农村产业融合与农民收入增长——基于空间效应与门槛效应的实证研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.04.21

浙江农业学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 761-776.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.04.21

• 农业经济与发展 • 上一篇

农村产业融合与农民收入增长——基于空间效应与门槛效应的实证研究

王丽英^a(), 丁姝羽^b, 刘后平^b^,^*()

a.成都理工大学管理科学学院
b.商学院,四川成都 610059

收稿日期:2020-09-10 出版日期:2021-04-25 发布日期:2021-04-25
通讯作者: 刘后平
作者简介:*刘后平,E-mail:lhp0622005@163.com
王丽英(1966—),女,四川冕宁人,硕士,教授,主要从事区域与产业经济研究。E-mail:wly616@163.com
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(20YJA790044);四川省社会科学“十三五”规划2020年度项目(SC20B007);四川省软科学研究计划(2019JDR0136)

Impact of rural industrial convergence on farmers’ income growth: an empirical study based on spatial effect and threshold effect

WANG Liying^a(), DING Shuyu^b, LIU Houping^b^,^*()

a. College of Management Science
b. Business School, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

Received:2020-09-10 Online:2021-04-25 Published:2021-04-25
Contact: LIU Houping

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农村产业融合如何影响农民收入增长是理论和实务界关注的焦点。依据中国除香港、澳门、台湾、西藏外的30个省区市的数据,采用空间计量模型和门槛模型实证分析农村产业融合影响农民收入的空间效应和门槛效应。结果表明:中国农村产业融合水平具有“东高西低”的特征,呈现空间正相关性。以省(区、市)为区域单元,农村产业融合水平对农民收入的影响在区域内具有增收效应,但在区域间没有空间溢出效应;对农村居民经营净收入占比的影响在区域内具有正向效应,在区域间具有负向空间溢出效应;对工资性收入占比的影响在区域内和区域间均具有负向效应。在不同的经营规模下,农村产业融合水平对农民收入的影响存在门槛效应。因此,要推进农村产业融合、实现农民增收,需提升农村产业融合水平,加强区域农村产业间融合活动的联系,发挥示范效应,推进适度规模化经营,实现要素资源的最优配置。

关键词: 农村产业融合, 农民收入, 空间效应, 门槛效应

Abstract:

The impact of rural industrial convergence on farmers’ income growth is a focus both in theory and practice. Based on the data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China (Hongkong, Macao, Taiwan, Tibet not excluded), the spatial and threshold effects of the impact of rural industrial convergence on farmers’ income were empirically analyzed by using spatial measurement models and threshold models in this study. It is shown that the level of rural industrial convergence in China has the characteristics of “east high and west low”, and it has positive correlation with space. From the regional perspective with single province (autonomous region, municipality) as study unit, the level of rural industrial convergence has a positive effect on farmers’ income in the region, yet it has no spatial spillover effect within regions. The level of rural industrial convergence has a positive effect on the proportion of net business income in disposable income in the region, yet it has a negative spatial spillover effect within regions. The level of rural industrial convergence has a negative effect on the proportion of wage income in disposable income both in the region and within regions. Under different operation scales, the level of rural industrial convergence has a threshold effect on farmers’ income. Therefore, to promote the convergence of rural industry and to increase farmers’ income, it is necessary to raise the level of rural industrial convergence, strengthen the links within regional convergence activities, exert the demonstration effect of successes, promote moderate scale operation, and realize the optimal allocation of factor resources.

Key words: rural industrial convergence, farmers’ income, spatial effect, threshold effect

中图分类号:

S-9
F323.8

王丽英, 丁姝羽, 刘后平. 农村产业融合与农民收入增长——基于空间效应与门槛效应的实证研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(4): 761-776.

WANG Liying, DING Shuyu, LIU Houping. Impact of rural industrial convergence on farmers’ income growth: an empirical study based on spatial effect and threshold effect[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(4): 761-776.

