关键词: 白玉兰, 始花期, 气象因子, 相关关系, 多元线性回归

Abstract: Based on the first-lowering dates of Magnolia denudata during 2000 to 2012 and its meteological datas in Jinhua city， the relationships between first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata and meteorological factors. The results showed that: （1） The annual fluctuation of first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata was bigger in Jinhua city， its earliest date was on Feb 12th and the latest date was on Mar 21st. （2）Principal climate factors that influenced the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata were rainy days and sunshine hours in last February， sunshine hours and mean temperature in January， sunshine hours and mean temperature in February and negative accumulated temperature in January. （3） The prediction model of the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata was established by multiple linear regression based on the principal meteological factors， which could predict the first-flowering dates of Magnolia denudata with good practical applicability.

Key words: Magnolia denudata, first-flowering date, meteological factor, correlation, multiple linear regression