劳动力老龄化、耕地细碎化必然导致水稻生产成本增加吗?——基于鄂东南地区的微观调查

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2023.05.25

浙江农业学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 1211-1222.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2023.05.25

劳动力老龄化、耕地细碎化必然导致水稻生产成本增加吗?——基于鄂东南地区的微观调查

张超正¹(), 张旭鹏², 陈丹玲³^,^*()

1.西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌 712100
2.中国地质大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉 430074
3.华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉 430070

收稿日期:2022-05-23 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2023-06-01
作者简介:张超正(1993—),男,湖南郴州人,博士,讲师,主要从事土地经济与管理研究。E-mail: weirdozcz@163.com
通讯作者: *陈丹玲,E-mail: hustcdl@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42101307);国家自然科学基金(42101263);陕西省社会科学基金(2021R023);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JQ-747)

Does labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation increase rice production cost?: based on microscopic investigation in southeast Hubei Province, China

ZHANG Chaozheng¹(), ZHANG Xupeng², CHEN Danling³^,^*()

1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China
2. School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
3. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China

Received:2022-05-23 Online:2023-05-25 Published:2023-06-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于鄂东南地区755份水稻种植户数据,采用多元线性回归模型检验劳动力老龄化和耕地细碎化对水稻生产成本的影响。结果表明:劳动力老龄化显著增加了水稻生产中的单位产量总成本,具体到分项成本,劳动力老龄化显著增加了肥料、农药和人工成本,但也显著降低了种子成本,抑制了机械投入。耕地细碎化显著提高了水稻生产中的单位产量总成本,具体到单项成本,耕地细碎化显著提高了种子、肥料、农药和人工成本,显著限制了机械使用。劳动力老龄化、耕地细碎化对水稻生产中单位产量总成本及其分项成本的影响受制于地貌类型。通过替换被解释变量和解释变量开展稳健性检验,证实估计结果是稳健的。在劳动力老龄化和耕地细碎化的双重背景下,降低水稻生产成本在农业供给侧结构性改革中别具现实意义。建议应提升农机服务的可获得性,加快耕地适度规模经营进程,提高耕地整治与流转的耦合程度。

关键词: 劳动力老龄化, 耕地细碎化, 水稻生产, 生产成本, 地貌类型

Abstract:

Based on the survey data collected from 755 rice farmers in southeast Hubei Province, China, the impacts of labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation on rice production cost were examined by using multiple linear regression model. The results indicate that the labor force aging significantly increases the total cost per unit output during rice production. Specifically, labor force aging obviously increases the cost of fertilizers, pesticides and labor, but significantly reduces the cost of seeds and hinders the use of machinery. Cultivated land fragmentation evidently increases the total cost per unit output. Specifically, cultivated land fragmentation obviously increases the cost of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and labor, but significantly restricts the input of machinery. The effects of labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation on the total cost and its sub-costs of rice production are restricted by geomorphic types. By replacing explained and explanatory variables, the robustness tests results confirm that the main estimation results are considerably robust. Under the dual background of labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation, reducing the cost of rice production is of particular practical significance in agricultural supply-side structure reform. Therefore, it is suggested to improve the availability of agricultural machinery services, promote the process of appropriate scale operation of cultivated land, and increase the coupling degree of cultivated land consolidation and transfer.

Key words: labor force aging, cultivated land fragmentation, rice production, production cost, geomorphic type

中图分类号:

S-09
F321

张超正, 张旭鹏, 陈丹玲. 劳动力老龄化、耕地细碎化必然导致水稻生产成本增加吗?——基于鄂东南地区的微观调查[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2023, 35(5): 1211-1222.

ZHANG Chaozheng, ZHANG Xupeng, CHEN Danling. Does labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation increase rice production cost?: based on microscopic investigation in southeast Hubei Province, China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2023, 35(5): 1211-1222.