图/表 11

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一级指标 Primary indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	指标权重 Weight	指标含义 Denotation
农业产业链延伸 Extension of agricultural industry chain	农副食品加工业主营业务收入/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the business income of agricultural food processing industry to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.155	农业产业化经营水平、农业产业链延伸的经济效益 The management level of agricultural industrialization & economic benefits of agricultural industry chain extension
	农产品初加工机械动力/农业机械总动力 The ratio of the machinery power of agricultural primary products processing to the total power of agricultural machinery	0.121	农业产业链延伸的发展规模 The development scale of agricultural industry chain extension
农业多功能扩展 Extension of multi- function of agriculture	休闲农业营业收入/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the business income of leisure agriculture to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.233	农业自然、经济、社会、文化功能的发挥情况 The exertion of agricultural natural, economic, social and cultural functions
	二三产业从业人员/就业人口 The ratio of the working population of secondary and tertiary industries to the total working population	0.047	第二产业和第三产业对就业的带动水平 The contribution of the secondary and tertiary industries to employment
农业新型业态 New forms of agriculture	设施农业总面积/耕地面积 The ratio of the area of equipment agriculture to cultivated land area	0.329	衡量农业科技与传统农业结合下农业新业态的培育规模 The cultivation scale of new agricultural forms under the combination of agricultural technology and traditional agriculture
农业服务业融合 Convergence of agricultural services	农林牧渔业服务业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the gross output value of service industry of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.115	农林牧渔业服务业的支持性活动与农林牧渔业生产活动的融合程度 The degree of convergence between supporting activities and production activities of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery

一级指标 Primary indicator	二级指标 Secondary indicator	指标权重 Weight	指标含义 Denotation
农业产业链延伸 Extension of agricultural industry chain	农副食品加工业主营业务收入/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the business income of agricultural food processing industry to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.155	农业产业化经营水平、农业产业链延伸的经济效益 The management level of agricultural industrialization & economic benefits of agricultural industry chain extension
	农产品初加工机械动力/农业机械总动力 The ratio of the machinery power of agricultural primary products processing to the total power of agricultural machinery	0.121	农业产业链延伸的发展规模 The development scale of agricultural industry chain extension
农业多功能扩展 Extension of multi- function of agriculture	休闲农业营业收入/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the business income of leisure agriculture to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.233	农业自然、经济、社会、文化功能的发挥情况 The exertion of agricultural natural, economic, social and cultural functions
	二三产业从业人员/就业人口 The ratio of the working population of secondary and tertiary industries to the total working population	0.047	第二产业和第三产业对就业的带动水平 The contribution of the secondary and tertiary industries to employment
农业新型业态 New forms of agriculture	设施农业总面积/耕地面积 The ratio of the area of equipment agriculture to cultivated land area	0.329	衡量农业科技与传统农业结合下农业新业态的培育规模 The cultivation scale of new agricultural forms under the combination of agricultural technology and traditional agriculture
农业服务业融合 Convergence of agricultural services	农林牧渔业服务业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值 The ratio of the gross output value of service industry of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery to the gross output value of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	0.115	农林牧渔业服务业的支持性活动与农林牧渔业生产活动的融合程度 The degree of convergence between supporting activities and production activities of farming, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery

类别	变量	符号	含义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Category	Variable	Symbol	Denotation	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
被解释变量 Explained variable	农民收入 Farmers’ income	lnincome	农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	9.156	0.416	8.139	10.234
	经营净收入占比 Proportion of business income in disposable income	OI	农村居民经营净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the business income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.421	0.142	0.042	0.786
	工资性收入占比 Proportion of wages income in disposable income	WI	农村居民工资性收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the wages income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.405	0.139	0.120	0.776
	财产净收入占比 Proportion of property income in disposable income	CI	农村居民财产净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the property income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.028	0.017	0.007	0.104
	转移净收入占比 Proportion of transfer income in disposable income	TI	农村居民转移净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the transfer income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.147	0.067	0.048	0.309
核心解释变量 Core explanatory variable	农村产业融合水平 Rural industrial convergence level	lncon	反映农村产业融合发展的综合评价结果 The comprehensive evaluation results of rural industry convergence development	-1.995	0.496	-2.991	-0.737
控制变量 Control variable	农村信贷投入 Rural credit allocation	lnaloan	涉农贷款余额与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of agricultural loan balances to the rural population	10.422	0.646	9.030	12.101
	人力资本 Human capital	education	农村居民人均受教育年限 Per capita education years of rural residents	7.718	0.596	5.880	9.800
	公路密度 Highway density	lnroad	公路运营里程与国土面积之比 Ratio of highway operating mileage to the area of the region	-4.448	0.847	-6.688	-3.374
	农村固定资产投资 Rural fixed-assets investment	lnafe	农村固定资产投资与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of the fixed-assets investment of farmers to the rural population	7.271	0.584	4.415	8.248
	经营规模 Operation scale	lnaland	耕地面积与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of cultivated land area to the rural population	-1.602	0.644	-2.757	0.030

