农业保险保障水平与农业收入的“倒U型”关系——基于农业产业融合视角

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230213

浙江农业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 225-234.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230213

• 农业经济与发展 • 上一篇

农业保险保障水平与农业收入的“倒U型”关系——基于农业产业融合视角

魏超¹(), 陈盛伟²^,^*(), 牛浩¹, 李政¹

1.山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安 271018
2.山东理工大学经济学院,山东淄博 255000

收稿日期:2023-02-22 出版日期:2024-01-25 发布日期:2024-02-18
作者简介:魏超(1997—),男,山东昌乐人,博士研究生,研究方向为农业保险。E-mail:18853859250@163.com
通讯作者: * 陈盛伟,E-mail:chensw@sdau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(71773067);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(71803103)

An “inverted U-shaped” relationship between agricultural insurance coverage level and agricultural income: from perspective of agricultural industry integration

WEI Chao¹(), CHEN Shengwei²^,^*(), NIU Hao¹, LI Zheng¹

1. School of Economics and Management, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, Shandong, China
2. School of Economics, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255000, Shandong, China

Received:2023-02-22 Online:2024-01-25 Published:2024-02-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2008—2020年中国除港澳台藏外30个省份的面板数据,利用固定效应模型、Ⅳ-2SLS法等工具,探讨农业保险保障水平对农业收入的影响效果及机制路径。研究发现,农业保险保障水平与农业收入间存在显著且稳健的“倒U型”关系,拐点值为农业保险保障水平等于83.09%。农业产业融合在农业保险保障水平促进农业增收的机制中发挥了部分中介效应,中介效应占比为82.24%。据此建议加快农险产品创新和保险责任扩充,推动农业保险“增品、提标、扩面”,为农业增收提供全面的风险保障。

关键词: 农业保险保障水平, 农业收入, 农业产业融合

Abstract:

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Xizang) from 2008 to 2020, the fixed effect model, Ⅳ-2SLS method and other tools were adopted to explore the impact of agricultural insurance coverage level on agricultural income and its mechanism path. It was found that there was a significant and robust “inverted U-shaped” relationship between the agricultural insurance coverage level and agricultural income, with a turning point value of 83.09% for the agricultural insurance coverage level. The agricultural industry integration played a part of the mesomeric effect in the mechanism of agricultural insurance coverage level promoting agricultural income increase, with the mesomeric effect accounting for 82.24%. Thus, it was proposed to accelerate the innovation of agricultural insurance products and the expansion of insurance liabilities, promote the “addition, upgrading, and expansion” of agricultural insurance, and provide comprehensive risk protection for increasing agricultural income.

Key words: agricultural insurance coverage level, agricultural income, agricultural industry integration

中图分类号:

S-9
F840.66

魏超, 陈盛伟, 牛浩, 李政. 农业保险保障水平与农业收入的“倒U型”关系——基于农业产业融合视角[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2024, 36(1): 225-234.

WEI Chao, CHEN Shengwei, NIU Hao, LI Zheng. An “inverted U-shaped” relationship between agricultural insurance coverage level and agricultural income: from perspective of agricultural industry integration[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(1): 225-234.

图/表 6

表1 农业产业融合综合评价体系

Table 1 Comprehensive evaluation system of agricultural industry integration

一级指标 Level Ⅰ indicators	二级指标 Level Ⅱ indicators	性质 Nature
农业产业链延伸 Extension of agricultural industry chain	农副食品加工业营业收入/农林牧渔业总产值 Operating income of agricultural and sideline food processing industry/total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	农村每万人拥有的农林牧渔业法人单位数 Number of legal entities of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery per 10 000 persons in rural areas	+
	第一产业总产值/第一产业就业人员数 Total output value of the primary industry/number of employees in the primary industry	+
农业多功能性扩展 Multi-functional expansion	农用化肥使用量/农作物播种总面积 Amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer used/total planting area of crops	-
of agriculture	农药使用量/农作物播种总面积 Pesticide usage/total planting area of crops	-
	温室总面积/第一产业就业人员数 Total greenhouse area/number of employees in the primary industry	+
	水土流失治理和除涝面积/农作物播种总面积 Soil erosion control and waterlogging removal area/total planting area of crops	+
	粮食产量/第一产业就业人员数 Grain output/number of employees in the primary industry	+
农业与服务业融合 Integration of agriculture and service industry	农林牧渔服务业产值/农林牧渔业总产值 Output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services/total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	社会消费品乡村零售额/乡村人口数 Rural retail sales of social consumer goods/rural population	+
	公路通车里程数/总人口Road mileage/total population	+

