Determination of optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages based on construction land expansion prediction

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.10.20

›› 2020, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1899-1909.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.10.20

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles

Determination of optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages based on construction land expansion prediction

XIE Qing¹, QU Litong^2,*, YAN Shixiong³

1. Hunan Economic and Social Development Research Center, Party School of the Hunan Provincial Committee of CPC, Changsha 410006, China;
2. Rural Revitalization Research Institute of China, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
3. School of Hydraulic Engineering, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China

Received:2020-05-08 Online:2020-10-25 Published:2020-11-16

Abstract

Abstract: Determination of the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages is conducive to the both sides of land transfer in line with their maximum benefits, and could reduce the transaction cost in transfer process. Based on the theory of rational choice, the framework for the determination of the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages was constructed in the present study. With Changsha as an example, CA-Markov model was used to simulate the expansion of urban construction land. Then, the simulation results were chosen to predict the time of land expropriation, and Wangcheng District of Changsha was selected for empirical analysis. The results showed that the optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages was the corresponding time when the income of both sides of the land transfer reached the maximal revenue before land expropriation. Different transfer times corresponded to different optimal term before land expropriation. Both sides of land transfer could determine the term according to their income expectation, subjective intention, and land expropriation time predicted by the expansion of urban construction land. CA-Markov model exhibited certain advantages in determining the optimal term of land transfer.

Key words: land transfer, optimal term, suburban village, CA-Markov model

CLC Number:

S-9
F301.24

XIE Qing, QU Litong, YAN Shixiong. Determination of optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages based on construction land expansion prediction[J]. , 2020, 32(10): 1899-1909.