类别	变量	符号	含义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
Category	Variable	Symbol	Denotation	Mean	Standard deviation	Minimum	Maximum
被解释变量 Explained variable	农民收入 Farmers’ income	lnincome	农村居民人均可支配收入 Per capita disposable income of rural residents	9.156	0.416	8.139	10.234
	经营净收入占比 Proportion of business income in disposable income	OI	农村居民经营净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the business income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.421	0.142	0.042	0.786
	工资性收入占比 Proportion of wages income in disposable income	WI	农村居民工资性收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the wages income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.405	0.139	0.120	0.776
	财产净收入占比 Proportion of property income in disposable income	CI	农村居民财产净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the property income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.028	0.017	0.007	0.104
	转移净收入占比 Proportion of transfer income in disposable income	TI	农村居民转移净收入与农村居民人均可支配收入之比 Ratio of the transfer income to the disposable income of rural residents	0.147	0.067	0.048	0.309
核心解释变量 Core explanatory variable	农村产业融合水平 Rural industrial convergence level	lncon	反映农村产业融合发展的综合评价结果 The comprehensive evaluation results of rural industry convergence development	-1.995	0.496	-2.991	-0.737
控制变量 Control variable	农村信贷投入 Rural credit allocation	lnaloan	涉农贷款余额与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of agricultural loan balances to the rural population	10.422	0.646	9.030	12.101
	人力资本 Human capital	education	农村居民人均受教育年限 Per capita education years of rural residents	7.718	0.596	5.880	9.800
	公路密度 Highway density	lnroad	公路运营里程与国土面积之比 Ratio of highway operating mileage to the area of the region	-4.448	0.847	-6.688	-3.374
	农村固定资产投资 Rural fixed-assets investment	lnafe	农村固定资产投资与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of the fixed-assets investment of farmers to the rural population	7.271	0.584	4.415	8.248
	经营规模 Operation scale	lnaland	耕地面积与乡村人口数之比 Ratio of cultivated land area to the rural population	-1.602	0.644	-2.757	0.030

区域 Region	平均值 Mean	年均增长率 Annual growth rate	区域 Region	平均值 Mean	年均增长率 Annual growth rate	区域 Region	平均值 Mean	年均增长率 Annual growth rate
北京Beijing	0.275	0.028	山西Shanxi	0.094	0.013	内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.124	-0.010
天津Tianjin	0.422	0.068	吉林Jilin	0.241	-0.002	广西Guangxi	0.133	0.031
河北Hebei	0.123	0.027	黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.116	-0.115	重庆Chongqing	0.171	0.074
辽宁Liaoning	0.211	-0.061	安徽Anhui	0.166	0.064	四川Sichuan	0.150	0.010
上海Shanghai	0.266	0.070	江西Jiangxi	0.161	0.057	贵州Guizhou	0.074	0.023
江苏Jiangsu	0.173	0.039	河南Henan	0.160	0.060	云南Yunnan	0.078	0.008
浙江Zhejiang	0.128	0.021	湖北Hubei	0.167	0.042	陕西Shaanxi	0.101	0.057
福建Fujian	0.173	0.037	湖南Hunan	0.147	0.057	甘肃Gansu	0.079	0.010
山东Shandong	0.276	0.027				青海Qinghai	0.068	0.044
广东Guangdong	0.141	0.018				宁夏Ningxia	0.083	0.047
海南Hainan	0.062	-0.010				新疆Xinjiang	0.061	0.033
东部总体 Total in the east	0.204	0.032	中部总体 Total in the central	0.156	0.028	西部总体 Total in the west	0.102	0.031

农村产业融合与农民收入增长——基于空间效应与门槛效应的实证研究

Impact of rural industrial convergence on farmers’ income growth: an empirical study based on spatial effect and threshold effect

