Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 1956-1970.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

TAO Yuan¹(), ZHOU Yuxi², HU Jilian³^,^*()

1. College of Finance and Economics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Tai’an 271019, China
2. College of Public Administration, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
3. College of Marxism, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China

Received:2020-10-27 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-11-02
Contact: HU Jilian

Abstract

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, the application of chemical fertilizers in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, the same as below) has shown a trend of continuous growth. In 2016, there was a negative growth for the first time, but the application intensity of chemical fertilizers did not substantially decrease. Currently, the application intensity of chemical fertilizers in China is still higher than the international safety standard. Based on the analysis of the current status of chemical fertilizer application in China, a factor decomposition model was introduced to scientifically analyze the relationship within structure share, efficiency share and changes in chemical fertilizer application intensity from two aspects of high-fertilizer crops and high-intensity areas. The results showed that the application amount and intensity of chemical fertilizer in China were on the rise as a whole in 1990-2018. The difference in planting structure within regions was one of the important reasons for the regional differences in chemical fertilizer application intensity. At the aspects of high-fertilizer crops, the biased planting structure toward fruits and vegetables was the leading factor for the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity, and the structure drive rate reached 66.74%. At the aspect of high-intensity areas, the structure share and efficiency share both contributed to the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity. However, the efficiency drive effect has increased since 2017. Factors, such as the level of economic development, agricultural labor transfer, and the urbanization development level had significant (P<0.1) impact on the chemical fertilizer application intensity. Therefore, more efforts should be devoted to the adjustment and optimization of planting structure by reducing the sowing area of high-fertilizer crops, as well as the improvement in the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizers via promotion of fertilizer-saving technologies, to reduce chemical fertilizer application intensity in the future.

Key words: fertilizer application intensity, factor decomposition, structure drive rate, efficiency drive rate, control path

CLC Number:

S147.2
S181

TAO Yuan, ZHOU Yuxi, HU Jilian. Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(10): 1956-1970.

