Potential geographical distribution of Cryptolestes turcicus (Grouville) in China based on MaxEnt model

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20240522

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 1107-1120.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20240522

• Plant Protection • Previous Articles Next Articles

Potential geographical distribution of Cryptolestes turcicus (Grouville) in China based on MaxEnt model

LI Tao¹^,²(), JIANG Haiyan¹, ZHANG Yuanpeng¹, ZHAO Qin¹, WU Fang¹^,^*(), ZHU Yanguang³, LI Dandan³, HE Yang⁴

1. Faculty of Quality Management and Inspection & Quarantine, Yibin University, Yibin 644000, Sichuan, China
2. College of Food Science, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya'an 625014, Sichuan, China
3. Sinograin Chengdu Storage Research Institute Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610091, China
4. Sinograin Chengdu Depot Co., Ltd., Chengdu 611400, China

Received:2024-06-18 Online:2025-05-25 Published:2025-06-11

Abstract

Abstract:

To predict and analyze the potential geographical distribution of Cryptolestes turcicus(Grouville) and investigate the impact of climatic environments on its distribution across different periods, based on the actual distribution data of C. turcicus and the environmental variables of the current period (1950—2000) and the future period (2021—2040 and 2041—2060) with 4 climate models (BCC_CSM2_MR, IPSL_CM6A_LR, MIROC6, MRI_ESM2_0) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585), this study used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution area of C. turcicus in China. The results indicated that the current most suitable area for C. turcicus reached to 66.35×10⁴ km², primarily covering most regions of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hubei provinces, as well as coastal areas of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The highly suitable area (116.53×10⁴ km²) was mainly distributed in western Heilongjiang, border regions of Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, southern Beijing, northern Hebei, southern Shanxi, central-southern Shaanxi, southwestern Henan, and northeastern Sichuan. Jackknife analysis identified the average minimum temperature in August (Tmin8), altitude, average precipitation in August (Prec8), and average precipitation in November (Prec11) as key factors influencing the C. turcicus distribution. High occurrence probability (>0.5) was observed under conditions of altitude 0-300 m, Tmin8 20-29 ℃, Prec8 100-550 mm, and Prec11 15-108 mm. Under different future climate scenarios, both highly suitable area and most suitable area are projected to expand.Compared with the current period, the average increases in total suitable area under the two shared socioeconomic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585) were 8.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Regions such as Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Guangdong, Fujian, western Inner Mongolia, eastern Sichuan, and western Chongqing are expected to show increased suitability levels. Additionally, the most suitable area may shift southward from Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu toward Hunan, Jiangxi, and Shanghai under future climate changes.

Key words: Cryptolestes turcicus, MaxEnt model, geographical distribution, climate change

CLC Number:

S433.5

LI Tao, JIANG Haiyan, ZHANG Yuanpeng, ZHAO Qin, WU Fang, ZHU Yanguang, LI Dandan, HE Yang. Potential geographical distribution of Cryptolestes turcicus (Grouville) in China based on MaxEnt model[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2025, 37(5): 1107-1120.

Figures/Tables 9

References 31

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环境因子代号 Code of environmrntal factor	环境因子含义 Description for environment factor	单位 Unit
Bio1	年平均气温Annual average temperature	℃
Bio2	平均气温日较差Mean daily temperature range	℃
Bio3	等温性Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数Seasonal variation coefficient of temperature
Bio5	最热月份最高温度Maximum temperature in the hottest month	℃
Bio6	最冷月份最低温度Minimum temperature in the coldest month	℃
Bio7	最冷月份最低温度差The minimum temperature difference in the coldest month	℃
Bio8	最湿季度平均温度Average temperature of the wettest quarter	℃
Bio9	最干季度平均温度Average temperature of the driest quarter	℃
Bio10	最暖季度平均温度Average temperature of the warmest quarter	℃
Bio11	最冷季度平均温度Average temperature of the coldest quarter	℃
Bio12	年降水量Annual precipitation	mm
Bio13	最湿月份降水量Precipitation in the wettest month	mm
Bio14	最干月份降水量Precipitation in the driest month	mm
Bio15	降水量季节性变化Seasonal variation of precipitation	mm
Bio16	最干季度降水量Precipitation in the driest quarter	mm
Bio17	最湿季度降水量Precipitation in the wettest quarter	mm
Bio18	最暖季度降水量Precipitation in the warmest quarter	mm
Bio19	最冷季度降水量Precipitation in the coldest quarter	mm
Prec1-12	1~12月平均降水量 Average precipitation from January to December	mm
Tmin1-12	1~12月平均最低温度 Average minimum temperature from January to December	℃
Tmax1-12	1~12月平均最高温度Average maximum temperature from January to December	℃
Altitude	海拔Altitude	m

