浙江农业学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 636-651.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2022.03.24
收稿日期:
2021-03-09
出版日期:
2022-03-25
发布日期:
2022-03-30
通讯作者:
夏春萍
作者简介:
夏春萍,E-mail: xcp@mail.hzau.edu.cn基金资助:
WANG Cuicui1(), XIA Chunping1,*(
), CAI Yi2
Received:
2021-03-09
Online:
2022-03-25
Published:
2022-03-30
Contact:
XIA Chunping
摘要:
从农户的发展能力、经济能力和社交能力3方面选取16个指标,运用组合赋权法确定指标权重,构建农户可持续生计评价指标体系,并基于此评估农业电商扶贫的成效。结合文献与实地调研获取的湖北省252份农户(含贫困户与脱贫户)调查数据,先对农户的可持续生计进行测度,然后运用OLS、2SLS、LIML、IVGMM和IV-Tobit共5种回归方法对农业电商扶贫中影响农户可持续生计的因素进行分析,并采用ISM模型分析论证了各影响因素的关联性质和层次结构。结果显示:样本农户的可持续生计水平一般,发展能力和经济能力相对较高,社交能力相对较弱,但这3种能力均未达到中等水平,有待提高。是否参与农业电商、亲戚中有无村干部、公共服务、政府支持和产业基础在农业电商扶贫中对农户的可持续生计具有显著(P<0.1)影响。是否参与农业电商和亲戚中有无村干部是表层直接影响因素,政府支持和产业基础是中层间接影响因素,公共服务是底层因素。因素之间的逻辑层次结构可用“单驱动、双路径”来概括。
中图分类号:
王翠翠, 夏春萍, 蔡轶. 农业电商扶贫可以提升农户的可持续生计吗?——基于农产品上行视角[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2022, 34(3): 636-651.
WANG Cuicui, XIA Chunping, CAI Yi. Can poverty alleviation through agricultural e-commerce improve smallholder’s sustainable livelihood?: from perspective of agricultural product sales[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2022, 34(3): 636-651.
图1 农业电商扶贫对农户可持续生计作用的分析框架
Fig.1 Analytical framework for effect of poverty alleviation through agricultural e-commerce on smallholder’s sustainable livelihood
评价目标 Evaluation objective | 一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 三级指标 Third level indicators | 含义与测算方法 Meanings and measurements |
---|---|---|---|---|
A:农户可持 续生计 Sustainable livelihood of smallholder | B1:发展能力 Development capacity (0.323) | C1:人力资本 Human capital (0.323) | D1:家中学历最高者学历 Highest education(0.164) | 1,小学以下;2,小学;3,初中;4,高中/中专;5,大专及以上 1, Under primary; 2, Primary; 3, Junior middle; 4, Senior middle;5, Junior college or above |
D2:家庭人数 Household size(0.020) | 家庭总人口数 Total household size | |||
D3:家庭电商劳动力评估 E-commerce labor force evaluation(0.117) | 经赋值计算加总得来 Based on the summation of assignment | |||
D4:家庭成员健康情况 Health(0.022) | 1,存在大病;2,健康较差;3,一般;4,基本健康;5,全员健康 1, Serious illness; 2, Poor; 3, Average; 4, Good; 5, All family members keep healthy | |||
B2:经济能力 Economic capacity(0.110) | C2:自然资本 Natural capital (0.029) | D5:耕地面积 Cultivated area(0.017) | 家庭总耕地面积 Cultivated area/hm2 | |
D6:耕地质量 Cultivated land quality (0.007) | 1,下等;2,中下等;3,一般;4,中上等;5,上等 1, Inferior; 2, Below average; 3, Average; 4, Middle class; 5, Superior | |||
D7:灌溉条件 Irrigation(0.006) | 1,不便利;2,比较不便利;3,一般;4,比较便利;5,非常便利 1, Inconvenient; 2, Not convenient; 3, Average; 4, Convenient; 5, Very convenient | |||
C3:物质资本 Physical capital(0.019) | D8:住房面积 Living area(0.004) | 家庭住房面积/hm2 Family housing area/hm2 | ||
D9:住房结构 Housing structure(0.002)* | 1,混凝土;2,混砖;3,砖木;4,土木 1, Concrete; 2, Mixed brick; 3, Brick and wood; 4, Civil engineering | |||
D10:互联网设备条件 Internet appliances(0.007) | 手机、电脑和网络配备情况:1,无配备;2,配备不足;3,一般;4,比较齐全;5,非常齐全 The equipment of mobile phones, computers and network: 1, No equipment; 2, Insufficient; 3, Average; 4, Complete; 5, Very complete | |||
