中国农业碳中和评价——以2010—2020年为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230749

浙江农业学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1920-1933.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20230749

中国农业碳中和评价——以2010—2020年为例

师帅(), 周林庆

东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150030

收稿日期:2023-06-08 出版日期:2024-08-25 发布日期:2024-09-06
作者简介:师帅(1982—),女,黑龙江哈尔滨人,博士,副教授,研究方向为农业经济管理。E-mail: ss@neau.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金(23BGL236)

Evaluation of agricultural carbon neutrality level in China: case study of 2010-2020

SHI Shuai(), ZHOU Linqing

College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China

Received:2023-06-08 Online:2024-08-25 Published:2024-09-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

精准评估农业碳中和水平是实现我国“双碳”目标的前提。在厘清学术界对农业碳中和研究脉络的基础上,阐释农业碳中和的内涵,并从碳源与碳汇两个维度论述农业碳中和评价的理论架构,设置农业碳中和评价指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法实证评价中国30个省份2010—2020年的农业碳中和水平。结果表明:样本期内农业碳中和水平总体经历了“下降-上升”两个阶段的变化,2010—2016年农业碳中和水平年均下降6.97%,2017—2020年年均增长19.43%。农业碳中和水平呈现出明显的区域差异性,具体表现为东北地区>西部地区>中部地区>东部地区。据此建议各地结合区域农业碳源、碳汇的结构特征、自然特性与经济发展水平,统筹兼顾,从“减排”与“增汇”两手发力,协同推进农业碳中和进程。

关键词: 农业碳中和, 熵权-TOPSIS法, 减排增汇

Abstract:

Accurately assessing the level of agricultural carbon neutrality is a prerequisite to realize China’s “double carbon” goal. In the present study, the connotation of agricultural carbon neutrality was explained on the basis of clarifying the academic research progress on agricultural carbon neutrality. The theoretical framework of agricultural carbon neutrality evaluation was constructed from the dimensions of carbon sources and sinks, and the evaluation index system of agricultural carbon neutrality was set up. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method was used to empirically evaluate the level of agricultural carbon neutrality in 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2010 to 2020. It was shown that the agricultural carbon neutrality level during the sample period decreased first and then increased. In 2010-2016, the agricultural carbon neutrality level decreased by 6.97% annually, yet increased by 19.43% annually in 2017-2020. The level of agricultural carbon neutrality exhibited obvious regional differences, and decreased in the order of the northeast region>the western region>the central region>the eastern region. Thus, it was suggested that the overall consideration should be made according to the structural characters of agricultural carbon sources and sinks, natural characters and economic development, and efforts should be paid from both “emission reduction” and “sink increase” to promote the process of carbon neutrality.

Key words: agricultural carbon neutrality, entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, emission reduction and sink increase

中图分类号:

S-9
F323.22

师帅, 周林庆. 中国农业碳中和评价——以2010—2020年为例[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2024, 36(8): 1920-1933.

SHI Shuai, ZHOU Linqing. Evaluation of agricultural carbon neutrality level in China: case study of 2010-2020[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2024, 36(8): 1920-1933.

图/表 5

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一级指标 First-level indicators	二级指标 Second-level indicators	三级指标 Third-level indicators	属性 Attribute	权重 Weight/%
碳源 Carbon source	农业能源 Agricultural energy	单位面积原煤碳排放 Carbon emission of raw coal per unit area	-	3.97
		单位面积汽油碳排放Carbon emission of gasoline per unit area	-	4.82
		单位面积柴油碳排放Carbon emission of diesel oil per unit area	-	3.18
		单位面积农业用电碳排放 Carbon emission from agricultural electricity consumption per unit area	-	2.82
		人均土地翻耕碳排放Carbon emission per capita land ploughing	-	10.18
	农用物资投入 Investment in	单位面积农膜碳排放 Carbon emission of agricultural membrane per unit area	-	6.56
	agricultural materials	单位面积农药碳排放 Carbon emission of pesticides per unit area	-	11.72
		单位面积化肥碳排放 Carbon emission of chemical fertilizer per unit area	-	9.08
	动植物生长及废弃物处理 Animal and plant growth	单位面积粮食作物碳排放 Carbon emission from food crops per unit area	-	2.90
	and waste disposal	单位牲畜肠道发酵碳排放 Carbon emission from each unit of livestock intestinal fermentation	-	3.69
		单位畜禽粪便碳排放 Carbon emission from each unit of livestock and poultry manure	-	2.91
		单位面积秸秆焚烧碳排放 Carbon emission from straw burning per unit area	-	4.16
碳汇(C) Carbon sink (C)	农地 Cropland	单位面积农作物碳汇量 Carbon sink amount of farmland vegetation per unit area	+	3.23
		单位面积土壤碳汇量Soil carbon sink capacity per unit area	+	6.62
	其他用地Other land	人均草地碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita grassland	+	9.12
		人均湿地碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita wetland	+	5.07
		人均果园碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita orchard	+	3.50
		人均森林碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita forest	+	6.48