环境因子代号 Code of environmrntal factor	环境因子含义 Description for environment factor	单位 Unit
Bio1	年平均气温Annual average temperature	℃
Bio2	平均气温日较差Mean daily temperature range	℃
Bio3	等温性Isothermality
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数Seasonal variation coefficient of temperature
Bio5	最热月份最高温度Maximum temperature in the hottest month	℃
Bio6	最冷月份最低温度Minimum temperature in the coldest month	℃
Bio7	最冷月份最低温度差The minimum temperature difference in the coldest month	℃
Bio8	最湿季度平均温度Average temperature of the wettest quarter	℃
Bio9	最干季度平均温度Average temperature of the driest quarter	℃
Bio10	最暖季度平均温度Average temperature of the warmest quarter	℃
Bio11	最冷季度平均温度Average temperature of the coldest quarter	℃
Bio12	年降水量Annual precipitation	mm
Bio13	最湿月份降水量Precipitation in the wettest month	mm
Bio14	最干月份降水量Precipitation in the driest month	mm
Bio15	降水量季节性变化Seasonal variation of precipitation	mm
Bio16	最干季度降水量Precipitation in the driest quarter	mm
Bio17	最湿季度降水量Precipitation in the wettest quarter	mm
Bio18	最暖季度降水量Precipitation in the warmest quarter	mm
Bio19	最冷季度降水量Precipitation in the coldest quarter	mm
Prec1-12	1~12月平均降水量 Average precipitation from January to December	mm
Tmin1-12	1~12月平均最低温度 Average minimum temperature from January to December	℃
Tmax1-12	1~12月平均最高温度Average maximum temperature from January to December	℃
Altitude	海拔Altitude	m

省级 Provincial level(number)	地市级 Municipal level	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude	省级 Provincial level(number)	地市级 Municipal level	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude
安徽 Anhui(5)	安庆Anqing	116.51	30.55	30	吉林Jilin(5)	白城Baicheng	122.80	45.66	160
	滁州Chuzhou	118.10	32.88	30		四平Siping	124.34	43.19	301
	阜阳Fuyang	116.26	32.65	20		松源Songyuan	124.82	45.15	180
	黄山Huangshan	118.60	29.74	122		延边Yanbian	129.14	43.17	190
	六安Lu'an	116.52	31.56	60		长春Changchun	125.31	43.86	276
福建 Fujian(5)	福州Fuzhou	119.30	26.14	10	湖南Hunan(2)	益阳Yiyang	112.37	28.58	81
	龙岩Longyan	117.02	25.08	329	湖南Hunan(2)	岳阳Yueyang	113.13	29.39	37
	南平Nanping	117.33	27.35	6	江西Jiangxi(3)	高安Gaoan	115.38	28.42	47
	厦门Xiamen	118.08	24.49	2		南昌Nanchang	115.84	28.72	16
	漳州Zhangzhou	117.65	24.54	19		萍乡Pingxiang	113.85	27.65	96
甘肃 Gansu(2)	陇南Longnan	105.27	33.25	1 688	江苏 Jiangsu(2)	连云港Lianyungang	119.12	34.84	20
甘肃 Gansu(2)	武威Wuwei	102.56	38.09	1 632	江苏 Jiangsu(2)	南通Nantong	119.12	32.07	20
广东 Guangdong(6)	东莞Dongguan	113.76	23.04	6	湖北 Hubei(6)	恩施Enshi	109.49	30.30	490
	惠州Huizhou	114.42	23.12	21		黄冈Huanggang	114.87	30.46	49
	茂名Maoming	110.93	21.70	30		荆门Jingmen	112.19	31.08	87
	梅州Meizhou	116.12	24.32	86		荆州Jingzhou	112.21	30.39	34
	汕头Shantou	116.68	23.37	8		武汉Wuhan	114.29	30.63	16
	阳江Yangjiang	111.98	21.91	4		襄阳Xiangyang	112.10	32.04	70
广西 Guangxi(2)	北海Beihai	109.13	21.49	21	四川 Sichuan(2)	成都Chengdu	104.08	30.66	500
广西 Guangxi(2)	南宁Nanning	108.37	22.82	79	四川 Sichuan(2)	西昌Xichang	102.27	27.90	1 590
贵州 Guizhou(3)	贵阳Guiyang	106.41	26.33	1 758	陕西 Shannxi(3)	宝鸡Baoji	107.24	34.37	618
	六盘水Liupanshui	104.84	26.60	1 797		商洛Shangluo	110.07	33.81	673
	遵义Zunyi	106.93	27.73	1 100		咸阳Xianyang	108.72	34.34	383
河北 Hebei(5)	承德Chengde	117.93	40.98	325	宁夏 Ningxia(3)	固原Guyuan	106.57	36.19	1 219
	邯郸Handan	114.51	36.65	55		吴忠Wuzhong	106.54	36.17	1 173
	秦皇岛Qinghuangdao	119.59	39.95	4		银川Yinchuan	106.24	38.49	1 200
	石家庄Shijiazhuang	114.47	38.07	82	新疆 Xijiang(2)	喀什Kashi	76.00	39.48	1 289
	张家口Zhangjiakou	114.86	40.79	716	新疆 Xijiang(2)	伊宁Yining	81.54	43.99	836
黑龙江 Heilongjiang(6)	哈尔滨Harbin	126.52	45.83	118	山东 Shandong(4)	济南Jinan	117.11	36.70	149
	黑河Heihe	127.54	50.25	122		聊城Liaocheng	115.99	36.50	37
	牡丹江Mudanjiang	129.63	44.56	234		青岛Qingdao	120.36	36.09	6
	齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	123.92	47.39	149		日照Rizhao	119.52	35.45	37
	双鸭山Shuangyashan	131.17	46.66	179	云南 Yunnan(2)	昆明Kunming	102.84	24.91	1930
	绥化Suihua	126.95	46.69	175	云南 Yunnan(2)	曲靖Qujing	103.78	25.54	1 874
北京Beijing(1)	北京Beijing	115.98	40.46	484	内蒙古 Inner Mongolia(4)	巴彦淖尔Bayannur	107.36	40.79	1 042
海南Hainan(1)	琼海Qionghai	110.20	20.04	18		鄂尔多斯Ordos	109.79	39.64	1 311
重庆Chongqing(1)	重庆Chongqing	106.06	29.85	444		呼和浩特Hohhot	111.76	40.89	1 072
浙江Zhejiang(1)	宁波Ningbo	121.56	29.89	10		锡林郭勒Xilin Gol League	116.12	43.93	987