评价目标 Evaluation objective | 一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 三级指标 Third level indicators | 含义与测算方法 Meanings and measurements |
D11:农业生产经营条件 Agricultural production and management(0.006) | 农用机械和农用运输车辆配备情况:1,无配备;2,配备不足;3,一般;4,比较齐全;5,非常齐全 The equipment of agricultural machinery and agricultural transport vehicles: 1, No equipment; 2, Insufficient; 3, Average; 4, Complete; 5, Very complete | |||
C4:金融资本 Financial capital (0.061) | D12:家庭纯收入 Family net income(0.035) | 家庭前一年纯收入 Net income of family in previous year/104 yuan | ||
D13:借贷款途径 Loan channels(0.027) | 0,无;1,民间或银行;2,两种渠道都有 0, No;1, Private loans or bank loans; 2, Both | |||
B3:社交能力 Social capacity (0.567) | C5:社会资本 Social capital (0.567) | D14:专业生产组织参与情况 Enrollment in cooperative (0.312) | 是否加入农民专业合作社:1,是;0,否 Whether to join farmers’ professional cooperatives: 1, Yes; 0, No | |
D15:电商组织参与情况 Enrollment in e-commerce organization(0.169) | 是否加入电商协会:1,是,0,否 Whether to join the Internet business association: 1, Yes; 0, No | |||
D16:信任程度 Trust(0.086) | 对电商技术推广员、村干部、邻里高学历人士、赚钱能手的信任程度 The degree of trust in e-commerce technology promoters, village cadres, highly educated neighbors, and money-making experts |
表1 农户可持续生计评价体系及其各级指标的含义、测算方法与权重
Table 1 Meanings, measurements and weights of indexes for smallholder’s sustainable livelihood evaluation
评价目标 Evaluation objective | 一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 三级指标 Third level indicators | 含义与测算方法 Meanings and measurements |
---|---|---|---|---|
A:农户可持 续生计 Sustainable livelihood of smallholder | B1:发展能力 Development capacity (0.323) | C1:人力资本 Human capital (0.323) | D1:家中学历最高者学历 Highest education(0.164) | 1,小学以下;2,小学;3,初中;4,高中/中专;5,大专及以上 1, Under primary; 2, Primary; 3, Junior middle; 4, Senior middle;5, Junior college or above |
D2:家庭人数 Household size(0.020) | 家庭总人口数 Total household size | |||
D3:家庭电商劳动力评估 E-commerce labor force evaluation(0.117) | 经赋值计算加总得来 Based on the summation of assignment | |||
D4:家庭成员健康情况 Health(0.022) | 1,存在大病;2,健康较差;3,一般;4,基本健康;5,全员健康 1, Serious illness; 2, Poor; 3, Average; 4, Good; 5, All family members keep healthy | |||
B2:经济能力 Economic capacity(0.110) | C2:自然资本 Natural capital (0.029) | D5:耕地面积 Cultivated area(0.017) | 家庭总耕地面积 Cultivated area/hm2 | |
D6:耕地质量 Cultivated land quality (0.007) | 1,下等;2,中下等;3,一般;4,中上等;5,上等 1, Inferior; 2, Below average; 3, Average; 4, Middle class; 5, Superior | |||
D7:灌溉条件 Irrigation(0.006) | 1,不便利;2,比较不便利;3,一般;4,比较便利;5,非常便利 1, Inconvenient; 2, Not convenient; 3, Average; 4, Convenient; 5, Very convenient | |||
C3:物质资本 Physical capital(0.019) | D8:住房面积 Living area(0.004) | 家庭住房面积/hm2 Family housing area/hm2 | ||
D9:住房结构 Housing structure(0.002)* | 1,混凝土;2,混砖;3,砖木;4,土木 1, Concrete; 2, Mixed brick; 3, Brick and wood; 4, Civil engineering | |||
D10:互联网设备条件 Internet appliances(0.007) | 手机、电脑和网络配备情况:1,无配备;2,配备不足;3,一般;4,比较齐全;5,非常齐全 The equipment of mobile phones, computers and network: 1, No equipment; 2, Insufficient; 3, Average; 4, Complete; 5, Very complete | |||
评价目标 Evaluation objective | 一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 三级指标 Third level indicators | 含义与测算方法 Meanings and measurements |
