Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 441-454.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20221431
• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles
WANG Manman1(), SHEN Zhou1, GAO Qizheng2,*(
)
Received:
2022-10-04
Online:
2024-02-25
Published:
2024-03-05
CLC Number:
WANG Manman, SHEN Zhou, GAO Qizheng. Temporal and spatial changes of China’s agricultural total factor productivity based on the framework of input-output unity[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(2): 441-454.
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指标 Index | 描述 Description | 平均值 Average | 最大值 Maximum | 最小值 Minimum | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
产出 Output/(108 yuan) | 农林牧渔业总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery | 249.60 | 1 408.93 | 3.92 | 262.07 |
土地 Land/(104 hm2) | 农作物播种面积+本年采摘茶园面积+果园面积+瓜果类面积+ 林地面积+草地面积+水产品养殖面积 Crop sown area+tea garden area picked this year+orchard area+melon and fruit area+forest land area+grass land area+aquaculture area | 2 215.97 | 9 687.22 | 29.06 | 2095.22 |
劳动 Labor/104 | 第一产业劳动力数目 Primary industry practitioners | 651.51 | 1 292.00 | 37.09 | 374.77 |
资本 Capital/(108 yuan) | 农业资本存量 Agricultural capital stock | 196.66 | 2 316.79 | 2.08 | 266.28 |
中间投入 Intermediate input/ (108 yuan) | 农林牧渔业总产值-农林牧渔业增加值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery- added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery | 88.75 | 877.24 | 0.07 | 107.64 |
Table 1 Descriptive statistics of input and output indexes
指标 Index | 描述 Description | 平均值 Average | 最大值 Maximum | 最小值 Minimum | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
产出 Output/(108 yuan) | 农林牧渔业总产值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery | 249.60 | 1 408.93 | 3.92 | 262.07 |
土地 Land/(104 hm2) | 农作物播种面积+本年采摘茶园面积+果园面积+瓜果类面积+ 林地面积+草地面积+水产品养殖面积 Crop sown area+tea garden area picked this year+orchard area+melon and fruit area+forest land area+grass land area+aquaculture area | 2 215.97 | 9 687.22 | 29.06 | 2095.22 |
劳动 Labor/104 | 第一产业劳动力数目 Primary industry practitioners | 651.51 | 1 292.00 | 37.09 | 374.77 |
资本 Capital/(108 yuan) | 农业资本存量 Agricultural capital stock | 196.66 | 2 316.79 | 2.08 | 266.28 |
中间投入 Intermediate input/ (108 yuan) | 农林牧渔业总产值-农林牧渔业增加值 Total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery- added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery | 88.75 | 877.24 | 0.07 | 107.64 |
变量 Variable | 模型1 Model 1 | 模型 2 Model 2 | 模型3 Model 3 | 模型4 Model 4 | 模型5 Model 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
βt | 0.011 4 (0.36) | 0.026 4*** (24.74) | 0.028 2*** (28.39) | — | 0.011 4 (0.36) |
βK | -0.071 5 (-1.21) | 0.045 2*** (5.65) | -0.210 4*** (-4.79) | — | -0.071 5 (-1.21) |
βL | 0.243 0 (0.76) | 0.668 6*** (10.44) | 0.654 5** (2.28) | — | 0.243 0 (0.76) |
βN | 0.300 8** (2.17) | 0.085 3*** (3.63) | 0.468 9*** (3.54) | 0.629 0*** (6.73) | 0.300 8** (2.17) |