省级 Provincial level(number)	地市级 Municipal level	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude	省级 Provincial level(number)	地市级 Municipal level	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	海拔 Altitude
安徽 Anhui(5)	安庆Anqing	116.51	30.55	30	吉林Jilin(5)	白城Baicheng	122.80	45.66	160
	滁州Chuzhou	118.10	32.88	30		四平Siping	124.34	43.19	301
	阜阳Fuyang	116.26	32.65	20		松源Songyuan	124.82	45.15	180
	黄山Huangshan	118.60	29.74	122		延边Yanbian	129.14	43.17	190
	六安Lu'an	116.52	31.56	60		长春Changchun	125.31	43.86	276
福建 Fujian(5)	福州Fuzhou	119.30	26.14	10	湖南Hunan(2)	益阳Yiyang	112.37	28.58	81
	龙岩Longyan	117.02	25.08	329	湖南Hunan(2)	岳阳Yueyang	113.13	29.39	37
	南平Nanping	117.33	27.35	6	江西Jiangxi(3)	高安Gaoan	115.38	28.42	47
	厦门Xiamen	118.08	24.49	2		南昌Nanchang	115.84	28.72	16
	漳州Zhangzhou	117.65	24.54	19		萍乡Pingxiang	113.85	27.65	96
甘肃 Gansu(2)	陇南Longnan	105.27	33.25	1 688	江苏 Jiangsu(2)	连云港Lianyungang	119.12	34.84	20
甘肃 Gansu(2)	武威Wuwei	102.56	38.09	1 632	江苏 Jiangsu(2)	南通Nantong	119.12	32.07	20
广东 Guangdong(6)	东莞Dongguan	113.76	23.04	6	湖北 Hubei(6)	恩施Enshi	109.49	30.30	490
	惠州Huizhou	114.42	23.12	21		黄冈Huanggang	114.87	30.46	49
	茂名Maoming	110.93	21.70	30		荆门Jingmen	112.19	31.08	87
	梅州Meizhou	116.12	24.32	86		荆州Jingzhou	112.21	30.39	34
	汕头Shantou	116.68	23.37	8		武汉Wuhan	114.29	30.63	16
	阳江Yangjiang	111.98	21.91	4		襄阳Xiangyang	112.10	32.04	70
广西 Guangxi(2)	北海Beihai	109.13	21.49	21	四川 Sichuan(2)	成都Chengdu	104.08	30.66	500
广西 Guangxi(2)	南宁Nanning	108.37	22.82	79	四川 Sichuan(2)	西昌Xichang	102.27	27.90	1 590
贵州 Guizhou(3)	贵阳Guiyang	106.41	26.33	1 758	陕西 Shannxi(3)	宝鸡Baoji	107.24	34.37	618
	六盘水Liupanshui	104.84	26.60	1 797		商洛Shangluo	110.07	33.81	673
	遵义Zunyi	106.93	27.73	1 100		咸阳Xianyang	108.72	34.34	383
河北 Hebei(5)	承德Chengde	117.93	40.98	325	宁夏 Ningxia(3)	固原Guyuan	106.57	36.19	1 219
	邯郸Handan	114.51	36.65	55		吴忠Wuzhong	106.54	36.17	1 173
	秦皇岛Qinghuangdao	119.59	39.95	4		银川Yinchuan	106.24	38.49	1 200
	石家庄Shijiazhuang	114.47	38.07	82	新疆 Xijiang(2)	喀什Kashi	76.00	39.48	1 289
	张家口Zhangjiakou	114.86	40.79	716	新疆 Xijiang(2)	伊宁Yining	81.54	43.99	836
黑龙江 Heilongjiang(6)	哈尔滨Harbin	126.52	45.83	118	山东 Shandong(4)	济南Jinan	117.11	36.70	149
	黑河Heihe	127.54	50.25	122		聊城Liaocheng	115.99	36.50	37
	牡丹江Mudanjiang	129.63	44.56	234		青岛Qingdao	120.36	36.09	6
	齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	123.92	47.39	149		日照Rizhao	119.52	35.45	37
	双鸭山Shuangyashan	131.17	46.66	179	云南 Yunnan(2)	昆明Kunming	102.84	24.91	1930
	绥化Suihua	126.95	46.69	175	云南 Yunnan(2)	曲靖Qujing	103.78	25.54	1 874
北京Beijing(1)	北京Beijing	115.98	40.46	484	内蒙古 Inner Mongolia(4)	巴彦淖尔Bayannur	107.36	40.79	1 042
海南Hainan(1)	琼海Qionghai	110.20	20.04	18		鄂尔多斯Ordos	109.79	39.64	1 311
重庆Chongqing(1)	重庆Chongqing	106.06	29.85	444		呼和浩特Hohhot	111.76	40.89	1 072
浙江Zhejiang(1)	宁波Ningbo	121.56	29.89	10		锡林郭勒Xilin Gol League	116.12	43.93	987