D11:农业生产经营条件 Agricultural production and management(0.006) | 农用机械和农用运输车辆配备情况:1,无配备;2,配备不足;3,一般;4,比较齐全;5,非常齐全 The equipment of agricultural machinery and agricultural transport vehicles: 1, No equipment; 2, Insufficient; 3, Average; 4, Complete; 5, Very complete | |||
C4:金融资本 Financial capital (0.061) | D12:家庭纯收入 Family net income(0.035) | 家庭前一年纯收入 Net income of family in previous year/104 yuan | ||
D13:借贷款途径 Loan channels(0.027) | 0,无;1,民间或银行;2,两种渠道都有 0, No;1, Private loans or bank loans; 2, Both | |||
B3:社交能力 Social capacity (0.567) | C5:社会资本 Social capital (0.567) | D14:专业生产组织参与情况 Enrollment in cooperative (0.312) | 是否加入农民专业合作社:1,是;0,否 Whether to join farmers’ professional cooperatives: 1, Yes; 0, No | |
D15:电商组织参与情况 Enrollment in e-commerce organization(0.169) | 是否加入电商协会:1,是,0,否 Whether to join the Internet business association: 1, Yes; 0, No | |||
D16:信任程度 Trust(0.086) | 对电商技术推广员、村干部、邻里高学历人士、赚钱能手的信任程度 The degree of trust in e-commerce technology promoters, village cadres, highly educated neighbors, and money-making experts |
一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 指标含义和测算 Meanings and measurements | 权重 Weight | 均值 Mean | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
公共服务 Public service | 农村电商服务站覆盖情况 Coverage of rural e-commerce service station | 村内是否有农村电商服务站:1,是;0,否 Is there a rural e-commerce service station in village: Yes, 1; No, 0 | 0.825 | 0.583 | 0.494 |
快递物流便利程度 Convenience of logistics | 1,无分布;2,只有一个;3,均匀分布;4,零星分布;5,集中分布 1, None; 2, Only one; 3, Evenly distributed; 4, Sporadic distribution; 5, Centralized distribution | 0.127 | 3.100 | 0.999 | |
田地距路口距离 Distance of field to road* | 1,<0.5 km;2,0.5~1 km;3,1~2 km;4,2~5 km;5,≥5 km | 0.048 | 1.798 | 0.867 | |
政府支持 Government support | 政府对电商经营主体的补贴程度 Government’s subsidies to e-commerce operators | 1,没有补贴;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, A few subsidies; 3, Average; 4, Relatively large subsidy; 5, Large subsidy | 0.456 | 2.468 | 1.084 |
政府对电商的宣传程度 Government’s publicity on e-commerce | 1,没有宣传;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, Less publicity; 3, Average; 4, Relatively large publicity; 5, Great publicity | 0.195 | 2.425 | 0.965 | |
政府对电商创业的支持力度 Government’s support for e-commerce entrepreneurship | 1,没有;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, Less support; 3, Average; 4, Relatively strong support; 5, Strong support | 0.349 | 2.325 | 0.974 | |
电商氛围 E-commerce atmosphere | 亲戚朋友参与网络购物和销售 Participation in online shopping and sales among relatives | 1,没听说;2,较少;3,一般;4,较多;5,很多 1, None; 2, Less; 3, Medium; 4, Relatively large; 5, Large | 0.360 | 2.865 | 1.021 |
村民中有人进行网络购物或销售 Participation in online shopping and sales among villagers | 1,没听说;2,较少;3,一般;4,较多;5,很多 1, None; 2, Less; 3, Medium; 4, Relatively large; 5, Large | 0.438 | 2.806 | 0.981 | |
治安环境 Public security | 1,非常差,2,较差,3,一般,4,较好,5,很好 1, Very bad; 2, Relatively bad; 3, General; 4, Good; 5, Very good | 0.202 | 3.270 | 0.957 | |
