Abstract: Using the method of empirical research and quantitative analysis prediction based on different assumptions and targets， the mathematical model of agricultural land proper scale management was constructed. The cultivated land transfer， circulation amount， turnover rate and the number of rural surplus labor transfer prediction of hidden rate to be transferred in Yuncheng County were forecasted by stages. Then by comparing the predicted data and the actual data， the influence of local assumptions on the cultivated land transfer was found out， the root causes of slow flow of cultivated land in Yuncheng County was revealed， and then the coping strategies were developed in order to maximize the arable land production potential and to promote the process of agricultural modernization. The results showed that， in phase 2 and phase 3， it was possible to realize the stable and high turnover rate of the cultivated land; however， the cultivated land transferred slowly at low ratios in stage 1. There was a huge transfer potential of cultivated land both from the scale and the efficiency. It was concluded that in order to realize the moderate management scale of the arable land of Yuncheng， the number of agricultural labor needed to be transferred was huge， and the situation was urgent， the task was arduous．

Key words: rural cultivated land, Yuncheng, circulation amount, turnover rate, prediction