杨梅降水气象指数保险产品设计—以慈溪市为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2017.12.11

浙江农业学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (12): 2032-2037.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2017.12.11

杨梅降水气象指数保险产品设计—以慈溪市为例

丁烨毅^{1, 2}, 杨栋², 陈鑫磊³, 黄鹤楼², 罗小三^{1, *}

1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京 210044;
2.宁波市气象局,浙江宁波 315012;
3.中国太平洋财产保险公司宁波分公司,浙江宁波 315000

收稿日期:2017-05-17 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2018-01-08
通讯作者: 罗小三,E-mail:xsluo@nuist.edu.cn
作者简介:丁烨毅(1979—),男,浙江鄞州人,硕士,高级工程师,从事应用气象和农业气象研究。E-mail:nbqxt@qq.com
基金资助:
浙江省保险学会一般项目(2016086)

Design of products for precipitation meteorological index insurance of Myrica rubra—a case study of Cixi City

DING Yeyi^{1, 2}, YANG Dong², CHEN Xinlei³, HUANG Helou², LUO Xiaosan^{1, *}

1. School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
2. Ningbo Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315012, China;
3. Ningbo Branch of China Pacific Insurance Company, Ningbo 315000, China

Received:2017-05-17 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2018-01-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 选取杨梅采摘期易对产量造成影响的降水因子作为保险设计的气象致害指标,定义连续降水影响日数作为杨梅降水指数;经杨梅产量分离和去趋势化处理,分析1995—2015年产量损失率和降水指数的关系,建立杨梅产量灾损模型;利用长序列历史降水资料,选用韦伯分布模型计算不同等级降水指数的风险概率,设计不同赔付触发条件下的保险纯费率和杨梅降水气象指数保险产品,为杨梅农业保险可持续发展提供技术支撑。该指数保险产品具有可操作性,可为宁波地区杨梅降水保险业务提供参考,以便在降水灾害发生后客观、便捷地开展保险理赔工作。

关键词: 杨梅, 降水, 气象指数, 纯费率, 农业保险

Abstract: The number of continuous precipitation days in harvest period was employed to evaluate the meteorological damage, as precipitation has a significant effect on the yield of Myrica rubra. The yield damage model of Myrica rubra was established based on the relationship between yield loss rate and number of continuous precipitation days from 1995 to 2015. The yield loss rate was calculated by yield separation and de-trend processing. The risk probability of different grade precipitation index was calculated with Weber distribution model based on long sequence historical precipitation data. Reference to the disaster model and risk probability, the insurance products and pure insurance rate under different pay trigger conditions were designed to provide technical support for agricultural insurance's sustainable development. We propose that the index insurance products are operational, and can provide scientific reference for precipitation insurance business of Myrica rubra in Ningbo city.

Key words: Myrica rubra, precipitation, meteorological index, pure premium rate, agricultural insurance

中图分类号:

S-9
F840.66

丁烨毅, 杨栋, 陈鑫磊, 黄鹤楼, 罗小三. 杨梅降水气象指数保险产品设计—以慈溪市为例[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2017, 29(12): 2032-2037.

DING Yeyi, YANG Dong, CHEN Xinlei, HUANG Helou, LUO Xiaosan. Design of products for precipitation meteorological index insurance of Myrica rubra—a case study of Cixi City[J]. , 2017, 29(12): 2032-2037.