References

[1] 钟文晶, 罗必良. 契约期限是怎样确定的?: 基于资产专用性维度的实证分析[J]. 中国农村观察, 2014(4): 42-51.
ZHONG W J, LUO B L. How contract duration be determined?: based on empirical analysis from dimensions of asset specificity[J]. China Rural Survey, 2014(4): 42-51.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[2] 刘丽, 吕杰. 土地流转契约选择及其稳定性[J]. 山东社会科学, 2017(11): 153-158.
LIU L, LYU J. Selection and stability of land transfer contract[J]. Shandong Social Sciences, 2017(11): 153-158.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[3] 常伟. 农地大规模流转期限认知行为研究: 基于安徽省1 010个样本农户的实证分析[J]. 农村经济, 2015(2): 37-41.
CHANG W. Cognitive behavior of large-scale farmland transfer term: based on empirical analysis of 1 010 sample in Anhui Province[J]. Rural Economy, 2015(2): 37-41.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4] 刘瑞峰, 梁飞, 王文超, 等. 农村土地流转差序格局形成及政策调整方向: 基于合约特征和属性的联合考察[J]. 农业技术经济, 2018(4): 27-43.
LIU R F, LIANG F, WANG W C, et al.Priority of rural land transfer and policy choices: a joint study based on contract characteristics and attributes[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2018(4): 27-43.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[5] 何军, 祝丽琴. 土地流转中契约期限的选择: 长期还是短期?: 基于湖北省孝昌县的实证分析[J]. 江苏农业科学, 2018, 46(8): 320-324.
HE J, ZHU L Q. Choice of contract term in land transfer: long-term or short-term?: based on empirical analysis of Xiaochang, Hubei Province[J]. Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences, 2018, 46(8): 320-324.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6] 李承桧, 杨朝现, 陈兰, 等. 基于农户收益风险视角的土地流转期限影响因素实证分析[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2015, 25(5): 66-70.
LI C H, YANG C X, CHEN L, et al. Empirical analysis on factors of land transfer term based on household income and risk perspectives[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2015, 25(5): 66-70.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7] 刘文勇, 张悦. 农地流转中农户租约期限短期倾向的研究: 悖论与解释[J]. 农村经济, 2013(1): 22-25.
LIU W Y, ZHANG Y. Research on the short-term tendency of farmers' lease term in the farmland circulation: paradox and explanation[J]. Rural Economy, 2013(1): 22-25.(in Chinese)
[8] 郜亮亮, 黄季焜, SCOTT R, 等. 中国农地流转市场的发展及其对农户投资的影响[J]. 经济学(季刊), 2011, 10(4): 1499-1514.
GAO L L, HUANG J K, SCOTT R, et al. Emerging rental markets and investment in agricultural land in China[J]. China Economic Quarterly, 2011, 10(4): 1499-1514.(in Chinese)
[9] 邹宝玲, 罗必良, 钟文晶. 农地流转的契约期限选择: 威廉姆森分析范式及其实证[J]. 农业经济问题, 2016, 37(2): 25-32.
ZOU B L, LUO B L, ZHONG W J. Farmland transfer, transaction cost and the choice of contract period: Williamson's paradigm and empirical analysis[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2016, 37(2): 25-32. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10] 刘兆征. 农村土地承包经营权流转调研[J]. 国家行政学院学报, 2015(2): 63-67.
LIU Z Z. Investigation on circulation of rural land contract management rights[J]. Journal of Chinese Academy of Governance, 2015(2): 63-67.(in Chinese)
[11] 毛飞, 孔祥智. 农地规模化流转的制约因素分析[J]. 农业技术经济, 2012(4): 52-64.
MAO F, KONG X Z. Analysis of restrictive factors of large-scale circulation of farmland[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2012(4): 52-64.(in Chinese)
[12] 张西现. 农地流转现状及制约因素分析: 以云南省为例[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2016, 37(3): 101-105.
ZHANG X X. Analysis on the situation and restriction factors in agricultural land circulation: take Yunnan Province as an example[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2016, 37(3): 101-105.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13] 吴学兵, 汪发元, 黎东升. 规模化经营中土地流转价格影响因素的实证分析[J]. 统计与决策, 2016(10): 87-90.
WU X B, WANG F Y, LI D S. Empirical analysis of the factors affecting land circulation price in large-scale operation[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2016(10): 87-90.(in Chinese)
[14] 黄增付. 农民土地转出中的道义理性选择及现实困境: 以核心产粮区典型村庄为例[J]. 农业经济问题, 2016, 37(7): 81-89.
HUANG Z F. The moral rational choice of farmers' land transfer and realistic predicament: case of typical village in the core area of grain production[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2016, 37(7): 81-89.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[15] 江樟焰, 陈云浩, 李京. 基于Landsat TM数据的北京城市热岛研究[J]. 武汉大学学报·信息科学版, 2006, 31(2): 120-123.
JIANG Z Y, CHEN Y H, LI J. Heat island effect of Beijng based on Landsat TM data[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2006, 31(2): 120-123.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16] 徐涵秋. 利用改进的归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)提取水体信息的研究[J]. 遥感学报, 2005, 9(5): 589-595.
XU H Q. A study on information extraction of water body with the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI)[J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2005, 9(5): 589-595.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[17] 朱婉雪, 李仕冀, 张旭博, 等. 基于无人机遥感植被指数优选的田块尺度冬小麦估产[J]. 农业工程学报, 2018, 34(11): 78-86.
ZHU W X, LI S J, ZHANG X B, et al. Estimation of winter wheat yield using optimal vegetation indices from unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2018, 34(11): 78-86.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[18] 孙玮健, 张荣群, 艾东, 等. 基于元胞自动机模型的土地利用情景模拟与驱动力分析[J]. 农业机械学报, 2017, 48(增刊): 254-261.
SUN W J, ZHANG R Q, AI D, et al. Driving force analysis and scenarios simulation of land use based on cell automata model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2017, 48(Supp.): 254-261.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19] 井云清, 张飞, 张月. 基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(11): 3649-3658.
JING Y Q, ZHANG F, ZHANG Y. Change and prediction of the land use/cover in Ebinur Lake Wetland Nature Reserve based on CA-Markov model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(11): 3649-3658.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[20] 何丹, 周璟, 高伟, 等. 基于CA-Markov模型的滇池流域土地利用变化动态模拟研究[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 50(6): 1095-1105.
HE D, ZHOU J, GAO W, et al. An integrated CA-Markov model for dynamic simulation of land use change in Lake Dianchi watershed[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2014, 50(6): 1095-1105.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21] 刘毅, 杨晟, 陈吉宁, 等. 基于元胞自动机模型的城市土地利用变化模拟[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 53(1): 72-77.
LIU Y, YANG S, CHEN J N, et al. Urban land use changes predictions using a cellular automata model[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2013, 53(1): 72-77.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[22] 吕建树, 吴泉源, 张祖陆, 等. 基于RS和GIS的济宁市土地利用变化及生态安全研究[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(8): 928-935.
LYU J S, WU Q Y, ZHANG Z L, et al. Land use change and ecological security assessment in Jining City based on RS and GIS[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(8): 928-935.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23] 陆大道. 我国的城镇化进程与空间扩张[J]. 城市规划学刊, 2007(4): 47-52.
LU D D. Urbanization process and spatial sprawl in China[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2007(4): 47-52.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[24] 杨国清, 刘耀林, 吴志峰. 基于CA-Markov模型的土地利用格局变化研究[J]. 武汉大学学报·信息科学版, 2007, 32(5): 414-418.
YANG G Q, LIU Y L, WU Z F. Analysis and simulation of land-use temporal and spatial pattern based on CA-Markov model[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2007, 32(5): 414-418.(in Chinese with English abstract)