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等级 Classification	取值范围 Range	2010	2017
低水平 Low level	0.050~<0.157	河北Hebei、山西Shanxi、内蒙古Inner Mongolia、黑龙江Heilongjiang、江苏Jiangsu、浙江Zhejiang、安徽Anhui、福建Fujian、江西Jiangxi、河南Henan、湖北Hubei、湖南Hunan、广东Guangdong、广西Guangxi、海南Hainan、重庆Chongqing、四川Sichuan、贵州Guizhou、云南Yunnan、陕西Shaanxi、甘肃Gansu、青海Qinghai、宁夏Ningxia、新疆Xinjiang	河北Hebei、山西Shanxi、内蒙古Inner Mongolia、辽宁Liaoning、黑龙江Heilongjiang、浙江Zhejiang、广东Guangdong、广西Guangxi、海南Hainan、贵州Guizhou、云南Yunnan、陕西Shaanxi、甘肃Gansu、青海Qinghai、宁夏Ningxia、新疆Xinjiang
中下水平 Middle and lower level	0.157~<0.264	北京Beijing、辽宁Liaoning、吉林Jilin、上海Shanghai、山东Shandong	吉林Jilin、江苏Jiangsu、安徽Anhui、福建Fujian、江西Jiangxi、河南Henan、湖北Hubei、湖南Hunan、重庆Chongqing、四川Sichuan
中上水平 Middle and higher level	0.264~<0.371	天津Tianjin	北京Beijing、上海Shanghai、山东Shandong
高水平High level	0.371~0.478	—	天津Tianjin

年份 Year	空间邻接权重Adjacency weight			地理权重Geography weight
年份 Year	Moran’s Ⅰ	Z	P	Moran’s Ⅰ	Z	P
2010	0.300	2.754	0.003	0.394	4.536	<0.001
2011	0.301	2.789	0.003	0.387	4.521	<0.001
2012	0.263	2.712	0.003	0.338	4.370	<0.001
2013	0.303	2.907	0.002	0.368	4.480	<0.001
2014	0.281	2.635	0.004	0.333	3.959	<0.001
2015	0.288	2.862	0.002	0.341	4.301	<0.001
2016	0.302	2.884	0.002	0.346	4.204	<0.001
2017	0.249	2.442	0.007	0.260	3.263	0.001

变量 Variable	模型Ⅰ Model Ⅰ		模型Ⅱ Model Ⅱ		模型Ⅲ Model Ⅲ
变量 Variable	系数 Coefficient	稳健性标准误差 Robust standard error	系数 Coefficient	稳健性标准误差 Robust standard error	系数 Coefficient	稳健性标准误差 Robust standard error
lncon	0.100^**	0.045	0.045^**	0.019	0.053^***	0.019
lnaloan	0.537^***	0.030	0.089^***	0.028	0.109^***	0.032
education	0.145^***	0.039	0.049^***	0.011	0.048^***	0.012
lnroad	0.407^**	0.149	0.161^**	0.077	0.166^**	0.069
lnafe	0.089^**	0.041	0.074^***	0.016	0.063^***	0.020
lnaland	-0.080	0.345	0.167	0.111	0.168	0.112
α	3.676^***	0.949	—	—	—	—
W×lncon	—	—	-0.007	0.028	-0.038	0.036
W×lnaloan	—	—	-0.096^**	0.049	-0.180^***	0.063
W×education	—	—	0.048	0.031	-0.007	0.028
W×lnroad	—	—	0.319	0.217	0.674^***	0.255
W×lnafe	—	—	0.041	0.039	0.059^**	0.029
W×lnaland	—	—	0.075	0.246	0.182	0.290
ρ	—	—	0.297^***	0.109	0.151^*	0.088
残差方差	—	—	0.001^***	<0.001	0.001^***	0.001
Residue variance
AIC	-703.849		-1 110.012		-1 112.128
BIC	-682.965		-1 061.283		-1 063.399
极大似然值	357.925		569.006		570.064
Loglikelihood