βM | 1.075 9*** (12.70) | 0.392 2*** (30.19) | 0.885 5*** (19.91) | 0.859 4*** (21.66) | 1.075 9*** (12.70) |
-0.000 2** (-2.59) | — | — | 0.000 3*** (3.80) | -0.000 2** (-2.59) | |
0.016 9** (2.52) | — | 0.013 7** (2.21) | 0.003 9 (1.29) | 0.016 9** (2.52) | |
0.057 1* (1.87) | — | 0.036 4 (1.26) | 0.076 3*** (6.30) | 0.057 1* (1.87) | |
0.030 9** (2.18) | — | 0.014 7 (1.13) | 0.003 1 (0.26) | 0.030 9** (2.18) | |
0.024 1* (1.92) | — | 0.030 9*** (5.51) | 0.014 6*** (5.59) | 0.024 1* (1.92) | |
βtK | -0.001 2 (-1.17) | — | — | — | -0.001 2 (-1.17) |
βtL | 0.001 2 (1.33) | — | — | — | 0.001 2 (1.33) |
βtN | 0.002 7* (1.87) | — | — | 0.002 2*** (4.36) | 0.002 7* (1.87) |
βtM | 0.001 4 (0.73) | — | — | — | 0.001 4 (0.73) |
βKL | 0.046 6*** (6.74) | — | 0.048 9*** (8.19) | 0.053 9** (11.52) | 0.046 6*** (6.74) |
βKN | -0.044 5*** (-3.85) | — | -0.022 7*** (-2.94) | -0.059 9 (-9.10) | -0.044 5*** (-3.85) |
βKM | -0.019 8 (-1.44) | — | -0.023 8** (-2.04) | — | -0.019 8 (-1.44) |
βLN | -0.046 1* (-1.92) | — | -0.058 5** (-2.45) | -0.048 4*** (-2.14) | -0.046 1* (-1.92) |
βLM | -0.082 0*** (-7.86) | — | -0.072 5*** (-11.35) | -0.079 9*** (-17.26) | -0.082 0*** (-7.86) |
βNM | -0.032 5 (-1.55) | — | -0.013 2 (-1.39) | — | -0.032 5 (-1.55) |
u | — | — | — | — | 0.046 6*** (6.01) |
η | — | — | — | — | 1.040 2*** (29.36) |
样本数Sample size | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 |
Table 2 Estimation results of test models
变量 Variable | 模型1 Model 1 | 模型 2 Model 2 | 模型3 Model 3 | 模型4 Model 4 | 模型5 Model 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
βt | 0.011 4 (0.36) | 0.026 4*** (24.74) | 0.028 2*** (28.39) | — | 0.011 4 (0.36) |
βK | -0.071 5 (-1.21) | 0.045 2*** (5.65) | -0.210 4*** (-4.79) | — | -0.071 5 (-1.21) |
βL | 0.243 0 (0.76) | 0.668 6*** (10.44) | 0.654 5** (2.28) | — | 0.243 0 (0.76) |
βN | 0.300 8** (2.17) | 0.085 3*** (3.63) | 0.468 9*** (3.54) | 0.629 0*** (6.73) | 0.300 8** (2.17) |
βM | 1.075 9*** (12.70) | 0.392 2*** (30.19) | 0.885 5*** (19.91) | 0.859 4*** (21.66) | 1.075 9*** (12.70) |
-0.000 2** (-2.59) | — | — | 0.000 3*** (3.80) | -0.000 2** (-2.59) | |
0.016 9** (2.52) | — | 0.013 7** (2.21) | 0.003 9 (1.29) | 0.016 9** (2.52) | |
0.057 1* (1.87) | — | 0.036 4 (1.26) | 0.076 3*** (6.30) | 0.057 1* (1.87) | |
0.030 9** (2.18) | — | 0.014 7 (1.13) | 0.003 1 (0.26) | 0.030 9** (2.18) | |
0.024 1* (1.92) | — | 0.030 9*** (5.51) | 0.014 6*** (5.59) | 0.024 1* (1.92) | |
βtK | -0.001 2 (-1.17) | — | — | — | -0.001 2 (-1.17) |
βtL | 0.001 2 (1.33) | — | — | — | 0.001 2 (1.33) |
βtN | 0.002 7* (1.87) | — | — | 0.002 2*** (4.36) | 0.002 7* (1.87) |
βtM | 0.001 4 (0.73) | — | — | — | 0.001 4 (0.73) |
βKL | 0.046 6*** (6.74) | — | 0.048 9*** (8.19) | 0.053 9** (11.52) | 0.046 6*** (6.74) |
βKN | -0.044 5*** (-3.85) | — | -0.022 7*** (-2.94) | -0.059 9 (-9.10) | -0.044 5*** (-3.85) |
βKM | -0.019 8 (-1.44) | — | -0.023 8** (-2.04) | — | -0.019 8 (-1.44) |