参考文献

[1] BARNETT B J, MAHUL O. Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 2007, 89(5):1241-1247.
[2] CHANTARAT S, BARRETT C B, MUDE A G, et al. Using weather index insurance to improve drought response for famine prevention[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics , 2007, 89(5):1262-1268.
[3] 娄伟平,吴利红,陈华江,等. 柑橘气象指数保险合同费率厘定分析及设计[J]. 中国农业科学,2010,43(9):1904-1911.
LOU W P, WU L H, CHEN H J, et al. Analysis and design of premium rates determined for weather-based index insurance contract of citrus[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica , 2010, 43(9):1904-1911.(in Chinese with English abstract)
[4] 陈盛伟,李彦. 区域性苹果低温冻害气象指数保险产品设计—以山东省栖霞市为例[J]. 保险研究,2015 (12):78-87.
CHEN S W, LI Y. Meteorological index insurance design for regional apple low temperature freezing disaster: With a case study of Qixia City in Shandong Province[J]. Insurance Studies , 2015 (12):78-87. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[5] 娄伟平,吉宗伟,邱新法,等. 茶叶霜冻气象指数保险设计[J]. 自然资源学报,2011,26(12):2050-2060.
LOU W P, JI Z W, QIU X F, et al. Design of weather index insurance contact for tea frost[J]. Journal of Natural Resources , 2011, 26(12):2050-2060. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[6] 王春乙,张亚杰,张京红,等. 海南省芒果寒害气象指数保险费率厘定及保险合同设计研究[J]. 气象与环境科学,2016,39(1):108-113.
WANG C Y, ZHANG Y J, ZHANG J H, et al. Determination of the premium rate based on the weather indices of chilling injury in mangoes and contract design in Hainan Province[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences , 2016, 39(1):108-113. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[7] 孙擎,杨再强,殷剑敏,等. 江西早稻高温逼熟气象灾害指数保险费率的厘定[J]. 中国农业气象,2014,35(5):561-566.
SUN Q, YANG Z Q, YIN J M, et al. Estimation of premium rates of high temperature disaster for early rice in Jiangxi[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology , 2014, 35(5):561-566. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[8] 匡昕,陈嵘徐. 油桃冻害气象指数保险设计[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2014, 26(6): 1660-1666.
KUANG X, CHEN R X. Design of weather-based index insurance contract for nectarine freezing[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis , 2014, 26(6): 1660-1666. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[9] 易沵泺,王季薇,王铸,等. 草原牧区雪灾天气指数保险设计—以内蒙古东部地区为例[J]. 保险研究,2015 (5):69-77.
YI M L, WANG J W, WANG Z, et al. Design of snow disaster weather-index insurance for pasture animal husbandry: A case study in eastern Inner Mongolia[J]. Insurance Studies ,2015 (5):69-77. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[10] 朱俊生. 中国天气指数保险试点的运行及其评估—以安徽省水稻干旱和高温热害指数保险为例[J]. 保险研究,2011 (3):19-25.
ZHU J S. The pilot operation of the weather index insurance and its appraisal: A case study with anhui rice drought and high temperature disaster index insurance[J]. Insurance Studies , 2011 (3):19-25. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[11] 吕洁. 杨梅之冠—慈溪杨梅[J]. 食品安全导刊,2013 (16):62.
LIU J. The crown of Myrica rubra-Myrica rubra in Cixi[J]. China Food Safety Magazine , 2013 (16):62. (in Chinese)
[12] 王建庆,冯秀丽,李加林,等. 滨海围垦平原区土壤质量时空演变及其影响因素分析—以浙江省慈溪市为例[J]. 水土保持通报,2013,33(5):219-224.
WANG J Q, FENG X L, LI J L, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and its impact factors of soil quality in coastal reclamation plains district—A case study of Cixi City, Zhejiang Province[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation , 2013, 33(5):219-224. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[13] 王媛,方修琦,徐锬. 气候变化背景下“气候产量”计算方法的探讨[J]. 自然资源学报,2004,19(4):531-536.
WANG Y, FANG X Q, XU T. A method for calculating the climatic yield of grain under climate change[J]. Journal of Natural Resources , 2004, 19(4):531-536. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[14] 邓国,王昂生,李世奎,等. 风险分析理论及方法在粮食生产中的应用初探[J]. 自然资源学报,2001,16(3):221-226.
DENG G, WANG A S, LI S K, et al. Risk theory and method and its initial application in grain yield[J]. Journal of Natural Resources , 2001, 16(3):221-226. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[15] 杨太明,刘布春,孙喜波,等. 安徽省冬小麦种植保险天气指数设计与应用[J]. 中国农业气象,2013 (2):229-235.
YANG T M, LIU B C, SUN X B, et al. Design and application of the weather indices of winter wheat planting insurance in Anhui Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology , 2013 (2):229-235. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[16] 苏布达,姜彤. 长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征[J]. 湖泊科学,2008,20(1):123-128.
SU B D, JIANG T. Distribution feature of time series of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Journal of Lake Sciences , 2008, 20(1):123-128. (in Chinese with English abstract)
[17] 于宁宁,陈盛伟. 天气指数保险国内外研究综述[J]. 山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009 (4):64-69.
YU N N, CHEN S W. Review of the studies on weather index insurance[J]. Journal of Shandong Agricultural University ( Social Science Edition ),2009 (4):64-69. (in Chinese)

