Abstract: To understand the trends of grain production in Zhejiang Province, wave theory was adopted to study the grain output during 1978-2015, and LMDI approach was introduced to decompose the factors of cultivated land use which influenced grain production. It was shown that grain production in Zhejiang increased first, then reduced and was tended to be stable. The production fluctuation was narrowed, yet cyclical characteristics still existed. The increase of yield per hectare was the major factor to increase grain production, while the adjustment of planting structure, the reduction of multiple-crop index and cultivated land resources led to the decrease of grain production. The dominant factor to the grain production differed among cities. The decrease of multiple-crop index was the main factor for yield reduction in Taizhou, Shaoxing, Ningbo and Zhoushan, while the structure adjustment was the main factor for the rest cities.

Key words: grain production, cultivated land, Zhejiang Province