βLN | -0.046 1* (-1.92) | — | -0.058 5** (-2.45) | -0.048 4*** (-2.14) | -0.046 1* (-1.92) |
βLM | -0.082 0*** (-7.86) | — | -0.072 5*** (-11.35) | -0.079 9*** (-17.26) | -0.082 0*** (-7.86) |
βNM | -0.032 5 (-1.55) | — | -0.013 2 (-1.39) | — | -0.032 5 (-1.55) |
u | — | — | — | — | 0.046 6*** (6.01) |
η | — | — | — | — | 1.040 2*** (29.36) |
样本数Sample size | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 | 1 333 |
省份 Provincial-level regions | 1978—1985 | 1986—1990 | 1991—1995 | 1996—2000 | 2001—2005 | 2006—2010 | 2011—2015 | 2016—2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京Beijing | 1.009 | 0.994 | 0.993 | 1.019 | 1.014 | 1.080 | 1.029 | 1.017 |
福建Fujian | 0.995 | 0.995 | 1.000 | 1.071 | 1.049 | 1.026 | 1.030 | 1.008 |
广东Guangdong | 0.990 | 0.988 | 0.974 | 1.002 | 1.024 | 1.086 | 1.036 | 1.095 |
海南Hainan | 0.994 | 0.989 | 1.020 | 0.963 | 0.924 | 1.078 | 0.984 | 0.997 |
河北Hebei | 1.004 | 0.994 | 0.990 | 1.059 | 1.059 | 1.056 | 1.022 | 1.129 |
江苏Jiangsu | 0.991 | 0.984 | 0.991 | 1.048 | 1.078 | 1.073 | 1.080 | 1.161 |
辽宁Liaoning | 0.991 | 0.992 | 0.979 | 1.040 | 1.043 | 1.038 | 1.044 | 1.037 |
山东Shandong | 0.996 | 1.004 | 0.991 | 1.074 | 1.010 | 1.020 | 1.020 | 1.039 |
上海Shanghai | 1.021 | 1.017 | 1.010 | 1.049 | 1.052 | 1.049 | 1.072 | 1.080 |
天津Tianjin | 1.031 | 1.024 | 1.017 | 1.059 | 1.045 | 1.005 | 0.935 | 0.948 |
浙江Zhejiang | 0.990 | 0.989 | 0.996 | 1.043 | 0.976 | 0.986 | 1.004 | 1.023 |
吉林Jilin | 0.997 | 0.990 | 0.970 | 0.996 | 1.111 | 1.109 | 1.046 | 0.996 |
安徽Anhui | 1.000 | 1.006 | 1.023 | 1.056 | 1.034 | 1.041 | 1.044 | 1.096 |
内蒙古Inner Mongolia | 1.004 | 0.997 | 0.985 | 1.024 | 1.032 | 1.049 | 1.050 | 1.034 |
河南Henan | 1.000 | 0.998 | 0.994 | 1.053 | 1.033 | 1.000 | 1.023 | 0.999 |
黑龙江Heilongjiang | 1.006 | 1.007 | 0.993 | 1.052 | 1.035 | 1.024 | 1.042 | 1.046 |
湖北Hubei | 1.000 | 0.983 | 0.995 | 1.043 | 1.033 | 1.276 | 1.109 | 1.186 |
湖南Hunan | 0.977 | 0.962 | 1.008 | 1.017 | 1.008 | 1.048 | 1.071 | 1.079 |
江西Jiangxi | 1.005 | 0.990 | 1.003 | 1.033 | 1.025 | 1.032 | 1.032 | 1.017 |
山西Shanxi | 1.013 | 1.012 | 0.992 | 1.048 | 1.032 | 1.056 | 1.041 | 1.015 |
广西Guangxi | 0.999 | 0.988 | 0.984 | 1.022 | 1.020 | 1.029 | 1.042 | 1.079 |
甘肃Gansu | 1.000 | 1.004 | 0.966 | 1.045 | 1.029 | 1.009 | 1.052 | 1.048 |
贵州Guizhou | 1.010 | 1.007 | 1.000 | 1.026 | 1.020 | 1.014 | 1.005 | 1.093 |
宁夏Ningxia | 0.997 | 1.012 | 1.012 | 1.047 | 1.048 | 1.024 | 1.014 | 1.040 |
青海Qinghai | 1.007 | 1.010 | 1.005 | 1.033 | 1.020 | 1.027 | 1.020 | 1.061 |
陕西Shaanxi | 1.008 | 1.013 | 1.007 | 1.045 | 1.044 | 1.023 | 1.041 | 1.024 |
四川Sichuan | 0.990 | 0.987 | 0.984 | 1.036 | 0.995 | 1.021 | 1.012 | 1.089 |
西藏Xizang | 1.000 | 1.004 | 1.000 | 1.007 | 1.027 | 1.087 | 1.059 | 1.074 |
新疆Xinjiang | 0.989 | 1.002 | 0.994 | 1.071 | 1.048 | 1.023 | 1.035 | 1.018 |
云南Yunnan | 1.012 | 1.017 | 1.001 | 1.044 | 1.034 | 1.051 | 1.060 | 1.058 |
重庆Chongqing | 0.995 | 1.017 | 1.032 | 0.996 | 0.946 | 0.923 | 0.971 | 1.057 |