产业基础 Industrial base | 区域知名企业 Local well-known enterprises | 您对本地知名企业的看法:1,不了解;2,认为其带动能力较弱;3,一般;4,有几个企业且有带动效应;5,数量很多且带动效应强 Your opinion on local well-known businesses: 1, Not known at all; 2, Weak driving effect; 3, General; 4, Several enterprises and some driving effect; 5, Many enterprises and strong driving effect | 0.525 | 1.917 | 0.993 |
区域知名品牌或产品 Local famous brand or product | 您对本地知名品牌或产品的看法:1,不了解;2,认为其效益较弱;3,一般;4,有一定效益;5,知名度高,效益好 Your opinion on local famous brand or product: 1, Not known at all; 2, Weak benefit; 3, General; 4, Some benefit; 5, Well-known and high benefit | 0.475 | 2.008 | 0.994 |
表2 外部环境变量对应的二级指标的含义、测算方法、权重和统计量
Table 2 Meanings, measurements, weights and statistics of secondary indicators of external environment variables
一级指标 First level indicators | 二级指标 Second level indicators | 指标含义和测算 Meanings and measurements | 权重 Weight | 均值 Mean | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
公共服务 Public service | 农村电商服务站覆盖情况 Coverage of rural e-commerce service station | 村内是否有农村电商服务站:1,是;0,否 Is there a rural e-commerce service station in village: Yes, 1; No, 0 | 0.825 | 0.583 | 0.494 |
快递物流便利程度 Convenience of logistics | 1,无分布;2,只有一个;3,均匀分布;4,零星分布;5,集中分布 1, None; 2, Only one; 3, Evenly distributed; 4, Sporadic distribution; 5, Centralized distribution | 0.127 | 3.100 | 0.999 | |
田地距路口距离 Distance of field to road* | 1,<0.5 km;2,0.5~1 km;3,1~2 km;4,2~5 km;5,≥5 km | 0.048 | 1.798 | 0.867 | |
政府支持 Government support | 政府对电商经营主体的补贴程度 Government’s subsidies to e-commerce operators | 1,没有补贴;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, A few subsidies; 3, Average; 4, Relatively large subsidy; 5, Large subsidy | 0.456 | 2.468 | 1.084 |
政府对电商的宣传程度 Government’s publicity on e-commerce | 1,没有宣传;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, Less publicity; 3, Average; 4, Relatively large publicity; 5, Great publicity | 0.195 | 2.425 | 0.965 | |
政府对电商创业的支持力度 Government’s support for e-commerce entrepreneurship | 1,没有;2,不大;3,一般;4,较大;5,力度很大 1, None; 2, Less support; 3, Average; 4, Relatively strong support; 5, Strong support | 0.349 | 2.325 | 0.974 | |
电商氛围 E-commerce atmosphere | 亲戚朋友参与网络购物和销售 Participation in online shopping and sales among relatives | 1,没听说;2,较少;3,一般;4,较多;5,很多 1, None; 2, Less; 3, Medium; 4, Relatively large; 5, Large | 0.360 | 2.865 | 1.021 |
村民中有人进行网络购物或销售 Participation in online shopping and sales among villagers | 1,没听说;2,较少;3,一般;4,较多;5,很多 1, None; 2, Less; 3, Medium; 4, Relatively large; 5, Large | 0.438 | 2.806 | 0.981 | |
治安环境 Public security | 1,非常差,2,较差,3,一般,4,较好,5,很好 1, Very bad; 2, Relatively bad; 3, General; 4, Good; 5, Very good | 0.202 | 3.270 | 0.957 | |
产业基础 Industrial base | 区域知名企业 Local well-known enterprises | 您对本地知名企业的看法:1,不了解;2,认为其带动能力较弱;3,一般;4,有几个企业且有带动效应;5,数量很多且带动效应强 Your opinion on local well-known businesses: 1, Not known at all; 2, Weak driving effect; 3, General; 4, Several enterprises and some driving effect; 5, Many enterprises and strong driving effect | 0.525 | 1.917 | 0.993 |