一级指标 First-level indicators	二级指标 Second-level indicators	三级指标 Third-level indicators	属性 Attribute	权重 Weight/%
碳源 Carbon source	农业能源 Agricultural energy	单位面积原煤碳排放 Carbon emission of raw coal per unit area	-	3.97
		单位面积汽油碳排放Carbon emission of gasoline per unit area	-	4.82
		单位面积柴油碳排放Carbon emission of diesel oil per unit area	-	3.18
		单位面积农业用电碳排放 Carbon emission from agricultural electricity consumption per unit area	-	2.82
		人均土地翻耕碳排放Carbon emission per capita land ploughing	-	10.18
	农用物资投入 Investment in	单位面积农膜碳排放 Carbon emission of agricultural membrane per unit area	-	6.56
	agricultural materials	单位面积农药碳排放 Carbon emission of pesticides per unit area	-	11.72
		单位面积化肥碳排放 Carbon emission of chemical fertilizer per unit area	-	9.08
	动植物生长及废弃物处理 Animal and plant growth	单位面积粮食作物碳排放 Carbon emission from food crops per unit area	-	2.90
	and waste disposal	单位牲畜肠道发酵碳排放 Carbon emission from each unit of livestock intestinal fermentation	-	3.69
		单位畜禽粪便碳排放 Carbon emission from each unit of livestock and poultry manure	-	2.91
		单位面积秸秆焚烧碳排放 Carbon emission from straw burning per unit area	-	4.16
碳汇(C) Carbon sink (C)	农地 Cropland	单位面积农作物碳汇量 Carbon sink amount of farmland vegetation per unit area	+	3.23
		单位面积土壤碳汇量Soil carbon sink capacity per unit area	+	6.62
	其他用地Other land	人均草地碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita grassland	+	9.12
		人均湿地碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita wetland	+	5.07
		人均果园碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita orchard	+	3.50
		人均森林碳汇量Carbon sink amount per capita forest	+	6.48

省份 Provincial administrative regions	2010	2016	2020	省份 Provincial administrative region	2010	2016	2020
北京Beijing	0.626	0.260	0.425	湖南Hunan	0.579	0.193	0.507
天津Tianjin	0.211	0.189	0.574	内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.512	0.417	0.601
河北Hebei	0.506	0.170	0.571	广西Guangxi	0.487	0.296	0.545
上海Shanghai	0.311	0.227	0.746	重庆Chongqing	0.494	0.383	0.516
江苏Jiangsu	0.260	0.285	0.773	四川Sichuan	0.325	0.370	0.707
浙江Zhejiang	0.324	0.192	0.701	贵州Guizhou	0.611	0.278	0.445
福建Fujian	0.315	0.272	0.706	云南Yunnan	0.463	0.299	0.437
山东Shandong	0.267	0.332	0.739	陕西Shaanxi	0.586	0.402	0.390
广东Guangdong	0.408	0.261	0.638	甘肃Gansu	0.479	0.268	0.521
海南Hainan	0.448	0.385	0.539	青海Qinghai	0.149	0.165	0.850
山西Shanxi	0.594	0.219	0.474	宁夏Ningxia	0.611	0.206	0.471
安徽Anhui	0.494	0.294	0.586	新疆Xinjiang	0.666	0.279	0.483
江西Jiangxi	0.386	0.226	0.619	黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.590	0.387	0.626
河南Henan	0.341	0.282	0.700	吉林Jilin	0.582	0.342	0.604
湖北Hubei	0.379	0.457	0.584	辽宁Liaoning	0.463	0.392	0.679