Determination of optimal term of land transfer in suburban villages based on construction land expansion prediction

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	JIN Liwen, LIU Zengjin, LIU Aijun. Participation behavior of pork seller in traceability system: empirical analysis of 636 sellers in Beijing, Shanghai and Jinan, China [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(3): 541-552.
[2]	ZHANG Shasha, ZHENG Xungang, ZHANG Bizhong. Transportation infrastructure, spatial spillover and rural poverty reduction:an empirical study based on panel data [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(3): 553-564.
[3]	WEN Changcun, SUN Yuzhu. Analysis on farmers’ willingness to buy agricultural accessory risk based on regional index in China: a case study on cotton growers in Hebei Province [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(2): 346-354.
[4]	FU Lisha, QIN Tao, PAN Huanxue, DENG Jing. Empirical analysis on scale effect of forest output of forest insurance premium subsidy policy in China: based on difference-in-differences model and event study model [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(2): 355-368.
[5]	LI Haitao, FU Linlin, HUANG Zuhui, PENG Wenhuan. Various forms of moderate-scale management of agriculture and development prospects [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(1): 161-169.
[6]	DONG Yanmin, YAN Fengxian. Spatial-temporal characteristics and coordination of agricultural high-quality development in China [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(1): 170-182.
[7]	HU Chenpei, LI Huishang, GUO Xinzhu. Structural characteristics and development gap of regional agricultural economy in China from 1978 to 2017 [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2020, 32(12): 2253-2260.
[8]	LI Menglu, ZHANG Shemei. Impact of media negative coverage of honey consumption expectations [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2020, 32(12): 2282-2290.
[9]	GAO Yun, ZHAO Zhijun. Influence of imported honey on market of bee products of China [J]. , 2020, 32(11): 2088-2093.
[10]	CHENG Ya, LI Xinyue, ZHANG Chun, ZHANG Shemei. Empirical study on relationship between agricultural manager pressure and cooperative performance [J]. , 2020, 32(11): 2094-2102.
[11]	HUANG Hexiao, LI Baozhi, ZHU Qibiao, YANG Liangshan, WU Jinghua. Practice of cultivation of high-quality farmers in Zhejiang: in case of Zhejiang Agronomist College [J]. , 2020, 32(10): 1890-1898.
[12]	LIU Jiaojiao, ZHANG Gangren, GAO Qun. Study on price relevance of livestock products based on VEC-BEKK-GARCH and spillover index model [J]. , 2020, 32(9): 1711-1721.
[13]	GUO Yanjing, XIAO Haifeng. Support level and structural characteristics of maize subsidy policy in world's major maize producing countries and region [J]. , 2020, 32(9): 1722-1731.
[14]	ZHANG Gongwang, ZHU Mingfen. Rural residential land reform and promotion of farmers' income: based on panel data of 6 pilot counties (cities, districts) with difference-in-difference analysis [J]. , 2020, 32(8): 1475-1484.
[15]	HU Qiaolian, YANG Jun, SHAO Jingsong, ZHOU Pengquan, GUO Jiarui, HOU Manping. Comprehensive evaluation of land use benefit in early stage of pastoral complex construction: taking Lujia Village as an example [J]. , 2020, 32(8): 1485-1492.