Abstract: The USA and China are important agricultural trade partners, but trade friction occured frequently between the two countries. We discussed trade diversion effect in the case of USA-to-China antidumping by dynamic panel data. There was significant evidence of trade diversion effect which indicated the named China commodity was substituted with import from the third country unnamed. Therefore, the welfare of antidumping initiator was much lower than its expectation. In case trade diversion was considered, initiator should seek trade remedy like antidumping with weak intension. The conclusion was meaningful for agricultural trade between the USA and China．

Key words: agricultural product, antidumping, trade diversion effect