区域知名品牌或产品 Local famous brand or product | 您对本地知名品牌或产品的看法:1,不了解;2,认为其效益较弱;3,一般;4,有一定效益;5,知名度高,效益好 Your opinion on local famous brand or product: 1, Not known at all; 2, Weak benefit; 3, General; 4, Some benefit; 5, Well-known and high benefit | 0.475 | 2.008 | 0.994 |
变量 Variable | 最小值 Minimum | 最大值 Maximum | 平均值 Mean | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Y:农户可持续生计Sustainable livelihood of smallholder | 0.067 | 0.946 | 0.338 | 0.190 |
X1:是否参与农业电商(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.361 | 0.481 |
Whether to participate in agricultural e-commerce (1, Participated; 0, Not participated) | ||||
X2:公共服务Public service | 0 | 1 | 0.535 | 0.403 |
X3:政府支持Government support | 0 | 0.932 | 0.368 | 0.221 |
X4:电商氛围E-commerce atmosphere | 0.061 | 0.941 | 0.443 | 0.239 |
X5:产业基础Industrial base | 0 | 0.883 | 0.253 | 0.240 |
X6:户主电商意识E-commerce awareness | 0 | 0.922 | 0.471 | 0.263 |
X7:户主年龄Age* | 20(0) | 61(1) | 43.710(0.431) | 9.886(0.240) |
X8:户主健康(1,很差;2,较差;3,一般;4,良好;5,优秀) | 2(0) | 5(1) | 3.976(0.659) | 0.906(0.302) |
Health (1, Very poor; 2, Poor; 3, Average; 4, Good; 5, Very good) | ||||
X9:户主学历(1,小学及以下;2,初中;3,高中/中专;4,大专及以上) | 1(0) | 4(1) | 2.202(0.401) | 0.995(0.332) |
Education (1, Primary school and below; 2, Junior middle; 3, Senior middle; 4, Junior college or above) | ||||
X10:亲戚中有无村干部(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.083 | 0.277 |
Are there any village cadres among relatives (1, Yes; 0, No) | ||||
X11:是否参与电商培训(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.183 | 0.387 |
Participation in e-commerce training (1, Participated; 0, Not participated) | ||||
X12:农业电商销售的便捷性(1,便捷;0,不便捷) | 0 | 1 | 0.325 | 0.470 |
Convenience of agricultural e-commerce sales(1, Convenient; 0, Inconvenient) |
表3 变量的描述性统计
Table 3 Descriptive statistics of variables
变量 Variable | 最小值 Minimum | 最大值 Maximum | 平均值 Mean | 标准差 Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Y:农户可持续生计Sustainable livelihood of smallholder | 0.067 | 0.946 | 0.338 | 0.190 |
X1:是否参与农业电商(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.361 | 0.481 |
Whether to participate in agricultural e-commerce (1, Participated; 0, Not participated) | ||||
X2:公共服务Public service | 0 | 1 | 0.535 | 0.403 |
X3:政府支持Government support | 0 | 0.932 | 0.368 | 0.221 |
X4:电商氛围E-commerce atmosphere | 0.061 | 0.941 | 0.443 | 0.239 |
X5:产业基础Industrial base | 0 | 0.883 | 0.253 | 0.240 |
X6:户主电商意识E-commerce awareness | 0 | 0.922 | 0.471 | 0.263 |
X7:户主年龄Age* | 20(0) | 61(1) | 43.710(0.431) | 9.886(0.240) |
X8:户主健康(1,很差;2,较差;3,一般;4,良好;5,优秀) | 2(0) | 5(1) | 3.976(0.659) | 0.906(0.302) |
Health (1, Very poor; 2, Poor; 3, Average; 4, Good; 5, Very good) | ||||
X9:户主学历(1,小学及以下;2,初中;3,高中/中专;4,大专及以上) | 1(0) | 4(1) | 2.202(0.401) | 0.995(0.332) |
Education (1, Primary school and below; 2, Junior middle; 3, Senior middle; 4, Junior college or above) | ||||
X10:亲戚中有无村干部(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.083 | 0.277 |
Are there any village cadres among relatives (1, Yes; 0, No) | ||||
X11:是否参与电商培训(1,是;0,否) | 0 | 1 | 0.183 | 0.387 |
Participation in e-commerce training (1, Participated; 0, Not participated) | ||||