省份 Provincial administrative regions	2010	2016	2020	省份 Provincial administrative region	2010	2016	2020
北京Beijing	0.626	0.260	0.425	湖南Hunan	0.579	0.193	0.507
天津Tianjin	0.211	0.189	0.574	内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.512	0.417	0.601
河北Hebei	0.506	0.170	0.571	广西Guangxi	0.487	0.296	0.545
上海Shanghai	0.311	0.227	0.746	重庆Chongqing	0.494	0.383	0.516
江苏Jiangsu	0.260	0.285	0.773	四川Sichuan	0.325	0.370	0.707
浙江Zhejiang	0.324	0.192	0.701	贵州Guizhou	0.611	0.278	0.445
福建Fujian	0.315	0.272	0.706	云南Yunnan	0.463	0.299	0.437
山东Shandong	0.267	0.332	0.739	陕西Shaanxi	0.586	0.402	0.390
广东Guangdong	0.408	0.261	0.638	甘肃Gansu	0.479	0.268	0.521
海南Hainan	0.448	0.385	0.539	青海Qinghai	0.149	0.165	0.850
山西Shanxi	0.594	0.219	0.474	宁夏Ningxia	0.611	0.206	0.471
安徽Anhui	0.494	0.294	0.586	新疆Xinjiang	0.666	0.279	0.483
江西Jiangxi	0.386	0.226	0.619	黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.590	0.387	0.626
河南Henan	0.341	0.282	0.700	吉林Jilin	0.582	0.342	0.604
湖北Hubei	0.379	0.457	0.584	辽宁Liaoning	0.463	0.392	0.679

省份 Provincial administrative regions	农业碳中和水平 Agricultural carbon neutral level	排名 Ranking	阶段 Stage	省份 Provincial administrative regions	农业碳中和水平 Agricultural carbon neutral level	排名 Ranking	阶段 Stage
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	0.476	1	中绿Medium green	广东Guangdong	0.409	16	中绿Medium green
吉林Jilin	0.475	2	中绿Medium green	北京Beijing	0.407	17	中绿Medium green
重庆Chongqing	0.466	3	中绿Medium green	福建Fujian	0.401	18	中绿Medium green
辽宁Liaoning	0.463	4	中绿Medium green	河北Hebei	0.395	19	浅绿Light green
新疆Xinjiang	0.456	5	中绿Medium green	山东Shandong	0.392	20	浅绿Light green
海南Hainan	0.456	6	中绿Medium green	湖南Hunan	0.392	21	浅绿Light green
湖北Hubei	0.454	7	中绿Medium green	山西Shanxi	0.385	22	浅绿Light green
广西Guangxi	0.449	8	中绿Medium green	云南Yunnan	0.377	23	浅绿Light green
黑龙江Heilongjiang	0.446	9	中绿Medium green	河南Henan	0.369	24	浅绿Light green
四川Sichuan	0.437	10	中绿Medium green	天津Tianjin	0.353	25	浅绿Light green
贵州Guizhou	0.434	11	中绿Medium green	江苏Jiangsu	0.352	26	浅绿Light green
甘肃Gansu	0.429	12	中绿Medium green	上海Shanghai	0.350	27	浅绿Light green
安徽Anhui	0.426	13	中绿Medium green	江西Jiangxi	0.345	28	浅绿Light green
陕西Shaanxi	0.420	14	中绿Medium green	浙江Zhejiang	0.333	29	浅绿Light green
宁夏Ningxia	0.416	15	中绿Medium green	青海Qinghai	0.228	30	微绿Microgreen

中国农业碳中和评价——以2010—2020年为例

Evaluation of agricultural carbon neutrality level in China: case study of 2010-2020

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