Abstract: This paper analyzed the changes of supply and demand in China's mutton market, the partial equilibrium model was used to explore the main reasons and ARIMA model prediction method was used to predict the future changes. The research results showed that the demand for mutton market was mainly based on domestic market. The domestic supply and demand gap in 2017 was 742 800 t, about 3.82 times that of 1994. The gap tended to be widened. The previous period of stocks, production value and market price all significantly affected the domestic market supply. The per capita consumption and income level were important factors affecting the current per capita consumption of urban and rural residents. The international price had a significant positive impact on the domestic mutton export. In the future, China's mutton production will maintain a stable growth, and the consumption of mutton will further increase. It was expected to reach 8.4303×10⁶ t by year 2030, and the import of mutton will be greatly increased, which can make up the gap between domestic mutton supply and demand to a certain extent. Therefore, on one hand, it would be necessary to vigorously develop domestic mutton sheep industry through technology and policy.On the other hand, it would also be necessary to actively explore the international market and strengthen trade cooperation.

Key words: mutton market, supply and demand changes, trend forecast, partial equilibrium model