X12:农业电商销售的便捷性(1,便捷;0,不便捷) | 0 | 1 | 0.325 | 0.470 |
Convenience of agricultural e-commerce sales(1, Convenient; 0, Inconvenient) |
指标 Index | 可持续生计 Sustainable livelihood | 发展能力 Development capacity | 经济能力 Economic capacity | 社交能力 Social capacity |
---|---|---|---|---|
均值Mean | 0.338 | 0.416 | 0.504 | 0.261 |
极大值Maximum | 0.946 | 0.955 | 0.855 | 1.000 |
极小值Minimum | 0.067 | 0.029 | 0.096 | 0 |
标准差Standard deviation | 0.190 | 0.233 | 0.150 | 0.285 |
表4 样本农户可持续生计及其各项能力的描述性统计分析
Table 4 Descriptive statistics on sustainable livelihood and according capacities of sample smallholders
指标 Index | 可持续生计 Sustainable livelihood | 发展能力 Development capacity | 经济能力 Economic capacity | 社交能力 Social capacity |
---|---|---|---|---|
均值Mean | 0.338 | 0.416 | 0.504 | 0.261 |
极大值Maximum | 0.946 | 0.955 | 0.855 | 1.000 |
极小值Minimum | 0.067 | 0.029 | 0.096 | 0 |
标准差Standard deviation | 0.190 | 0.233 | 0.150 | 0.285 |
样本组别 Category | 可持续生计 Sustainable livelihood | 发展能力 Development capacity | 经济能力 Economic capacity | 社交能力 Social capacity |
---|---|---|---|---|
未参与组Not participated | 0.244 | 0.366 | 0.481 | 0.129 |
参与组Participated | 0.503 | 0.503 | 0.544 | 0.495 |
表5 是否参与农业电商对农户可持续生计及其能力的影响
Table 5 Effect of smallholder’s participation in agricultural e-commerce on sustainable livelihood and according capacities
样本组别 Category | 可持续生计 Sustainable livelihood | 发展能力 Development capacity | 经济能力 Economic capacity | 社交能力 Social capacity |
---|---|---|---|---|
未参与组Not participated | 0.244 | 0.366 | 0.481 | 0.129 |
参与组Participated | 0.503 | 0.503 | 0.544 | 0.495 |
变量 Variable | 模型1 Model 1 | 模型2 Model 2 | 模型3 Model 3 | 模型4 Model 4 | 模型5 Model 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | 0.066**(0.026) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.058) |
X2 | 0.046**(0.020) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.022) |
X3 | 0.215***(0.054) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) |
X4 | 0.115**(0.050) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.049) |
X5 | 0.124***(0.034) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.041) |
X6 | 0.042(0.036) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.038) |
X7 | -0.032(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) |
X8 | 0.042*(0.023) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) |
X9 | 0.046(0.030) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.030) |
X10 | 0.062**(0.028) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.028) |
X11 | 0.052**(0.025) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.027) |
常数项Constant | 0.061**(0.031) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.034) |
表6 实证分析结果
Table 6 Result of empirical analysis
变量 Variable | 模型1 Model 1 | 模型2 Model 2 | 模型3 Model 3 | 模型4 Model 4 | 模型5 Model 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | 0.066**(0.026) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.063) | 0.162***(0.058) |
X2 | 0.046**(0.020) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.021) | 0.041*(0.022) |
X3 | 0.215***(0.054) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) | 0.152**(0.071) |
