东北黑土区耕地生态承载力时空分异与可持续性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231392

浙江农业学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 954-964.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20231392

• 农业经济与发展 • 上一篇

东北黑土区耕地生态承载力时空分异与可持续性分析

崔宁波(), 肖扬, 杨佳利, 王婷

东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150030

收稿日期:2023-12-11 出版日期:2025-04-25 发布日期:2025-05-09
作者简介:崔宁波(1980—),女,黑龙江哈尔滨人,博士,教授,主要研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail:82890000@163.com
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金(23BJY188);国家社会科学基金(20BJY149)

Analysis of spatiotemporal divergence and sustainability of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in northeastern black soil area, China

CUI Ningbo(), XIAO Yang, YANG Jiali, WANG Ting

College of Economics and Management, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China

Received:2023-12-11 Online:2025-04-25 Published:2025-05-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 东北黑土区肩负保障国家粮食安全的重任。利用2006—2020年的面板数据,基于改进的三维耕地生态足迹模型,在修正耕地参数因子和核算耕地碳足迹的基础上,探究了东北黑土区耕地生态状况的时空格局演化,并借助生态盈亏、可持续利用指数、生态压力指数等指标研判东北黑土区耕地生态状况的可持续性。结果显示:在时序演变上,东北黑土区耕地生态足迹和生态承载力均呈现倒“V”型动态变化,耕地碳足迹呈现上涨态势。在空间演变上,东北黑土区的耕地生态足迹由南向北依次递增,耕地生态承载水平呈现“北高南低、东高西低”的分布格局,空间差异程度逐渐加深。在可持续性上,东北黑土区耕地的生态赤字局势初步显现,生态压力指数围绕0.8波动,总体呈现递增的趋势,黑土利用正逐步向不可持续方向发展。

关键词: 耕地, 生态承载力, 碳足迹, 生态足迹, 可持续性

Abstract:

In China, the northeast black soil area shoulders the important responsibility of guaranteeing national food security. By using the panel data from 2006 to 2020, the spatial and temporal pattern of ecological status of arable land in the northeast black soil area was explored, based on the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model of arable land and the corrected parameter factors of arable land and the accounting of cropland carbon footprints, as well as the evaluation on the sustainability of ecological status of arable land in the northeast black soil area with the help of ecological deficit/surplus, sustainable utilization index, ecological pressure index, etc. It was shown that in terms of temporal evolution, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of arable land in the northeast black soil area exhibited an inverted “V” dynamic change, while the carbon footprint of arable land showed a rising trend. In terms of spatial evolution, the ecological footprint of arable land in the northeast black soil area increased from south to north, and the ecological carrying capacity of arable land showed a distribution pattern of “high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west”, and the degree of spatial difference gradually deepened. In terms of sustainability, the ecological deficit situation of arable land in the northeast black soil area emerged, with the ecological pressure index fluctuating around 0.8, showing an overall increasing trend, and the utilization of black soil gradually developed in an unsustainable direction.

Key words: arable land, ecological carrying capacity, carbon footprint, ecological footprint, sustainability

中图分类号:

F301.21
S158

崔宁波, 肖扬, 杨佳利, 王婷. 东北黑土区耕地生态承载力时空分异与可持续性分析[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2025, 37(4): 954-964.

CUI Ningbo, XIAO Yang, YANG Jiali, WANG Ting. Analysis of spatiotemporal divergence and sustainability of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in northeastern black soil area, China[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2025, 37(4): 954-964.

图/表 8

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年份 Year	ALEF/ (10⁵ hm²)	ECCAL/ (10⁵ hm²)	ALEF_m/ hm²	ECCAL_m/ hm²
2006	193.21	214.49	0.49	0.58
2007	218.50	253.61	0.55	0.67
2008	184.27	249.36	0.53	0.65
2009	203.15	298.06	0.52	0.82
2010	207.85	275.18	0.54	0.73
2011	226.55	283.46	0.60	0.76
2012	224.52	307.30	0.57	0.83
2013	226.56	257.21	0.55	0.71
2014	306.78	300.82	0.68	0.84
2015	237.07	249.43	0.63	0.69
2016	233.34	256.65	0.63	0.73
2017	228.69	203.07	0.97	0.59
2018	233.99	207.72	0.68	0.61
2019	244.24	250.34	0.82	0.83
2020	273.10	242.69	0.99	0.85

