浙江农业学报

• 农业经济与发展 • 上一篇    

1999—2014年山东省粮食生产变化及增产驱动力研究

  

  1. (贵州大学 管理学院,贵州 贵阳 550025)
  • 出版日期:2016-03-25 发布日期:2016-04-07

Changes and driving force of grain production in Shandong Province during 1999-2014

  1. (College of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, China)
  • Online:2016-03-25 Published:2016-04-07

摘要: 文章以1999—2014年的统计数据为基础,分析了山东省近15年来粮食总产、单产和粮食种植结构3方面的变化。结果显示:从粮食总产来看,山东省粮食总产的变化呈现出先下降后上升的趋势。从粮食单产来看,山东省粮食平均单产总体呈现出稳定增长趋势,特别是2002年之后增幅明显,其中,豆类作物增幅最大,其次是薯类,再次为小麦,玉米增幅最小。从粮食种植结构来看,2002—2006年山东省粮食作物种植结构调整较大,但玉米和小麦仍是山东省播种面积最大的两种粮食作物。短期内,小麦作为“第一主粮”的基础性地位难以撼动;薯类和豆类播种面积近年来显著下降,而其他粮食作物播种面积比重变化不大。总体来看,山东省粮食增产主要依赖于单产的提高。上述研究结果可为国家粮食主产区制定合理的粮食生产规划和农业经济政策提供科学依据。

关键词: 粮食主产区, 山东省, 种植结构, 粮食产量, 驱动力

Abstract: Based on the statistical data of 1999-2014, the changes of yield and planting structure of grain production in Shandong Province were analyzed. It was shown that the grain production in Shandong Province exhibited an increasing trend after fall first. The average grain yield per unit in Shandong Province exhibited an overall trend of steady growth, and the increase was particularly obvious after 2002. Specifically, the increase of legume crops was the highest, and was followed by potato, wheat, and corn. The planting structure has experienced major adjustment in 2002-2006. But, the planting area of corn and wheat were still the two largest in Shandong Province. In the short term, the fundamental status of wheat in planting structure was impossible to shake. The planting area of potato and legume crops decreased significantly in recent years. However, the proportion of other food crops in planting area kept stable. In general, the increase of total grain yield in Shandong Province mainly depended on the rise of unit yield. These results would provide references for the making of agricultural production planning and agricultural economic policy in national major grain production areas.

Key words: major grain production area, Shandong Province, planting structure, grain yield, driving force