表1 农业产业融合综合评价体系

Table 1 Comprehensive evaluation system of agricultural industry integration

一级指标 Level Ⅰ indicators	二级指标 Level Ⅱ indicators	性质 Nature
农业产业链延伸 Extension of agricultural industry chain	农副食品加工业营业收入/农林牧渔业总产值 Operating income of agricultural and sideline food processing industry/total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	农村每万人拥有的农林牧渔业法人单位数 Number of legal entities of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery per 10 000 persons in rural areas	+
	第一产业总产值/第一产业就业人员数 Total output value of the primary industry/number of employees in the primary industry	+
农业多功能性扩展 Multi-functional expansion	农用化肥使用量/农作物播种总面积 Amount of agricultural chemical fertilizer used/total planting area of crops	-
of agriculture	农药使用量/农作物播种总面积 Pesticide usage/total planting area of crops	-
	温室总面积/第一产业就业人员数 Total greenhouse area/number of employees in the primary industry	+
	水土流失治理和除涝面积/农作物播种总面积 Soil erosion control and waterlogging removal area/total planting area of crops	+
	粮食产量/第一产业就业人员数 Grain output/number of employees in the primary industry	+
农业与服务业融合 Integration of agriculture and service industry	农林牧渔服务业产值/农林牧渔业总产值 Output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services/total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery	+
	社会消费品乡村零售额/乡村人口数 Rural retail sales of social consumer goods/rural population	+
	公路通车里程数/总人口Road mileage/total population	+

表2 变量的描述性统计

Table 2 Descriptive statistics of variables

变量 Variable	符号 Symbol	最大值 Maximum	最小值 Minimum	均值 Mean	标准差 Standard deviation
农业经营净收入Agricultural operation income	I	9.121	6.380	8.213	0.465
农业保险保障水平Agricultural insurance coverage level	S	1.163	0.004	0.296	0.303
农业产业融合指数Agricultural industry integration index	N	0.463	0.077	0.266	0.066
支农力度Agricultural support	F	2.075	0.042	0.233	0.275
产业结构Industrial structure	T	0.472	0.007	0.180	0.093
自然灾害Natural disaster	R	0.373	0	0.087	0.075
农村固定投资Rural fixed investment	V	1.384	0.005	0.209	0.172
受益率Benefit rate	B	14.934	0	0.276	0.796

表3 基准回归结果

Table 3 Benchmark regression results

变量 Variable	回归1 Regression 1	回归2 Regression 2
S	0.637^*** (10.95)	1.607^*** (11.02)
S²	—	-0.967^*** (-7.17)
F	-0.029 (-0.38)	0.238^*** (2.94)
T	-5.509^*** (-8.29)	-4.103^*** (-6.29)
R	-1.183^*** (-7.09)	-0.983^*** (-6.21)
V	0.364^*** (4.09)	0.126 (1.41)
B	0.026^** (1.99)	0.032^** (2.55)
常数项 Constant	8.608^*** (111.01)	8.320^*** (100.32)
n	390	390
R²	0.635	0.681
VIF	1.36	4.55
F值F value	102.59^***	107.79^***
Hausman检验Hausman test	81.66^***	76.91^***

表4 内生性处理的估计结果

Table 4 Estimation results of endogenous treatment

变量 Variable	回归3 Regression 3	回归4 Regression 4
S	1.732^*** (8.14)	2.883^*** (9.99)
S²	—	-2.061^*** (-8.09)
F	-0.837^*** (-4.07)	0.411^*** (3.02)
T	-3.888^*** (-3.08)	-2.249^** (-2.04)
R	-0.820^*** (-3.07)	-0.699^*** (-3.60)
V	0.023 (0.16)	-0.198^* (-1.81)
B	0.031^** (2.53)	0.039^*** (2.79)
n	390	390
R²	0.269	0.612
F值F value	63.79^***	81.43^***
KP-LM检验KP-LM test	41.068^***	60.745^***
KP-F检验KP-F test	33.586	53.816
Hansen-J检验Hansen-J test	0.565	0.465