图/表 6

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变量 Variable	定义 Definition	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min	最大值 Max
(C_T)总成本 Total cost	全部成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of total cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	1.841	0.642	0.617	6.077
(C_S)种子成本 Seed cost	种子成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of seed cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.195	0.083	0.040	0.600
(C_F)肥料成本 Fertilizer cost	肥料成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of fertilizer cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.290	0.088	0.077	0.667
(C_P)农药成本 Pesticide cost	农药成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of pesticide cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.129	0.064	0	0.400
(C_M)机械成本 Mechanical cost	机械成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of mechanical cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.452	0.240	0	1.280
(C_L)人工成本 Labor cost	人工成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of labor cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.753	0.516	0.097	5.052
(C_O)其他成本 Other cost	其他成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of other cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.022	0.046	0	0.444
(A)劳动力老龄化 Labor force aging	家庭农业劳动力平均年龄 Average age of agricultural labor force in family	56.269	8.301	29	80
(C)耕地细碎化 Cultivated land fragmentation	耕地细碎化综合指数 Comprehensive index of cultivated land fragmentation	0.381	0.083	0	0.670
(X₁)耕地质量等级 Land quality grade	很低,1;较低,2;中等,3;较高,4;很高,5 Lowest, 1; Lower, 2; Medium, 3; Higher, 4; Highest, 5	3.220	0.869	1	5
(X₂)水稻种植规模 Rice plating scale	水稻实际种植面积 Rice planting scale/hm²	0.392	0.563	0.027	6.667
(X₃)水稻收入占比 Rice income proportion	水稻种植净收入的绝对值与家庭总收入的比值 Ratio of rice income to total income	0.149	0.381	0.001	7.127
(X₄)稻谷商品化率 Rice commercialization rate	稻谷出售量与总产量的比值 Ratio of rice sales to total output	0.321	0.360	0	0.981
(X₅)家庭人均收入 Per capita income	家庭总收入与总人口比值的自然对数值Natural logarithmic value of ratio of total income to total population in family	9.188	1.132	2.625	11.993
(X₆)区域经济特征 Regional economic characteristic	通山县,1;崇阳县,2;咸安区,3;江夏区,4 Tongshan County, 1; Chongyang County, 2; Xian’an District, 3; Jiangxia District, 4	2.267	1.050	1	4

变量 Variable	定义 Definition	平均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation	最小值 Min	最大值 Max
(C_T)总成本 Total cost	全部成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of total cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	1.841	0.642	0.617	6.077
(C_S)种子成本 Seed cost	种子成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of seed cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.195	0.083	0.040	0.600
(C_F)肥料成本 Fertilizer cost	肥料成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of fertilizer cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.290	0.088	0.077	0.667
(C_P)农药成本 Pesticide cost	农药成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of pesticide cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.129	0.064	0	0.400
(C_M)机械成本 Mechanical cost	机械成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of mechanical cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.452	0.240	0	1.280
(C_L)人工成本 Labor cost	人工成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of labor cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.753	0.516	0.097	5.052
(C_O)其他成本 Other cost	其他成本与总产量的比值 Ratio of other cost to total output/(yuan·kg^-1)	0.022	0.046	0	0.444
(A)劳动力老龄化 Labor force aging	家庭农业劳动力平均年龄 Average age of agricultural labor force in family	56.269	8.301	29	80
(C)耕地细碎化 Cultivated land fragmentation	耕地细碎化综合指数 Comprehensive index of cultivated land fragmentation	0.381	0.083	0	0.670
(X₁)耕地质量等级 Land quality grade	很低,1;较低,2;中等,3;较高,4;很高,5 Lowest, 1; Lower, 2; Medium, 3; Higher, 4; Highest, 5	3.220	0.869	1	5
(X₂)水稻种植规模 Rice plating scale	水稻实际种植面积 Rice planting scale/hm²	0.392	0.563	0.027	6.667
(X₃)水稻收入占比 Rice income proportion	水稻种植净收入的绝对值与家庭总收入的比值 Ratio of rice income to total income	0.149	0.381	0.001	7.127
(X₄)稻谷商品化率 Rice commercialization rate	稻谷出售量与总产量的比值 Ratio of rice sales to total output	0.321	0.360	0	0.981
(X₅)家庭人均收入 Per capita income	家庭总收入与总人口比值的自然对数值Natural logarithmic value of ratio of total income to total population in family	9.188	1.132	2.625	11.993
(X₆)区域经济特征 Regional economic characteristic	通山县,1;崇阳县,2;咸安区,3;江夏区,4 Tongshan County, 1; Chongyang County, 2; Xian’an District, 3; Jiangxia District, 4	2.267	1.050	1	4