杨梅降水气象指数保险产品设计—以慈溪市为例

Design of products for precipitation meteorological index insurance of Myrica rubra—a case study of Cixi City

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	田培, 赵慧宇, 刘之炜, 王娇, 狄珊珊, 徐浩, 汪志威, 王新全, 齐沛沛. 杨梅中灭蝇胺及其代谢物检测方法与风险评估[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(3): 534-540.
[2]	文长存, 孙玉竹. 农户对区域指数类农业附加险购买意愿的实证研究——以河北棉花种植户为例[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(2): 346-354.
[3]	马小华, 俞浙萍, 郑锡良, 胡晓金, 张淑文, 戚行江, 马靖艳. 靖州杨梅引种试验与表型聚类分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(11): 1987-1993.
[4]	张淑文, 梁森苗, 朱婷婷, 任海英, 郑锡良, 戚行江. 不同杨梅品种的耐低温能力比较[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(10): 1772-1779.
[5]	王程宽, 黄振东, 刘兴泉, 洪小玲. 气象因子对红美人柑橘品质的影响[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(10): 1798-1808.
[6]	林瑞, 任海英, 安笑笑, 郑锡良, 梁森苗, 张淑文, 戚行江. 生物有机肥对杨梅凋萎病防控及其树势恢复的影响[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2019, 31(7): 1096-1104.
[7]	郑晓雪, 秦丽杰. 不同降水年型吉林省中部玉米生产水足迹研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2019, 31(5): 695-703.
[8]	张波, 谷晓平, 古书鸿, 胡家敏. 贵州水稻有效降水量和需水量特征分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2019, 31(2): 191-199.
[9]	戴宝玲, 杨华, 戴贤君, 杨桂玲, 汪雯, 肖英平. 杨梅污染肺炎克雷伯氏菌的分离及其耐药特征和毒力基因[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(9): 1513-1518.
[10]	朱婷婷, 梁森苗, 张淑文, 郑锡良, 任海英, 戚行江. 早鲜杨梅果实发育和品质形成规律的研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(5): 764-770.
[11]	刘熔熔, 吴利红, 王增武. 浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(10): 1624-1629.
[12]	夏其乐, 曹艳, 陈剑兵, 韩延超, 刘瑞玲. 改善杨梅露酒色泽稳定性的研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(10): 1775-1781.
[13]	薛运宏, 刘箴, 刘继锋, 李学文, 尹周祥. 信阳地区冬小麦生育期水分供需及干旱特征[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2018, 30(1): 14-25.
[14]	吴阳春, 任海英, 戚行江, 郑锡良, 梁森苗. 云南新产区杨梅枝枯的病原菌鉴定及土壤营养元素分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2017, 29(2): 270-276.
[15]	梁森苗, 郭秀珠, 郑锡良, 张淑文, 温璐华, 黄品湖, 戚行江. 杨梅结果树各器官的矿质营养特性[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2017, 29(10): 1669-1677.