年份 Year	ALEF/ (10⁵ hm²)	ECCAL/ (10⁵ hm²)	ALEF_m/ hm²	ECCAL_m/ hm²
2006	193.21	214.49	0.49	0.58
2007	218.50	253.61	0.55	0.67
2008	184.27	249.36	0.53	0.65
2009	203.15	298.06	0.52	0.82
2010	207.85	275.18	0.54	0.73
2011	226.55	283.46	0.60	0.76
2012	224.52	307.30	0.57	0.83
2013	226.56	257.21	0.55	0.71
2014	306.78	300.82	0.68	0.84
2015	237.07	249.43	0.63	0.69
2016	233.34	256.65	0.63	0.73
2017	228.69	203.07	0.97	0.59
2018	233.99	207.72	0.68	0.61
2019	244.24	250.34	0.82	0.83
2020	273.10	242.69	0.99	0.85

地级市 Prefecture-level city	E_F2/(10⁴ hm²)				E/(10⁴ t)				C_t/(10⁴ t)
地级市 Prefecture-level city	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020
哈尔滨Harbin	18.97	16.22	21.97	23.31	134.49	159.87	181.54	171.65	1 275.32	1 940.36	1 634.29	1 454.37
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	28.06	28.31	33.42	31.34	124.19	152.50	171.32	179.25	922.77	1 303.62	1 234.24	1 412.23
大庆Daqing	7.23	6.33	9.71	7.44	43.87	64.08	69.07	65.01	376.64	742.53	535.29	616.94
黑河Heihe	13.66	16.06	23.76	27.58	40.21	58.23	68.75	99.05	240.56	435.41	375.90	656.89
绥化Suihua	18.15	15.41	20.40	19.33	117.57	144.19	158.16	146.42	1 068.29	1 731.22	1 467.60	1 386.19
佳木斯Jiamusi	13.93	13.17	13.75	21.29	62.75	87.69	91.38	129.96	483.85	856.70	745.95	1 128.36
双鸭山Shuangyashan	3.79	3.54	3.93	10.79	21.40	26.64	29.47	67.93	211.64	317.16	310.13	604.48
七台河Qitaihe	1.76	2.08	1.84	2.21	8.97	12.64	12.89	14.44	77.03	104.61	127.19	134.81
鸡西Jixi	5.55	4.13	4.24	11.51	30.88	28.16	29.31	76.57	221.74	324.76	306.54	607.92
吉林Jilin	5.88	8.39	9.31	9.54	56.72	74.94	80.65	74.55	558.89	615.43	610.48	526.48
长春Changchun	9.69	15.27	13.44	14.30	99.43	136.57	140.60	137.80	1 170.00	1 160.33	1 412.12	1 508.89
四平Siping	4.44	8.66	8.77	6.29	51.46	93.23	97.56	62.74	811.41	984.28	1 019.67	580.40
辽源Liaoyuan	1.36	2.87	3.21	2.87	14.26	20.53	25.91	23.13	170.77	159.55	198.10	186.22
松原Songyuan	7.67	13.81	14.42	14.41	74.10	105.44	125.71	118.10	785.26	922.35	1 053.21	996.91
沈阳Shenyang	7.77	6.53	8.68	7.11	78.24	85.60	86.25	86.82	597.94	894.77	751.50	826.00
鞍山Anshan	2.29	2.05	2.26	2.42	29.79	32.62	32.65	32.43	320.51	380.92	358.51	334.86
辽阳Liaoyang	2.03	2.08	1.94	1.69	20.61	22.09	21.63	20.41	154.96	187.41	181.66	190.38
铁岭Tieling	5.12	4.92	6.16	6.80	63.93	74.20	69.02	67.80	630.84	816.83	614.10	538.55