Figures/Tables 10

References 26

[1]	王祖力, 肖海峰. 化肥施用对粮食产量增长的作用分析[J]. 农业经济问题, 2008, 29(8):65-68.
	WANG Z L, XIAO H F. Analysis on the role of fertilization on grain yield growth[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2008, 29(8):65-68.(in Chinese)
[2]	饶静, 许翔宇, 纪晓婷. 我国农业面源污染现状、发生机制和对策研究[J]. 农业经济问题, 2011, 32(8):81-87.
	RAO J, XU X Y, JI X T. Current status, mechanism and countermeasures of agricultural non-point source pollution in China[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2011, 32(8):81-87.(in Chinese)
[3]	何浩然, 张林秀, 李强. 农民施肥行为及农业面源污染研究[J]. 农业技术经济, 2006(6):2-10.
	HE H R, ZHANG L X, LI Q. Rational fertilization and reduction of large-scale farmland pollution by rationalized fertilizer usage[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2006(6):2-10.(in Chinese)
[4]	EBENSTEIN A. The consequences of industrialization: evidence from water pollution and digestive cancers in China[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012, 94(1):186-201. DOI URL
[5]	钟太洋, 黄贤金, 王柏源. 非农业就业对农户施用有机肥的影响[J]. 中国土地科学, 2011, 25(11):67-73.
	ZHONG T Y, HUANG X J, WANG B Y. Impact of off-farm employment on the rural household’s decision of using organic fertilizer[J]. China Land Science, 2011, 25(11):67-73.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[6]	张锋, 胡浩. 农户化肥投入行为与面源污染问题研究[J]. 江西农业学报, 2012, 24(1):183-186.
	ZHANG F, HU H. Study on farmer’s chemical fertilizer input behavior and non-point source pollution[J]. Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi, 2012, 24(1):183-186.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[7]	仇焕广, 栾昊, 李瑾, 等. 风险规避对农户化肥过量施用行为的影响[J]. 中国农村经济, 2014 (3):85-96.
	QIU H G, LUAN H, LI J, et al. Effect of risk aversion on excessive application of chemical fertilizers of farmers[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2014 (3):85-96. (in Chinese)
[8]	潘丹. 中国化肥消费强度变化驱动效应时空差异与影响因素解析[J]. 经济地理, 2014, 34(3):121-126.
	PAN D. The spatial-temporal difference of driving effects for fertilizer use intensity change and its determinants in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(3):121-126. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[9]	栾江, 仇焕广, 井月, 等. 我国化肥施用量持续增长的原因分解及趋势预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.
	LUAN J, QIU H G, JING Y, et al. Decomposition of factors contributed to the increase of China’s chemical fertilizer use and projections for future fertilizer use in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013, 28(11):1869-1878.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[10]	李静, 李晶瑜. 中国粮食生产的化肥利用效率及决定因素研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2011, 32(5):565-568.
	LI J, LI J Y. Fertilizer using efficiency of China’s grain production and its determining factors[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2011, 32(5):565-568.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[11]	史常亮, 朱俊峰, 栾江. 我国小麦化肥投入效率及其影响因素分析: 基于全国15个小麦主产省的实证[J]. 农业技术经济, 2015(11):69-78.
	SHI C L, ZHU J F, LUAN J. Efficiency of chemical fertilizer input of wheat in China: empirical study of 15 main wheat producing provinces[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2015(11):69-78.(in Chinese)
[12]	张永强, 蒲晨曦, 王珧, 等. 化肥投入效率测度及归因: 来自20个玉米生产省份的面板证据[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(7):1333-1343.
	ZHANG Y Q, PU C X, WANG Y, et al. The efficiency estimation of fertilizer input and attribution: panel evidence from 20 corn producing provinces[J]. Resources Science, 2018, 40(7):1333-1343.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[13]	史常亮, 朱俊峰, 栾江. 农户化肥施用技术效率及其影响因素分析: 基于4省水稻种植户的调查数据[J]. 农林经济管理学报, 2015, 14(3):234-242.
	SHI C L, ZHU J F, LUAN J. Fertilizing technical efficiency and its determinants: based on rice farmers’ data in four provinces[J]. Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management, 2015, 14(3):234-242.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[14]	张卫峰, 季玥秀, 马骥, 等. 中国化肥消费需求影响因素及走势分析Ⅱ: 种植结构[J]. 资源科学, 2008, 30(1):31-36.
	ZHANG W F, JI Y X, MA J, et al. Driving forces of fertilizer consumption in China Ⅱ: planting structure[J]. Resources Science, 2008, 30(1):31-36.(in Chinese)
[15]	刘莉, 刘静. 基于种植结构调整视角的化肥减施对策研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2019, 40(1):17-25.
	LIU L, LIU J. Study on the path of chemical fertilizer reduction from the perspective of planting structure[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2019, 40(1):17-25.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[16]	BAYRAMOGLU B, CHAKIR R. The impact of high crop prices on the use of agro-chemical inputs in France: a structural econometric analysis[J]. Land Use Policy, 2016, 55:204-211. DOI URL
[17]	高晶晶, 彭超, 史清华. 中国化肥高用量与小农户的施肥行为研究: 基于1995—2016年全国农村固定观察点数据的发现[J]. 管理世界, 2019, 35(10):120-132.
	GAO J J, PENG C, SHI Q H. Study on the high chemical fertilizers consumption and fertilization behavior of small rural household in China: discovery from 1995-2016 national fixed point survey data[J]. Management World, 2019, 35(10):120-132.(in Chinese)
[18]	佟金萍, 马剑锋, 刘高峰. 基于完全分解模型的中国万元GDP用水量变动及因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2011, 33(10):1870-1876.
	TONG J P, MA J F, LIU G F. Analysis of variations and factors of water use amount per ten thousand yuan GDP in China based on a complete decomposition model[J]. Resources Science, 2011, 33(10):1870-1876.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[19]	郑微微, 徐雪高. 江苏省化肥施用强度变化驱动因子分解及其影响因素分析[J]. 华中农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2017(4):55-62.
	ZHENG W W, XU X G. Decomposition of driving factors and analysis of influencing factors on the change of chemical fertilizer intensity in Jiangsu Province[J]. Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 2017(4):55-62. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[20]	李太平, 张锋, 胡浩. 中国化肥面源污染EKC验证及其驱动因素[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(11):118-123.
	LI T P, ZHANG F, HU H. Authentication of the Kuznets curve in agriculture non-point source pollution and its drivers analysis[J]. China Population,Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(11):118-123.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[21]	王德章, 王甲樑. 新形势下我国食品消费结构升级研究[J]. 农业经济问题, 2010, 31(6):75-79.
	WANG D Z, WANG J L. Research on the upgrade of Chinese food consuming structure under the new situation[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2010, 31(6):75-79. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[22]	杨浩, 吴才武, 周思言, 等. 京津冀地区城镇化与资源环境协调发展研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2020, 34(9):17-24.
	YANG H, WU C W, ZHOU S Y, et al. Coordinated development of urbanization, resources and environment in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2020, 34(9):17-24.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[23]	黄金川, 方创琳. 城市化与生态环境交互耦合机制与规律性分析[J]. 地理研究, 2003, 22(2):211-220.
	HUANG J C, FANG C L. Analysis of coupling mechanism and rules between urbanization and eco-environment[J]. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(2):211-220.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[24]	卢瑜, 向平安. 城镇化和生态环境的协同耦合研究: 以长株潭城市群为例[J]. 城市发展研究, 2020, 27(1):1-6.
	LU Y, XIANG P A. Analysis of the coupling relationship between ecological environment and urbanization: Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration in Hunan Province, China as a case[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2020, 27(1):1-6.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[25]	何山, 孙媛媛, 沈掌泉, 等. 大数据时代精准施肥模式实现路径及其技术和方法研究展望[J]. 植物营养与肥料学报, 2017, 23(6):1514-1524.
	HE S, SUN Y Y, SHEN Z Q, et al. Advances in coupling big data technique with nutrient site-specific management: scheme, methods and outlook[J]. Journal of Plant Nutrition and Fertilizer, 2017, 23(6):1514-1524.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[26]	刘珍环, 杨鹏, 吴文斌, 等. 近30年中国农作物种植结构时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(5):840-851. DOI
	LIU Z H, YANG P, WU W B, et al. Spatio-temporal changes in Chinese crop patterns over the past three decades[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5):840-851.(in Chinese with English abstract)