变量 Variable	直接效应Direct effect		间接效应Indirect effect		总效应Total effect
变量 Variable	模型Ⅱ Model Ⅱ	模型Ⅲ Model Ⅲ	模型Ⅱ Model Ⅱ	模型Ⅲ Model Ⅲ	模型Ⅱ Model Ⅱ	模型Ⅲ Model Ⅲ
lncon	0.046^**[0.019]	0.052^***[0.019]	0.010 [0.040]	-0.037 [0.043]	0.056 [0.045]	0.015 [0.040]
lnaloan	0.081^***[0.024]	0.101^***[0.028]	-0.104^*[0.058]	-0.201^***[0.062]	-0.024 [0.066]	-0.099 [0.069]
education	0.055^***[0.013]	0.049^***[0.013]	0.083^**[0.038]	0.001 [0.026]	0.138^***[0.043]	0.051^*[0.030]
lnroad	0.199^**[0.088]	0.190^**[0.075]	0.519 [0.316]	0.838^***[0.294]	0.718^*[0.371]	1.029^***[0.333]
lnafe	0.075^***[0.019]	0.061^***[0.021]	0.086^*[0.051]	0.080^*[0.042]	0.162^***[0.059]	0.141^***[0.042]
lnaland	0.185 [0.124]	0.183 [0.113]	0.165 [0.363]	0.277 [0.322]	0.350 [0.443]	0.460 [0.385]

变量 Variable	模型Ⅳ Model Ⅳ				模型Ⅴ Model Ⅴ
变量 Variable	OI	WI	CI	TI	OI	WI	CI	TI
lncon	0.020^* [0.011]	-0.049^*** [0.017]	0.011^*** [0.004]	0.018 [0.013]	0.018 [0.014]	-0.041^** [0.016]	0.011^*** [0.004]	0.014 [0.014]
lnaloan	-0.078^*** [0.010]	0.016 [0.014]	0.004 [0.005]	0.052^*** [0.019]	-0.035^* [0.019]	0.010 [0.013]	0.003 [0.005]	0.057^*** [0.019]
education	-0.051^*** [0.009]	-0.016 [0.013]	0.012^*** [0.003]	0.034^*** [0.010]	-0.016 [0.011]	-0.017 [0.012]	0.012^*** [0.003]	0.038^*** [0.011]
lnroad	0.017^*** [0.007]	0.051 [0.065]	0.057^*** [0.0137]	0.034 [0.050]	-0.092^* [0.050]	0.062 [0.060]	0.057^*** [0.014]	0.033 [0.051]
lnafe	0.065^*** [0.009]	0.042^*** [0.013]	-0.001 [0.003]	-0.026^** [0.010]	-0.023^** [0.010]	0.035^*** [0.012]	-0.001 [0.003]	-0.016 [0.010]
lnaland	0.157^*** [0.009]	-0.278^*** [0.080]	0.092^*** [0.017]	0.272^*** [0.063]	-0.109^* [0.063]	-0.244^*** [0.074]	0.092^*** [0.017]	0.287^*** [0.064]
ρ	-0.334^*** [0.069]	0.384^*** [0.071]	-0.110 [0.086]	0.578^*** [0.063]	0.242^** [0.100]	0.619^*** [0.071]	-0.013 [0.092]	0.595^*** [0.072]
残差方差 Residue variance	0.004^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]	0.001^*** [0.001]
AIC	-578.8	-911.1	-1 691.5	-1 053.0	-1 068.6	-938.3	-1 689.9	-1 046.9
BIC	-488.3	-820.6	-1 601.0	-962.5	-978.1	-847.8	-1 599.4	-956.4
极大似然值	315.394	481.55	871.751	552.513	560.283	495.166	870.948	549.453
Loglikelihood

收入结构 Income structure	直接效应Direct effect		间接效应Indirect effect		总效应Total effect
收入结构 Income structure	模型Ⅳ Model Ⅳ	模型Ⅴ Model Ⅴ	模型Ⅳ Model Ⅳ	模型Ⅴ Model Ⅴ	模型Ⅳ Model Ⅳ	模型Ⅴ Model Ⅴ
OI	0.021^* [0.011]	0.019 [0.014]	-0.006^* [0.003]	0.005 [0.005]	0.015^* [0.007]	0.024 [0.018]
WI	-0.052^*** [0.019]	-0.046^** [0.018]	-0.030^** [0.015]	-0.068^* [0.037]	-0.082^** [0.032]	-0.014^** [0.053]
TI	0.020 [0.015]	0.016 [0.015]	0.023 [0.019]	0.020 [0.021]	0.042 [0.033]	0.035 [0.036]

[1]	张莉;曲玮;*;王生林. 西北干旱地区农民收入差异实证分析[J]. , 2013, 25(3): 0-666.
[2]	许连君. 浙江农村劳动力教育与农民增收的相关性分析[J]. , 2013, 25(3): 0-683.