地级市 Prefecture-level city	E_F2/(10⁴ hm²)				E/(10⁴ t)				C_t/(10⁴ t)
地级市 Prefecture-level city	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020
哈尔滨Harbin	18.97	16.22	21.97	23.31	134.49	159.87	181.54	171.65	1 275.32	1 940.36	1 634.29	1 454.37
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	28.06	28.31	33.42	31.34	124.19	152.50	171.32	179.25	922.77	1 303.62	1 234.24	1 412.23
大庆Daqing	7.23	6.33	9.71	7.44	43.87	64.08	69.07	65.01	376.64	742.53	535.29	616.94
黑河Heihe	13.66	16.06	23.76	27.58	40.21	58.23	68.75	99.05	240.56	435.41	375.90	656.89
绥化Suihua	18.15	15.41	20.40	19.33	117.57	144.19	158.16	146.42	1 068.29	1 731.22	1 467.60	1 386.19
佳木斯Jiamusi	13.93	13.17	13.75	21.29	62.75	87.69	91.38	129.96	483.85	856.70	745.95	1 128.36
双鸭山Shuangyashan	3.79	3.54	3.93	10.79	21.40	26.64	29.47	67.93	211.64	317.16	310.13	604.48
七台河Qitaihe	1.76	2.08	1.84	2.21	8.97	12.64	12.89	14.44	77.03	104.61	127.19	134.81
鸡西Jixi	5.55	4.13	4.24	11.51	30.88	28.16	29.31	76.57	221.74	324.76	306.54	607.92
吉林Jilin	5.88	8.39	9.31	9.54	56.72	74.94	80.65	74.55	558.89	615.43	610.48	526.48
长春Changchun	9.69	15.27	13.44	14.30	99.43	136.57	140.60	137.80	1 170.00	1 160.33	1 412.12	1 508.89
四平Siping	4.44	8.66	8.77	6.29	51.46	93.23	97.56	62.74	811.41	984.28	1 019.67	580.40
辽源Liaoyuan	1.36	2.87	3.21	2.87	14.26	20.53	25.91	23.13	170.77	159.55	198.10	186.22
松原Songyuan	7.67	13.81	14.42	14.41	74.10	105.44	125.71	118.10	785.26	922.35	1 053.21	996.91
沈阳Shenyang	7.77	6.53	8.68	7.11	78.24	85.60	86.25	86.82	597.94	894.77	751.50	826.00
鞍山Anshan	2.29	2.05	2.26	2.42	29.79	32.62	32.65	32.43	320.51	380.92	358.51	334.86
辽阳Liaoyang	2.03	2.08	1.94	1.69	20.61	22.09	21.63	20.41	154.96	187.41	181.66	190.38
铁岭Tieling	5.12	4.92	6.16	6.80	63.93	74.20	69.02	67.80	630.84	816.83	614.10	538.55

地级市 Prefecture-level city	E_Fdepth				E_Fsize				e_f3D
地级市 Prefecture-level city	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020	2006	2011	2016	2020
哈尔滨Harbin	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.04	430.78	464.67	481.65	511.44	0.44	0.47	0.50	0.53
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.27	457.52	540.35	557.74	515.26	0.81	0.95	1.00	1.62
大庆Daqing	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	109.42	161.27	164.36	190.51	0.41	0.57	0.59	0.69
黑河Heihe	1.46	1.25	1.85	1.96	132.56	226.36	173.87	248.75	1.12	1.63	1.97	3.83
绥化Suihua	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.03	379.56	433.34	451.80	477.83	0.67	0.74	0.83	1.33
佳木斯Jiamusi	1.06	1.00	1.00	1.08	238.50	305.04	270.26	455.91	1.02	1.22	1.18	2.29
双鸭山Shuangyashan	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.08	86.71	98.35	98.33	236.93	0.58	0.65	0.68	1.19
七台河Qitaihe	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.27	34.93	40.61	41.57	43.68	0.39	0.44	0.52	0.81
鸡西Jixi	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.03	94.49	112.58	103.69	238.04	0.50	0.60	0.57	1.64
吉林Jilin	1.00	2.00	1.00	1.12	139.47	148.57	147.69	151.47	0.32	0.68	0.35	0.42
长春Changchun	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	260.37	313.77	284.90	401.77	0.35	0.41	0.38	0.47
四平Siping	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	163.75	215.33	193.69	153.20	0.49	0.63	0.60	0.72
辽源Liaoyuan	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.03	39.42	25.04	53.25	56.13	0.32	0.20	0.44	0.50
松原Songyuan	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	169.49	208.16	243.41	297.78	0.61	0.71	0.88	1.09
沈阳Shenyang	1.09	1.00	1.00	1.00	110.30	119.20	112.06	114.40	0.17	0.16	0.15	0.15
鞍山Anshan	1.03	1.00	1.00	1.01	49.37	46.41	43.48	43.41	0.15	0.13	0.13	0.13
辽阳Liaoyang	1.05	1.00	1.00	1.00	30.64	30.54	28.94	27.83	0.18	0.17	0.16	0.16
铁岭Tieling	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	104.41	104.43	97.09	97.03	0.34	0.34	0.32	0.34

东北黑土区耕地生态承载力时空分异与可持续性分析

Analysis of spatiotemporal divergence and sustainability of ecological carrying capacity of arable land in northeastern black soil area, China

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地级市 Prefecture- level city	各年的人均耕地生态足迹 Ecological footprint of arable land per capita in different years
地级市 Prefecture- level city	2006	2011	2016	2020
黑河Heihe	MVZ	RHVZ	RHVZ	HVZ
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	MVZ	MVZ	MVZ	RHVZ
绥化Suihua	RLVZ	RLVZ	MVZ	MVZ
大庆Daqing	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ
松原Songyuan	RLVZ	RLVZ	MVZ	MVZ
哈尔滨Harbin	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ
长春Changchun	LVZ	RLVZ	LVZ	RLVZ
四平Siping	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ
吉林Jilin	LVZ	RLVZ	LVZ	RLVZ
辽源Liaoyuan	LVZ	LVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ
铁岭Tieling	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ
沈阳Shenyang	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ
辽阳Liaoyang	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ
鞍山Anshan	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ	LVZ
七台河Qitaihe	LVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	MVZ
鸡西Jixi	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	RHVZ
双鸭山Shuangyashan	RLVZ	RLVZ	RLVZ	MVZ
佳木斯Jiamusi	MVZ	MVZ	MVZ	RHVZ

