	0.175 3	0.117 3	0.138 7	0.151 0
2006	0.181 9	0.188 9	0.164 5	0.184 0	0.127 5	0.138 7	0.161 9
2007	0.204 9	0.216 5	0.180 7	0.203 1	0.142 2	0.162 1	0.172 8
2008	0.220 5	0.229 7	0.194 0	0.217 2	0.153 6	0.173 6	0.186 7
2009	0.229 2	0.237 4	0.201 5	0.221 6	0.160 0	0.183 4	0.193 5
2010	0.263 8	0.254 3	0.222 7	0.243 3	0.181 6	0.243 9	0.265 2
2011	0.250 3	0.262 4	0.228 7	0.243 3	0.175 6	0.205 6	0.222 8
2012	0.261 8	0.271 3	0.239 5	0.256 5	0.182 9	0.214 3	0.239 1
2013	0.272 8	0.283 1	0.253 9	0.268 6	0.192 8	0.225 8	0.254 6
2014	0.275 7	0.297 8	0.258 3	0.283 6	0.194 3	0.224 7	0.257 4
2015	0.284 5	0.310 1	0.267 8	0.301 7	0.209 0	0.234 7	0.269 7
2016	0.287 3	0.317 6	0.273 2	0.317 6	0.216 9	0.243 3	0.267 7
2017	0.290 7	0.325 6	0.280 2	0.321 9	0.226 6	0.250 1	0.267 6
2018	0.297 6	0.340 3	0.292 5	0.334 5	0.234 3	0.262 0	0.273 0
2019	0.306 5	0.351 6	0.307 3	0.351 3	0.244 9	0.270 4	0.283 9

年份Year	Moran’s I	Z	P
2003	0.198^**	2.154	0.031
2004	0.275^***	2.870	0.004
2005	0.282^***	2.943	0.003
2006	0.349^***	3.564	0.000
2007	0.262^***	2.796	0.005
2008	0.207^**	2.288	0.022
2009	0.183^**	2.089	0.037
2010	0.141^*	1.668	0.095
2011	0.192^**	2.146	0.032
2012	0.180^**	2.029	0.043
2013	0.185^**	2.066	0.039
2014	0.227^**	2.507	0.012
2015	0.214^**	2.378	0.017
2016	0.207^**	2.330	0.020
2017	0.161^*	1.912	0.056
2018	0.162^*	1.948	0.051
2019	0.164^*	1.930	0.054

年份 Year	H-H	L-H	L-L	H-L
2003	北京Beijing、天津Tianjin、江苏Jiangsu、浙江Zhejiang、上海Shanghai、黑龙江Heilongjiang、河北Hebei、福建Fujian、江西Jiangxi、广东Guangdong	吉林Jilin、辽宁Liaoning、山西Shanxi、安徽Anhui	湖北Hubei、云南Yunnan、四川Sichuan、河南Henan、山东Shandong、广西Guangxi、重庆Chongqing、贵州Guizhou、甘肃Gansu、陕西Shaanxi、青海Qinghai、西藏Tibet	内蒙古Inner Mongolia、湖南Hunan、新疆Xinjiang、宁夏Ningxia
2009	天津Tianjin、江苏Jiangsu、上海Shanghai、黑龙江Heilongjiang、广东Guangdong、福建Fujian、浙江Zhejiang、江西Jiangxi	吉林Jilin、辽宁Liaoning、河北Hebei、山西Shanxi、安徽Anhui	湖北Hubei、河南Henan、云南Yunnan、四川Sichuan、广西Guangxi、重庆Chongqing、贵州Guizhou、宁夏Ningxia、陕西Shaanxi、甘肃Gansu、青海Qinghai、西藏Tibet	北京Beijing、山东Shandong、内蒙古Inner Mongolia、湖南Hunan、新疆Xinjiang
2015	天津Tianjin、辽宁Liaoning、江苏Jiangsu、上海Shanghai、黑龙江Heilongjiang、广东Guangdong、福建Fujian、浙江Zhejiang	河北Hebei、山东Shandong、吉林Jilin、安徽Anhui、江西Jiangxi、广西Guangxi	云南Yunnan、四川Sichuan、重庆Chongqing、河南Henan、贵州Guizhou、山西Shaanxi、陕西Shaanxi、甘肃Gansu、青海Qinghai、宁夏Ningxia、西藏Tibet	北京Beijing、湖北Hubei、湖南Hunan、内蒙古Inner Mongolia、新疆Xinjiang
2019	江苏Jiangsu、上海Shanghai、黑龙江Heilongjiang、广东Guangdong、福建Fujian、湖南Hunan、浙江Zhejiang	天津Tianjin、河北Hebei、山东Shandong、吉林Jilin、江西Jiangxi、广西Guangxi、安徽Anhui	辽宁Liaoning、云南Yunnan、贵州Guizhou、四川Sichuan、重庆Chongqing、河南Henan、山西Shanxi、陕西Shaanxi、甘肃Gansu、青海Qinghai、宁夏Ningxia、西藏Tibet	北京Beijing、湖北Hubei、内蒙古Inner Mongolia、新疆Xinjiang

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