Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231263

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 2575-2583.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231263

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Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

XU Jinqin¹^,²(), QIU Xinfa³, ZHU Ping²^,^*(), XIAO Xiao⁴

1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2. Guangdong Meteorological Service Center, Guangzhou 510640, China
3. School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4. Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2023-11-07 Online:2024-11-25 Published:2024-11-27

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the boundary temperature method, the climatological growth period indicators of rice were determined. The temporal variations of water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice in six agricultural regions in China (Northeast China Plain, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Southern China) were compared and analyzed. The specific contribution degree of major climate factors to the changes in water and thermal resources during the climatological growth period of rice were quantitatively evaluated. The results showed that the suitable sowing date of rice was significantly (P<0.05) advanced (-0.08 - -0.30 d·a^-1), the suitable harvest date was delayed (0.04-0.20 d·a^-1), and the climatological growth period was significantly prolonged (0.1-0.5 d·a^-1) in the study area during 1960—2019. The accumulated temperature of rice increased significantly, the humidity index decreased, and the variation type of water and thermal resources of rice in the study regions were warm-dry. In the six agricultural regions, the significant increase of accumulated temperature was generally dominated by the increase of the duration days during rice climatological growth period. The decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain was dominated by a decrease in precipitation, while the decrease of humidity index during rice climatological growth period in the other agricultural regions was dominated by the significant increase in the potential evapotranspiration. In the future, more attention should be paid to the effects of the significant increase in the duration days and potential evapotranspiration during rice climatological growth period on the rice production.

Key words: climate warming, rice climatological growth period, changes in water and thermal resources

CLC Number:

S162.3

XU Jinqin, QIU Xinfa, ZHU Ping, XIAO Xiao. Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(11): 2575-2583.

Figures/Tables 5

Table 1 Interannual change rates of suitable sowing and harvest date for rice from 1960 to 2019 d·a-1

农业区Region	R_ssd	R_shd
R1	-0.08^*	0.04
R2	-0.10^*	0.09^*
R3	-0.20^**	0.05
R4	-0.20^**	0.10^*
R5	-0.20^**	0.20^**
R6	-0.30^**	0.20^**

Table 2 Interannual change rates of accumulated temperature and humidity index during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019

农业区Region	R_at/(℃·d·a^-1)	R_hi/a^-1
R1	3.6^**	-0.003
R2	5.8^**	-0.003
R3	5.0^**	-0.005^**
R4	7.9^**	-0.001
R5	7.4^**	-0.004^*
R6	14.0^**	-0.003

Table 3 Interannual change rates of duration days, average temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019

农业区 Region	R_dd/ (d·a^-1)	R_mt/ (℃·a^-1)	R_p/ (mm·a^-1)	R_pe/ (mm·a^-1)
R1	0.1^*	0.010^**	-0.5	0.8^**
R2	0.2^**	0.005	-1.0	0.6
R3	0.3^*	<0.001	-0.8	1.2^**
R4	0.3^**	0.003	1.3	1.0^*
R5	0.3^**	0.008^**	-0.7	1.3^**
R6	0.5^**	0.007^*	3.0^*	2.5^**

Fig.1 Comparison between the sum of the contribution of heat (water) factors and the change of actual accumulated temperature (humidity index)

Fig.2 Contribution of heat and water factors to changes in accumulated temperature and humidity index during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 R1, Northeast China Plain; R2, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; R3, Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions; R4, Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain; R5, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau; R6, Southern China.

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Change trend and attribution analysis of water and thermal resources during rice climatological growth period from 1960 to 2019 in China

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