年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	全国平均 National average	北部高原地区 Northern plateau	东北地区 Northeast area	西北地区 Northwest area	西南地区 Southwest area	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaihai area	长江中下游地区 The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River	华南地区 South China	青藏地区 Qinghai- Tibet area
1997	258.54	191.95	204.72	208.08	193.46	312.65	288.60	307.85	126.79
1998	262.27	197.75	208.76	211.17	192.99	322.59	295.36	296.69	119.30
1999	263.75	204.55	211.48	198.65	187.60	330.89	293.21	305.40	124.78
2000	265.28	203.88	196.36	201.49	197.61	334.64	291.96	319.91	123.61
2001	273.19	217.34	184.20	210.63	200.19	342.91	307.89	336.92	134.23
2002	280.62	217.20	195.09	215.62	205.02	354.89	311.29	353.60	140.26
2003	289.45	239.79	197.71	224.01	209.20	357.45	323.57	368.45	144.19
2004	301.96	246.92	227.27	236.33	214.97	374.63	330.54	385.13	150.45
2005	306.53	254.44	217.10	246.34	218.69	387.37	335.35	388.08	157.37
2006	313.83	263.56	223.73	259.35	223.39	398.01	339.43	400.71	160.49
2007	332.83	277.65	222.47	265.77	248.20	415.78	362.57	466.40	162.75
2008	335.26	287.04	227.52	275.63	249.34	415.76	364.07	467.21	169.46
2009	340.67	307.30	239.85	276.55	249.73	423.50	363.87	470.13	169.53
2010	346.15	322.41	250.71	288.90	252.81	431.86	361.36	474.57	171.51
2011	351.50	328.47	263.17	298.40	260.02	436.08	364.12	476.61	166.01
2012	357.30	356.72	272.90	308.77	260.48	440.75	365.03	477.81	179.15
2013	359.11	366.36	281.18	317.99	258.04	442.17	362.77	477.83	192.69
2014	362.44	367.58	286.39	344.41	260.69	443.74	360.60	491.63	192.62
2015	361.99	367.14	287.75	346.46	262.80	444.22	356.01	490.42	198.47
2016	359.08	363.77	286.24	339.48	262.36	441.01	350.68	493.75	179.44
2017	352.27	348.49	250.82	347.75	262.21	429.87	349.01	553.78	175.44
2018	340.77	340.40	247.94	343.61	250.79	419.10	336.58	514.59	163.10