Table 3 Agricultural total factor productivity of provincial-level regions at different periods
省份 Provincial-level regions | 1978—1985 | 1986—1990 | 1991—1995 | 1996—2000 | 2001—2005 | 2006—2010 | 2011—2015 | 2016—2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京Beijing | 1.009 | 0.994 | 0.993 | 1.019 | 1.014 | 1.080 | 1.029 | 1.017 |
福建Fujian | 0.995 | 0.995 | 1.000 | 1.071 | 1.049 | 1.026 | 1.030 | 1.008 |
广东Guangdong | 0.990 | 0.988 | 0.974 | 1.002 | 1.024 | 1.086 | 1.036 | 1.095 |
海南Hainan | 0.994 | 0.989 | 1.020 | 0.963 | 0.924 | 1.078 | 0.984 | 0.997 |
河北Hebei | 1.004 | 0.994 | 0.990 | 1.059 | 1.059 | 1.056 | 1.022 | 1.129 |
江苏Jiangsu | 0.991 | 0.984 | 0.991 | 1.048 | 1.078 | 1.073 | 1.080 | 1.161 |
辽宁Liaoning | 0.991 | 0.992 | 0.979 | 1.040 | 1.043 | 1.038 | 1.044 | 1.037 |
山东Shandong | 0.996 | 1.004 | 0.991 | 1.074 | 1.010 | 1.020 | 1.020 | 1.039 |
上海Shanghai | 1.021 | 1.017 | 1.010 | 1.049 | 1.052 | 1.049 | 1.072 | 1.080 |
天津Tianjin | 1.031 | 1.024 | 1.017 | 1.059 | 1.045 | 1.005 | 0.935 | 0.948 |
浙江Zhejiang | 0.990 | 0.989 | 0.996 | 1.043 | 0.976 | 0.986 | 1.004 | 1.023 |
吉林Jilin | 0.997 | 0.990 | 0.970 | 0.996 | 1.111 | 1.109 | 1.046 | 0.996 |
安徽Anhui | 1.000 | 1.006 | 1.023 | 1.056 | 1.034 | 1.041 | 1.044 | 1.096 |
内蒙古Inner Mongolia | 1.004 | 0.997 | 0.985 | 1.024 | 1.032 | 1.049 | 1.050 | 1.034 |
河南Henan | 1.000 | 0.998 | 0.994 | 1.053 | 1.033 | 1.000 | 1.023 | 0.999 |
黑龙江Heilongjiang | 1.006 | 1.007 | 0.993 | 1.052 | 1.035 | 1.024 | 1.042 | 1.046 |
湖北Hubei | 1.000 | 0.983 | 0.995 | 1.043 | 1.033 | 1.276 | 1.109 | 1.186 |
湖南Hunan | 0.977 | 0.962 | 1.008 | 1.017 | 1.008 | 1.048 | 1.071 | 1.079 |
江西Jiangxi | 1.005 | 0.990 | 1.003 | 1.033 | 1.025 | 1.032 | 1.032 | 1.017 |
山西Shanxi | 1.013 | 1.012 | 0.992 | 1.048 | 1.032 | 1.056 | 1.041 | 1.015 |
广西Guangxi | 0.999 | 0.988 | 0.984 | 1.022 | 1.020 | 1.029 | 1.042 | 1.079 |
甘肃Gansu | 1.000 | 1.004 | 0.966 | 1.045 | 1.029 | 1.009 | 1.052 | 1.048 |
贵州Guizhou | 1.010 | 1.007 | 1.000 | 1.026 | 1.020 | 1.014 | 1.005 | 1.093 |
宁夏Ningxia | 0.997 | 1.012 | 1.012 | 1.047 | 1.048 | 1.024 | 1.014 | 1.040 |
青海Qinghai | 1.007 | 1.010 | 1.005 | 1.033 | 1.020 | 1.027 | 1.020 | 1.061 |
陕西Shaanxi | 1.008 | 1.013 | 1.007 | 1.045 | 1.044 | 1.023 | 1.041 | 1.024 |
四川Sichuan | 0.990 | 0.987 | 0.984 | 1.036 | 0.995 | 1.021 | 1.012 | 1.089 |
西藏Xizang | 1.000 | 1.004 | 1.000 | 1.007 | 1.027 | 1.087 | 1.059 | 1.074 |
新疆Xinjiang | 0.989 | 1.002 | 0.994 | 1.071 | 1.048 | 1.023 | 1.035 | 1.018 |
云南Yunnan | 1.012 | 1.017 | 1.001 | 1.044 | 1.034 | 1.051 | 1.060 | 1.058 |
重庆Chongqing | 0.995 | 1.017 | 1.032 | 0.996 | 0.946 | 0.923 | 0.971 | 1.057 |
时段 Period | TFP | TC | EC | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | 东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | 东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | |
1978—1985 | 1.001 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.003 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 0.998 | 0.998 | 0.998 |