区域 Region	非适生区 Unsuitable area	低适生区 Marginally suitable area	中适生区 Moderate suitable area	高适生区 Highly suitable area	最佳适生区 Most suitable area
安徽Anhui	0.01	0.35	2.18	3.33	7.49
北京Beijing	0	0.01	0.09	1.45	0.19
福建Fujian	0.01	0.86	5.29	2.98	1.76
甘肃Gansu	25.63	6.78	7.95	2.92	0.33
广东Guangdong	0.03	0.79	4.89	4.67	5.16
广西Guangxi	0.18	1.89	9.00	5.84	4.01
贵州Guizhou	0.01	0.60	12.34	3.03	0
海南Hainan	0.02	1.16	0.97	0.27	0.46
河北Hebei	0.03	3.14	5.19	7.36	3.90
河南Henan	0	0	0.15	6.12	9.87
黑龙江Heilongjiang	16.15	16.84	16.92	4.41	0.07
湖北Hubei	0.01	1.18	3.16	6.24	6.97
湖南Hunan	0.02	1.90	10.58	5.09	1.79
吉林Jilin	0.29	10.71	5.55	4.60	0.14
江苏Jiangsu	0	0.80	2.31	2.31	4.30
江西Jiangxi	0.02	0.78	7.53	4.54	2.41
辽宁Liaoning	0	2.15	5.18	7.36	0.87
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	52.47	52.73	16.55	7.19	0.01
宁夏Ningxia	0	1.27	3.58	0.43	0
青海Qinghai	67.59	1.48	0.27	0.05	0
山东Shandong	0	0.06	0.62	4.14	10.54
山西Shanxi	0.68	6.42	5.66	3.06	0.16
陕西Shaanxi	0.02	3.12	6.38	9.61	1.23
上海Shanghai	0	0.01	0.10	0.15	0.34
四川Sichuan	21.57	5.33	7.36	8.80	2.68
天津Tianjin	0	0.05	0.59	0.55	0.01
西藏Xizang	107.89	4.35	1.81	0.05	0.08
新疆Xinjiang	142.44	30.35	2.07	0.14	0
云南Yunnan	2.51	10.74	16.07	4.65	0.32
浙江Zhejiang	0.02	1.58	3.39	3.39	1.03
重庆Chongqing	0.02	1.26	4.79	1.63	0
港澳台与其他Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and other	2.58	0.78	0.36	0.17	0.25
合计Total	440.21	169.44	168.87	116.53	66.35

