›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 1504-1512.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2018.09.09

• Horticultural Science • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Climatic suitability regionalization of Actinidia chinensis in China

WANG Rulin1, 2, LI Qing1, *, WANG Mingtian3   

  1. 1. College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China;
    2. Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, China;
    3. Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
  • Received:2017-11-02 Online:2018-09-25 Published:2018-10-15
  • Contact: 李庆,E-mail: liq8633@163.com
  • Supported by:
    国家现代农业产业体系四川水果创新团队项目(2013-2018); 四川省科研院所科技成果转化资金项目(15010107); 四川省三农气象服务专项

Abstract: Actinidia chinensis, originating in China, is a main cultivar in China, whose planting scale has been gradually rising in recent years. In this study, based on climatic factors and distribution records, MaxEnt(the maximum entropy model) was used to simulate the potential distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China and analyze the suitable bioclimatic characteristics of Actinidia chinensis. Response curves which indicated the relationships between climatic factors and the predicted probability of presence of Actinidia chinensis were drew up by MaxEnt, and correlation analysis was used to decrease the number of factors for the final distribution model, dominant factors were chosen in this paper by Jackknife test, while receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that, the AUC of high values referred to good results that significantly differed from random predictions. The accuracy of prediction of Actinidia chinensis in the current period was found to be “excellent” (AUCmean=0.960) according to the evaluation criterion. The predicted result of MaxEnt modeling was imported into ArcGIS10.0 for further analysis and it showed that, under the present climatic conditions, the potential suitable regions for Actinidia chinensis were mainly distributed from 25°N to 36°N in latitude, and from 101°E to 122°E in longitude. The highly suitable areas were in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and Gansu provinces, whereas the moderately suitable areas were in Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Shandong provinces. The important climatic factors affecting the distribution of Actinidia chinensis were mean temperature of driest quarter (bio11), maximum temperature in April (tmax4), minimum temperature in October (tmin10), mean temperature in May (tmean5), precipitation in May (pre5) and mean diurnal range (bio2). So the results may provide reference for Actinidia chinensis planting pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change impact in China.

Key words: Actinidia chinensis, MaxEnt, leading climatic factors, climatic suitability

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