变量Variable	C_T	C_S	C_F	C_P	C_M	C_L	C_O
A	0.013 2^*** (5.24)	-0.001 0^*** (-3.25)	0.001 8^*** (5.77)	0.001 1^*** (4.09)	-0.003 7^*** (-3.66)	0.015 0^*** (6.92)	0.000 1 (0.54)
C	1.335 3^*** (6.31)	0.225 8^*** (6.14)	0.328 0^*** (9.64)	0.173 7^*** (7.18)	-0.477 6^*** (-4.77)	1.068 1^*** (6.39)	0.017 2 (0.81)
X₁	-0.044 0^** (-2.17)	-0.002 7 (-0.84)	-0.018 6^*** (-7.13)	-0.007 3^*** (-2.94)	0.005 1 (0.54)	-0.020 5 (-1.37)	-0.000 1 (-0.05)
X₂	-0.091 7^** (-1.99)	0.005 9 (0.94)	-0.013 5^** (-2.42)	0.002 3 (0.44)	0.013 5 (0.83)	-0.098 7^*** (-2.87)	-0.001 2 (-0.44)
X₃	-1.052 9^*** (-7.54)	-0.106 2^*** (-4.24)	-0.799 0^*** (-6.68)	-0.060 0^*** (-3.68)	-0.366 1^*** (-5.73)	-0.419 0^*** (-4.37)	-0.021 7 (-1.62)
X₄	-0.489 8^*** (-7.96)	0.008 4 (0.87)	-0.000 2 (-0.02)	0.026 4^*** (3.20)	0.019 0 (0.70)	-0.552 7^*** (-12.51)	0.009 3 (1.54)
X₅	-0.168 6^*** (-5.11)	-0.015 9^*** (-3.01)	-0.013 1^*** (-279)	-0.007 5^** (-2.18)	-0.057 3^*** (-3.97)	-0.072 2^*** (-2.87)	-0.002 7 (-0.96)
X₆	-0.005 8 (-0.30)	-0.005 9^** (-1.98)	-0.006 3^** (-2.01)	0.005 9^** (2.43)	-0.019 4^** (-2.12)	0.017 0 (1.12)	0.002 9^* (1.81)
常数项 Constant	2.617 6^*** (7.70)	0.342 5^*** (6.26)	0.276 7^*** (5.53)	0.078 6^** (2.06)	1.438 6^*** (9.67)	0.454 9^* (1.75)	0.026 2 (0.97)
F	55.13^***	11.17^***	36.37^***	15.75^***	17.33^***	60.15^***	1.47
R²	0.338 7	0.098 5	0.238 4	0.125 2	0.114 1	0.351 4	0.012 5

变量Variable	C_T	C_S	C_F	C_P	C_M	C_L	C_O
A	0.013 2^*** (5.24)	-0.001 0^*** (-3.25)	0.001 8^*** (5.77)	0.001 1^*** (4.09)	-0.003 7^*** (-3.66)	0.015 0^*** (6.92)	0.000 1 (0.54)
C	1.335 3^*** (6.31)	0.225 8^*** (6.14)	0.328 0^*** (9.64)	0.173 7^*** (7.18)	-0.477 6^*** (-4.77)	1.068 1^*** (6.39)	0.017 2 (0.81)
X₁	-0.044 0^** (-2.17)	-0.002 7 (-0.84)	-0.018 6^*** (-7.13)	-0.007 3^*** (-2.94)	0.005 1 (0.54)	-0.020 5 (-1.37)	-0.000 1 (-0.05)
X₂	-0.091 7^** (-1.99)	0.005 9 (0.94)	-0.013 5^** (-2.42)	0.002 3 (0.44)	0.013 5 (0.83)	-0.098 7^*** (-2.87)	-0.001 2 (-0.44)
X₃	-1.052 9^*** (-7.54)	-0.106 2^*** (-4.24)	-0.799 0^*** (-6.68)	-0.060 0^*** (-3.68)	-0.366 1^*** (-5.73)	-0.419 0^*** (-4.37)	-0.021 7 (-1.62)
X₄	-0.489 8^*** (-7.96)	0.008 4 (0.87)	-0.000 2 (-0.02)	0.026 4^*** (3.20)	0.019 0 (0.70)	-0.552 7^*** (-12.51)	0.009 3 (1.54)
X₅	-0.168 6^*** (-5.11)	-0.015 9^*** (-3.01)	-0.013 1^*** (-279)	-0.007 5^** (-2.18)	-0.057 3^*** (-3.97)	-0.072 2^*** (-2.87)	-0.002 7 (-0.96)
X₆	-0.005 8 (-0.30)	-0.005 9^** (-1.98)	-0.006 3^** (-2.01)	0.005 9^** (2.43)	-0.019 4^** (-2.12)	0.017 0 (1.12)	0.002 9^* (1.81)
常数项 Constant	2.617 6^*** (7.70)	0.342 5^*** (6.26)	0.276 7^*** (5.53)	0.078 6^** (2.06)	1.438 6^*** (9.67)	0.454 9^* (1.75)	0.026 2 (0.97)
F	55.13^***	11.17^***	36.37^***	15.75^***	17.33^***	60.15^***	1.47
R²	0.338 7	0.098 5	0.238 4	0.125 2	0.114 1	0.351 4	0.012 5

