Abstract: Based on the land use/cover data in 2000 and 2010， CLUE\|S model and Markov model were applied together to simulate and predict the land use change in Jiaxing City in 2020 under natural growth scenario， ecological protection scenario and land optimization scenario， respectively. The changes of ecosystem services value under the three scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The results showed that as far as 2020， the descending ranking of ecosystem services value was as follows: ecological protection scenario>land optimization scenario>natural growth scenario. Compared with 2010， the loss of ecosystem service value under natural growth scenario was the highest （136 million yuan）， and it was the lowest under ecological protection scenario （27 million yuan）. Thus， it could greatly improve the ecological services function of Jiaxing City by reducing the transformation rate of cultivated land to construction land and increasing the forest area. Therefore， it is recommended that the government should enforce stringent controls over urban sprawl and increase the forest coverage area.

Key words: CLUE\, S model, Markov model, scenario analysis, ecosystem services value