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[2]	罗海平, 潘柳欣, 胡学英, 刘祖光. 我国粮食主产区耕地利用变化的粮食与生态效应研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2023, 35(1): 226-237.
[3]	张艳彬, 梁颖, 耿槟, 顾明哲, 徐保根. 基于熵权TOPSIS模型的耕地生态补偿政策绩效评价与关联分析——以浙江省开化县为例[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2022, 34(12): 2800-2808.
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[5]	崔宁波, 生世玉. 粮食安全视角下的东北黑土区耕地生态补偿研究[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2021, 33(9): 1759-1769.
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地级市 Prefecture- level city	各年的生态盈亏 Ecological deficit and surplus of different years
地级市 Prefecture- level city	2006	2011	2016	2020
黑河Heihe	MoED	MoED	MoED	SED
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	MiED	MiED	MiED	MoED
绥化Suihua	MiED	MoED	MoED	MiED
大庆Daqing	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
松原Songyuan	MoED	MiED	MiED	MiED
哈尔滨Harbin	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
长春Changchun	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
四平Siping	MoED	MiED	MoED	MiED
吉林Jilin	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
辽源Liaoyuan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
铁岭Tieling	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
沈阳Shenyang	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
辽阳Liaoyang	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
鞍山Anshan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
七台河Qitaihe	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
鸡西Jixi	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
双鸭山Shuangyashan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
佳木斯Jiamusi	MiED	MoED	MoED	MiED

地级市 Prefecture- level city	各年的生态盈亏 Ecological deficit and surplus of different years
地级市 Prefecture- level city	2006	2011	2016	2020
黑河Heihe	MoED	MoED	MoED	SED
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	MiED	MiED	MiED	MoED
绥化Suihua	MiED	MoED	MoED	MiED
大庆Daqing	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
松原Songyuan	MoED	MiED	MiED	MiED
哈尔滨Harbin	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
长春Changchun	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
四平Siping	MoED	MiED	MoED	MiED
吉林Jilin	MiED	MoED	MiED	MiED
辽源Liaoyuan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
铁岭Tieling	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
沈阳Shenyang	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
辽阳Liaoyang	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
鞍山Anshan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
七台河Qitaihe	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
鸡西Jixi	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
双鸭山Shuangyashan	MiED	MiED	MiED	MiED
佳木斯Jiamusi	MiED	MoED	MoED	MiED

地级市 Prefecture- level city	各年的可持续利用状况 Sustainable utilization status of different years
地级市 Prefecture- level city	2006	2011	2016	2020
黑河Heihe	WUU	WUU	MUU	MUU
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
绥化Suihua	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
大庆Daqing	WSU	MSU	WSU	WSU
松原Songyuan	MSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
哈尔滨Harbin	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
长春Changchun	WSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
四平Siping	MSU	WSU	MSU	WSU
吉林Jilin	WSU	MUU	WSU	WUU
辽源Liaoyuan	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
铁岭Tieling	WSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
沈阳Shenyang	WUU	WSU	WSU	WSU
辽阳Liaoyang	WUU	WSU	WSU	WSU
鞍山Anshan	WUU	WSU	WSU	WUU
七台河Qitaihe	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
鸡西Jixi	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
双鸭山Shuangyashan	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
佳木斯Jiamusi	WUU	WSU	WSU	WUU

地级市 Prefecture- level city	各年的可持续利用状况 Sustainable utilization status of different years
地级市 Prefecture- level city	2006	2011	2016	2020
黑河Heihe	WUU	WUU	MUU	MUU
齐齐哈尔Qiqihar	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
绥化Suihua	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
大庆Daqing	WSU	MSU	WSU	WSU
松原Songyuan	MSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
哈尔滨Harbin	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
长春Changchun	WSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
四平Siping	MSU	WSU	MSU	WSU
吉林Jilin	WSU	MUU	WSU	WUU
辽源Liaoyuan	WSU	MSU	WSU	WUU
铁岭Tieling	WSU	WSU	WSU	WSU
沈阳Shenyang	WUU	WSU	WSU	WSU
辽阳Liaoyang	WUU	WSU	WSU	WSU
鞍山Anshan	WUU	WSU	WSU	WUU
七台河Qitaihe	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
鸡西Jixi	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
双鸭山Shuangyashan	WSU	WSU	WSU	WUU
佳木斯Jiamusi	WUU	WSU	WSU	WUU