地貌类型 Geomorphic type	变量 Variable	C_T	C_S	C_F	C_P	C_M	C_L	C_O
岗地平原 Hill and plain	A	0.010 8^*** (3.82)	-0.000 9^** (-2.23)	0.001 9^*** (4.46)	0.000 7^** (2.22)	-0.002 9^** (-2.36)	0.012 1^*** (5.86)	-0.000 1 (-0.16)
	C	0.922 8^*** (4.19)	0.137 7^*** (3.31)	0.227 8^*** (6.02)	0.105 0^*** (3.97)	-0.352 3^*** (-3.40)	0.799 9^*** (5.35)	0.004 6 (0.17)
低山丘陵 Low mountains and hills	A	0.018 0^*** (3.95)	-0.001 0^** (-2.20)	0.001 7^*** (3.91)	0.001 8^*** (4.22)	-0.004 7^*** (-2.74)	0.019 8^*** (4.62)	0.000 4 (1.01)
	C	2.812 2^*** (7.11)	0.416 9^*** (6.42)	0.549 2^*** (9.19)	0.312 9^*** (7.55)	-0.784 5^*** (-3.90)	2.271 6^*** (7.07)	0.046 1 (1.23)

劳动力老龄化、耕地细碎化必然导致水稻生产成本增加吗?——基于鄂东南地区的微观调查

Does labor force aging and cultivated land fragmentation increase rice production cost?: based on microscopic investigation in southeast Hubei Province, China

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变量Variable	C'_T	C'_S	C'_f	C'_P	C'_M	C'_L	C'_O
A	0.005 5^*** (5.42)	-0.000 4^*** (-2.84)	0.000 8^*** (5.92)	0.000 4^*** (4.22)	-0.001 4^*** (-3.52)	0.006 1^*** (7.02)	0.000 1 (0.56)
C	0.571 6^*** (6.59)	0.093 4^*** (6.20)	0.137 8^*** (9.86)	0.074 3^*** (7.36)	-0.190 0^*** (-4.68)	0.449 4^*** (6.68)	0.006 7 (0.77)

变量Variable	C_T	C_S	C_F	C_P	C_M	C_L	C_O
L'	0.253 5^*** (5.89)	-0.014 4^** (-2.40)	0.034 0^*** (5.48)	0.017 2^*** (3.71)	-0.049 4^*** (-2.71)	0.259 4^*** (7.34)	0.066^* (1.65)
a	-2.985 8^*** (-7.06)	-0.159 5^** (-2.53)	-0.309 1^*** (-6.02)	-0.168 5^** (-4.49)	0.344 7^** (2.39)	-2.675 7^*** (-7.57)	-0.017 7 (-0.59)
L'	0.272 2^*** (6.12)	-0.013 5^** (-2.28)	0.035 6^*** (5.87)	0.018 0^** (3.93)	-0.051 1^*** (-2.81)	0.276 6^*** (7.47)	0.006 7^* (1.67)
n	0.019 5^*** (3.09)	0.004 1^*** (3.61)	0.007 1^*** (6.48)	0.004 6^*** (5.77)	-0.008 3^*** (-3.03)	0.011 4^*** (2.64)	0.000 5 (0.76)
L'	0.276 8^*** (6.27)	-0.012 2^*** (-2.11)	0.037 4^*** (6.19)	0.018 9^** (4.11)	-0.054 0^*** (-3.00)	0.280 1^*** (7.66)	0.006 7^* (1.68)
d	0.149 3^*** (3.17)	0.044 5^*** (6.09)	0.056 3^*** (7.27)	0.025 6^*** (4.64)	-0.101 7^*** (-4.46)	0.122 4^*** (3.00)	0.002 3 (0.45)

[1]	成威松, 郑粟文, 高华洁, 白云丽, 叶春辉. 劳动力老龄化会使农户顺利流转农地吗?[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2022, 34(7): 1545-1557.
[2]	周腰华, 李蔚青, 张淼, 潘荣光, 邹剑秋. 中国高粱贸易与美国高粱生产成本收益分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2017, 29(9): 1589-1594.