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 26

Related Articles 11

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity		行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity
行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018	行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018
全国平均National average	318.85	340.77	黑龙江Heilongjiang	161.26	167.38
北京Beijing	483.41	703.28	上海Shanghai	327.56	297.56
天津Tianjin	435.01	393.66	江苏Jiangsu	429.35	388.95
河北Hebei	348.08	381.11	浙江Zhejiang	340.55	393.19
山西Shanxi	270.36	308.28	安徽Anhui	335.19	355.49
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	211.24	252.38	福建Fujian	512.95	701.83
辽宁Liaoning	331.40	344.66	江西Jiangxi	234.07	221.75
吉林Jilin	326.71	375.44	山东Shandong	412.93	379.44
河南Henan	407.74	468.63	贵州Guizhou	168.47	163.40
湖北Hubei	395.50	371.94	云南Yunnan	264.79	315.49
湖南Hunan	267.06	299.10	西藏Tibet	178.99	192.31
广东Guangdong	463.09	540.50	陕西Shaanxi	417.98	561.23
广西Guangxi	351.34	426.96	甘肃Gansu	203.66	220.48
海南Hainan	479.47	678.92	青海Qinghai	150.05	148.93
重庆Chongqing	245.60	278.33	宁夏Ningxia	238.22	329.73
四川Sichuan	241.48	244.61	新疆Xinjiang	327.62	420.17

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate					效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997—1998	-7.38	-52.04	7.53	-19.18	56.32	107.38	22.77	14.57	75.35	-5.32
1998—1999	13.62	0.13	-2.08	2.16	13.42	86.38	0.38	-1.82	66.11	21.70
1999—2000	59.34	1.24	-4.35	11.81	50.63	-58.34	2.82	3.80	-80.01	15.06
2000—2002	32.88	-0.62	3.11	5.16	25.22	67.12	-0.24	-3.83	68.75	2.44
2002—2003	20.70	-0.31	0.43	11.51	9.06	79.30	0.03	1.83	58.22	19.23
2003—2004	-0.07	0.02	0.48	-6.01	5.48	100.07	2.37	2.27	75.44	19.99
2004—2005	-3.81	-1.08	0.86	-4.7	1.11	103.81	-0.39	-0.39	81.77	22.82
2005—2006	22.09	6.62	-4.25	-25.88	45.59	77.91	-15.94	-20.32	269.11	-154.95
2006—2007	-43.34	-0.50	9.51	-12.58	-40.77	143.34	-0.04	8.13	109.37	26.29
2007—2008	-67.91	-5.07	-11.07	-16.27	-35.5	167.90	1.18	28.56	15.60	122.57
2008—2009	-5.02	-1.13	-13.03	17.91	-8.77	105.02	-4.11	9.10	-140.47	240.5
2009—2010	-12.17	-0.45	-0.93	4.33	-15.12	112.17	1.25	6.65	67.26	37.01
2010—2011	47.44	2.31	-0.45	-3.40	48.97	52.56	-0.27	1.89	13.22	37.71
2011—2012	-38.67	-5.00	-2.66	-5.32	-25.68	138.67	-2.05	-3.67	64.49	79.92
2012—2013	-16.59	-1.88	2.54	15.42	-32.68	116.59	2.75	-27.22	-14.53	155.59
2013—2014	-27.54	5.69	5.31	-29.33	-9.22	127.54	0.49	-0.83	-58.62	186.50
2014—2015	51.02	6.33	13.88	39.51	-8.70	48.98	0.46	0.77	23.67	24.07
2015—2016	-96.91	-5.39	-16.49	-65.71	-9.33	196.91	0.74	11.54	-93.86	278.49
2016—2017	45.55	-3.33	-2.32	23.42	27.78	54.45	-0.79	-6.92	53.36	8.79
2017—2018	108.65	-4.28	3.75	74.75	34.43	-8.65	0.97	-9.26	-114.25	113.89
1997—2018	66.74	-5.48	-0.44	26.23	46.43	33.26	2.55	1.98	8.85	19.88

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate			效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China
1997—1998	565.13	49.45	515.69	-465.13	330.89	-796.03
1998—1999	55.98	25.56	30.42	44.02	13.55	30.47
1999—2000	68.12	30.96	37.17	31.88	3.53	28.35
2000—2001	50.16	9.58	40.57	49.84	13.02	36.83
2001—2002	53.66	13.89	39.77	46.34	18.71	27.62
2002—2003	59.19	21.16	38.04	40.81	3.18	37.63
2003—2004	21.67	1.45	20.22	78.33	26.22	52.11
2004—2005	31.86	-28.97	60.83	68.14	45.80	22.34
2005—2006	36.94	-10.25	47.19	63.06	17.44	45.62
2006—2007	33.03	-3.75	36.78	66.97	6.79	60.18
2007—2008	89.77	-12.57	102.34	10.23	-0.10	10.33
2008—2009	22.35	7.19	15.16	77.65	39.68	37.97
2009—2010	32.59	10.33	22.26	67.41	28.39	39.02
2010—2011	62.20	11.74	50.46	16.80	21.00	-4.20
2011—2012	69.90	20.08	49.82	30.10	18.09	12.00
2012—2013	97.97	71.77	26.20	2.03	1.95	0.08
2013—2014	-61.39	-198.57	137.18	161.39	7.06	154.33
2014—2015	78.30	4.22	74.08	21.70	-3.88	25.58
2015—2016	73.50	-1.60	75.10	26.50	-15.21	41.71
2016—2017	-102.90	-125.86	22.95	202.90	-13.35	216.25
2017—2018	-58.19	-0.69	-57.50	158.19	11.56	146.63
1997—2018	50.58	-9.86	60.45	49.42	10.65	38.77