表5 稳健性检验结果

Table 5 Robustness test results

变量 Variable	回归5 Regression 5	回归6 Regression 6	回归7 Regression 7	回归8 Regression 8
S	—	—	0.624^*** (12.95)	1.502^*** (10.51)
S²	—	—	—	-0.784^*** (-6.48)
S₁	0.628^*** (8.57)	1.454^*** (12.56)	—	—
$S 12$	—	-0.574^*** (-8.72)	—	—
F	0.108 (1.39)	0.093 (1.33)	—	—
T	-6.181^*** (-8.89)	-5.354^*** (-8.39)	-5.510^*** (-8.30)	-4.361^*** (-6.68)
R	-1.155^*** (-6.54)	-1.012^*** (-6.27)	-1.182^*** (-7.10)	-1.023^*** (-6.41)
V	0.438^*** (4.72)	0.270^*** (3.12)	0.364^*** (4.10)	0.170^* (1.91)
B	0.023 (1.62)	0.023^* (1.81)	0.026^** (1.98)	0.032^** (2.53)
常数项 Constant	8.694^*** (107.72)	8.528^*** (112.61)	8.605^*** (111.70)	8.394^*** (105.09)
n	390	390	390	390
R²	0.595	0.667	0.635	0.673
VIF	1.41	2.24	1.10	4.42
F值	86.72^***	100.98^***	123.38^***	121.68^***
F value
Hausman检验	90.95^***	99.17^***	57.14^***	45.76^***
Hausman test

表5 稳健性检验结果

Table 5 Robustness test results

变量 Variable	回归5 Regression 5	回归6 Regression 6	回归7 Regression 7	回归8 Regression 8
S	—	—	0.624^*** (12.95)	1.502^*** (10.51)
S²	—	—	—	-0.784^*** (-6.48)
S₁	0.628^*** (8.57)	1.454^*** (12.56)	—	—
$S 12$	—	-0.574^*** (-8.72)	—	—
F	0.108 (1.39)	0.093 (1.33)	—	—
T	-6.181^*** (-8.89)	-5.354^*** (-8.39)	-5.510^*** (-8.30)	-4.361^*** (-6.68)
R	-1.155^*** (-6.54)	-1.012^*** (-6.27)	-1.182^*** (-7.10)	-1.023^*** (-6.41)
V	0.438^*** (4.72)	0.270^*** (3.12)	0.364^*** (4.10)	0.170^* (1.91)
B	0.023 (1.62)	0.023^* (1.81)	0.026^** (1.98)	0.032^** (2.53)
常数项 Constant	8.694^*** (107.72)	8.528^*** (112.61)	8.605^*** (111.70)	8.394^*** (105.09)
n	390	390	390	390
R²	0.595	0.667	0.635	0.673
VIF	1.41	2.24	1.10	4.42
F值	86.72^***	100.98^***	123.38^***	121.68^***
F value
Hausman检验	90.95^***	99.17^***	57.14^***	45.76^***
Hausman test

表6 中介效应检验结果

Table 6 Mesomeric effect test results

变量 Variable	回归9 Regression 9	回归10 Regression 10
S	0.064^*** (6.60)	0.419^*** (8.31)
N	—	3.401^*** (13.17)
F	-0.010 (-0.76)	0.005 (0.08)
T	-0.304^*** (-3.17)	-4.216^*** (-7.61)
R	-0.101^*** (-3.61)	-0.818^*** (-5.87)
V	0.077^*** (5.20)	0.129^* (1.72)
B	0.002 (0.74)	0.023^** (2.06)
常数项 Constant	0.272^*** (18.89)	7.648^*** (79.06)
n	390	390
R²	0.375	0.755
VIF	1.36	1.39
F值F value	—	155.59^***
Wald检验Wald test	212.05^***	—
Hausman检验Hausman test	11.97	83.40^***
Bootstrap检验 Bootstrap test	—	0.088^*** (3.08) [0.032, 0.145]

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农业保险保障水平与农业收入的“倒U型”关系——基于农业产业融合视角

An “inverted U-shaped” relationship between agricultural insurance coverage level and agricultural income: from perspective of agricultural industry integration

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