X4 | 0.115**(0.050) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.056) | 0.072(0.049) |
X5 | 0.124***(0.034) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.038) | 0.098**(0.041) |
X6 | 0.042(0.036) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.037) | 0.027(0.038) |
X7 | -0.032(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) | -0.035(0.034) |
X8 | 0.042*(0.023) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) | 0.035(0.025) |
X9 | 0.046(0.030) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.032) | 0.051(0.030) |
X10 | 0.062**(0.028) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.030) | 0.062**(0.028) |
X11 | 0.052**(0.025) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.028) | 0.026(0.027) |
常数项Constant | 0.061**(0.031) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.037) | 0.094**(0.034) |
变量 Variable | 脱贫户Out-of-poor smallholders | 贫困户Poor smallholders | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS | ||
X1 | -0.012(0.031) | 0.137*(0.077) | -0.009(0.026) | 0.206*(0.124) | |
X2 | 0.042(0.028) | 0.031(0.031) | 0.138***(0.032) | 0.096**(0.048) | |
X3 | 0.214***(0.071) | 0.148*(0.079) | 0.139**(0.057) | 0.029(0.084) | |
X4 | 0.036(0.068) | 0.004(0.069) | 0.083(0.068) | 0.022(0.080) | |
X5 | 0.187***(0.042) | 0.156***(0.045) | 0.107***(0.032) | 0.101**(0.042) | |
X6 | 0.147***(0.045) | 0.101*(0.054) | 0.075*(0.042) | 0.015(0.061) | |
X7 | 0.048(0.049) | 0.069(0.054) | 0.004(0.037) | 0.025(0.057) | |
X8 | 0.033(0.030) | 0.011(0.034) | 0.036(0.024) | 0.018(0.033) | |
X9 | 0.017(0.039) | 0.007(0.043) | 0.024(0.030) | 0.031(0.043) | |
X10 | 0.029(0.037) | 0.025(0.047) | 0.017(0.024) | 0.019(0.048) | |
X11 | 0.080*(0.041) | 0.023(0.047) | 0.096**(0.037) | 0.025(0.063) | |
常数项Constant | 0.053(0.033) | 0.094**(0.042) | 0.060**(0.029) | 0.110**(0.044) |
表7 贫困户与脱贫户的可持续生计回归结果对比分析
Table 7 Comparative analysis on regression result of sustainable livelihood of out-of-poor smallholders and poor smallholders
变量 Variable | 脱贫户Out-of-poor smallholders | 贫困户Poor smallholders | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | 2SLS | OLS | 2SLS | ||
X1 | -0.012(0.031) | 0.137*(0.077) | -0.009(0.026) | 0.206*(0.124) | |
X2 | 0.042(0.028) | 0.031(0.031) | 0.138***(0.032) | 0.096**(0.048) | |
X3 | 0.214***(0.071) | 0.148*(0.079) | 0.139**(0.057) | 0.029(0.084) | |
X4 | 0.036(0.068) | 0.004(0.069) | 0.083(0.068) | 0.022(0.080) | |
X5 | 0.187***(0.042) | 0.156***(0.045) | 0.107***(0.032) | 0.101**(0.042) | |
X6 | 0.147***(0.045) | 0.101*(0.054) | 0.075*(0.042) | 0.015(0.061) | |
X7 | 0.048(0.049) | 0.069(0.054) | 0.004(0.037) | 0.025(0.057) | |
X8 | 0.033(0.030) | 0.011(0.034) | 0.036(0.024) | 0.018(0.033) | |
X9 | 0.017(0.039) | 0.007(0.043) | 0.024(0.030) | 0.031(0.043) | |
X10 | 0.029(0.037) | 0.025(0.047) | 0.017(0.024) | 0.019(0.048) | |
X11 | 0.080*(0.041) | 0.023(0.047) | 0.096**(0.037) | 0.025(0.063) | |
常数项Constant | 0.053(0.033) | 0.094**(0.042) | 0.060**(0.029) | 0.110**(0.044) |
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