变量 Variable	水果Fruit
变量 Variable	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P
人均GDP GDP per capita	0.661^*	0.318	0.055	0.381^***	0.127	0.009
人均GDP的二次方 Quadratic of GDP per capita	-11.667^**	5.346	0.045	-5.536^**	2.159	0.022
消费结构升级 Consumption structure upgrade	0.116	0.469	0.808	0.118	0.329	0.725
农业劳动力转移 Agricultural labor transfer	5.641^**	2.200	0.022	3.227^***	0.892	0.003
城镇化发展水平 Urbanization development level	2.897^**	1.460	0.066	-1.345^**	0.583	0.036
常数项 Constant	-4.396	8.974	0.631	3.277	5.680	0.573

[1]	LI Ju, XIE Bojie, WEI Shouhui, ZHANG Guobin, WU Yue, TANG Zhongqi, XIAO Xuemei, YU Jihua. Effects of combined application of organic fertilizer and chemical fertilizer on nutritional quality and volatile compounds of cauliflower [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(7): 1199-1211.
[2]	YAO Zhao, WANG Chongyang, CUI Jing. Effect of nitrogen application amount on grain filling characteristics of winter wheat at different panicle positions under drip irrigation [J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(4): 576-585.
[3]	WANG Baojun, CHENG Wangda, CHEN Gui, SHEN Yaqiang, SHEN Meng, YUAN Ye, WANG Lei, ZHANG Hongmei. Effects of nitrogen fertilizer regulation on soil properties of paddy fields and rice yield with full amount returning of straw in Northern Zhejiang [J]. , 2020, 32(2): 183-190.
[4]	MA Peng, YANG Zhiyuan, LI Yu, LIN Dan, SUN Yongjian, MA Jun. Effects of nitrogen reduction in wheat/rape season and nitrogen fertilizer management in rice season on crop yield and nitrogen uptake in crop rotation system [J]. , 2019, 31(11): 1769-1778.
[5]	WU Chunyan, LIU Xiaoxia, CHEN Yi, LI Yan, TANG Xu, LU Ruohui. Dynamics of soil phosphorus in paddy-upland rotation paddy soil under different fertilization modes [J]. , 2019, 31(7): 1128-1137.
[6]	LUO Manli, LAN Qin, WANG Ge, WEI Hong, XIAO Jiujin, ZHANG Jian. Effect of fertilization on soil fauna community structure in farmland [J]. , 2019, 31(6): 946-954.
[7]	WANG Baojun, CHENG Wangda, CHEN Gui, SHEN Yaqiang, ZHANG Hongmei. Effect of straw returning and nitrogen reduction on soil nutrition, carbon pool and rice yield in rice field [J]. , 2019, 31(4): 624-630.
[8]	WANG Guiyue, SU Ting, HAN Hailiang, TAN Heping, BAO Fei, ZHAO Fucheng. Soil microbial community structure, labile organic carbon and nitrogen and enzyme activities in paddy field and upland affected by long-term fertilization systems [J]. , 2018, 30(5): 817-824.
[9]	LIU Quanfeng, LIU Yongzhen, CAO Jinfeng, YANG Zhenli, ZHAI Yuzhu, LAI Deqiang, SUN Yi, LIU Zhenzhen. Effects of controlled release nitrogen fertilizer on yield and nitrogen use efficiency of cotton in fluvo-aquic soil of Bohai Sea Ring Area [J]. , 2018, 30(2): 275-279.
[10]	HUANG Shengjia, YE Shuang, LIU Xinya, XI Lijuan, WANG Zhihui, FU Jialing. Effects of different fertilizes on phenolics of Huangguogan fruit [J]. , 2018, 30(1): 91-98.
[11]	LIU Fang, HAN Dan, ZHAO Mingqin, LI Xiaoyong, GUAN Chengwei. Effects of application of microbial agents along with humic acid potassium on tobacco-planted soil and economic benefit of flue-cured tobacco [J]. , 2017, 29(7): 1064-1069.