1986—1990 | 0.997 | 0.994 | 1.006 | 1.001 | 0.997 | 1.009 | 0.997 | 0.997 | 0.996 |
1991—1995 | 0.997 | 0.996 | 0.999 | 1.002 | 1.001 | 1.004 | 0.994 | 0.995 | 0.994 |
1996—2000 | 1.039 | 1.036 | 1.034 | 1.049 | 1.043 | 1.045 | 0.990 | 0.993 | 0.990 |
2001—2005 | 1.025 | 1.038 | 1.021 | 1.046 | 1.050 | 1.044 | 0.977 | 0.989 | 0.977 |
2006—2010 | 1.045 | 1.071 | 1.021 | 1.093 | 1.089 | 1.055 | 0.960 | 0.982 | 0.967 |
2011—2015 | 1.023 | 1.051 | 1.028 | 1.098 | 1.107 | 1.084 | 0.935 | 0.950 | 0.949 |
2016—2020 | 1.048 | 1.052 | 1.058 | 1.129 | 1.131 | 1.144 | 0.933 | 0.934 | 0.928 |
1978—2020 | 1.022 | 1.030 | 1.021 | 1.053 | 1.053 | 1.048 | 0.973 | 0.980 | 0.975 |
Table 4 Agricultural total factor productivity, technical efficiency changes and technical changes in the east, central, and west regions from 1978 to 2020
时段 Period | TFP | TC | EC | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | 东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | 东部East | 中部Central | 西部West | |
1978—1985 | 1.001 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.003 | 1.002 | 1.002 | 0.998 | 0.998 | 0.998 |
1986—1990 | 0.997 | 0.994 | 1.006 | 1.001 | 0.997 | 1.009 | 0.997 | 0.997 | 0.996 |
1991—1995 | 0.997 | 0.996 | 0.999 | 1.002 | 1.001 | 1.004 | 0.994 | 0.995 | 0.994 |
1996—2000 | 1.039 | 1.036 | 1.034 | 1.049 | 1.043 | 1.045 | 0.990 | 0.993 | 0.990 |
2001—2005 | 1.025 | 1.038 | 1.021 | 1.046 | 1.050 | 1.044 | 0.977 | 0.989 | 0.977 |
2006—2010 | 1.045 | 1.071 | 1.021 | 1.093 | 1.089 | 1.055 | 0.960 | 0.982 | 0.967 |
2011—2015 | 1.023 | 1.051 | 1.028 | 1.098 | 1.107 | 1.084 | 0.935 | 0.950 | 0.949 |
2016—2020 | 1.048 | 1.052 | 1.058 | 1.129 | 1.131 | 1.144 | 0.933 | 0.934 | 0.928 |
1978—2020 | 1.022 | 1.030 | 1.021 | 1.053 | 1.053 | 1.048 | 0.973 | 0.980 | 0.975 |
Fig.2 δ-convergence of agricultural total factor productivity The east region consists of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan. The central region consists of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi. The west region consists of Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Xizang, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang.
区域 Region | α | β | 校正决定系数 Adjusted R2 |
---|---|---|---|
全国 Total | 0.022 6*** (16.97) | -0.000 1 (-0.07) | -0.034 3 |
东部 East | 0.010 5** (3.00) | -0.025 6** (-3.17) | 0.474 3 |
中部 Central | 0.024 0 (-0.88) | -0.001 2*** (16.68) | -0.025 8 |
西部 West | 0.025 2*** (10.31) | 0.001 9 (1.38) | 0.092 2 |
Table 5 Absolute β-convergence of agricultural total factor productivity
区域 Region | α | β | 校正决定系数 Adjusted R2 |
---|---|---|---|
全国 Total | 0.022 6*** (16.97) | -0.000 1 (-0.07) | -0.034 3 |
东部 East | 0.010 5** (3.00) | -0.025 6** (-3.17) | 0.474 3 |
中部 Central | 0.024 0 (-0.88) | -0.001 2*** (16.68) | -0.025 8 |
西部 West | 0.025 2*** (10.31) | 0.001 9 (1.38) | 0.092 2 |
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