Potential geographical distribution of Cryptolestes turcicus (Grouville) in China based on MaxEnt model

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变量 Variable	贡献率 Percent contribution/%	随机分布重要性 Permutation importance
Tmin8	34.6	30.5
Altitude	22.6	11.1
Prec8	10.5	9.9
Prec11	10.4	7.9
Prec5	6.3	13.0
Tmax9	6.0	5.6
Bio2	4.4	9.9
Bio4	2.8	7.4
Bio15	1.6	2.4
Bio3	0.8	2.3

气候模型 Climate model	共享社会经济路 Shared socio-economic pathway	时期 Period	AUC	面积Area/10104 km2					占比Ratio/%
气候模型 Climate model	共享社会经济路 Shared socio-economic pathway	时期 Period	AUC	非适生区 Unsuitable area	低适生区 Marginally suitable area	中适生区 Moderate suitable area	高适生区 Highly suitable area	最佳适生区 Most suitable area	非适生区 Unsuitable area	低适生区 Marginally suitable area	中适生区 Moderate suitable area	高适生区 Highly suitable area	最佳适生区 Most suitable area
BCC_CSM2_MR	SSP245	2021－－2040	0.888	439.59(−)	168.60(−)	162.89(−)	127.82	62.50(−)	45.7	17.5	16.9	13.3	6.5
	SSP245	2041－－2060	0.858	373.62(−)	186.93	173.81	143.53	83.51	38.9	19.4	18.1	14.9	8.7
	SSP585	2021－－2040	0.878	410.60(−)	139.43(−)	184.06	145.95	81.35	42.7	14.5	19.1	15.2	8.5
	SSP585	2041－－2060	0.881	414.27(−)	170.79	176.92	135.90	63.52(−)	43.1	17.8	18.4	14.1	6.6
IPSL_CM6A_LR	SSP245	2021－－2040	0.873	408.22(−)	160.54(−)	191.82	125.93	74.88	42.5	16.7	20.0	13.1	7.8
	SSP245	2041－－2060	0.875	409.05(−)	160.92(−)	175.25	139.89	76.28	42.5	16.7	18.2	14.6	7.9
	SSP585	2021－－2040	0.863	424.02(−)	142.43(−)	153.06(−)	132.32	109.58	44.1	14.8	15.9	13.8	11.4
	SSP585	2041－－2060	0.884	414.21(−)	165.44(−)	165.50(−)	140.23	76.02	43.1	17.2	17.2	14.6	7.9
MIROC6	SSP245	2021－－2040	0.851	400.60(−)	146.35(−)	183.63	152.73	78.08	41.7	15.2	19.1	15.9	8.1
	SSP245	2041－－2060	0.87	393.58(−)	185.75	168.39(−)	128.45	85.22	40.9	19.3	17.5	13.4	8.9
	SSP585	2021－－2040	0.879	430.46(−)	146.13(−)	163.13(−)	119.45	102.23	44.8	15.2	17.0	12.4	10.6
	SSP585	2041－－2060	0.878	440.14(−)	174.37	158.86(−)	91.93(−)	96.10	45.8	18.1	16.5	9.6	10.0
MRI_ESM2_0	SSP245	2021－－2040	0.865	403.25(−)	165.43(−)	191.48	124.10	77.14	41.9	17.2	19.9	12.9	8.0
	SSP245	2041－－2060	0.875	406.53(−)	169.61	182.63	121.67	80.96	42.3	17.6	19.0	12.7	8.4
	SSP585	2021－－2040	0.882	408.35(−)	160.42(−)	208.57	127.43	56.62(−)	42.5	16.7	21.7	13.3	5.9
	SSP585	2041－－2060	0.874	406.38(−)	173.13	157.14(−)	132.54	92.21	42.3	18.0	16.3	13.8	9.6

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