Fluctuation and forecast analysis of hog price in Jiangxi Province based on LS-SVM with grey correlation analysis

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2016.09.24

›› 2016, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (9): 1624-1630.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2016.09.24

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles

Fluctuation and forecast analysis of hog price in Jiangxi Province based on LS-SVM with grey correlation analysis

FU Lian-lian^{1, 2}, WENG Zhen-lin², ZHANG Ya-yan²

1. Faculty of Science,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China;
2. Jiangxi Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Agriculture Development,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China

Received:2015-12-05 Online:2016-09-15 Published:2016-11-23

Abstract

Abstract: The paper explored the characteristics of fluctuation for hog price from January 2000 to May 2015 by Census-X12 and HP analysis and identified significant factors for hog price by stepwise regression and grey correlation analysis. On this basis, the LS-SVM model was constructed to predict hog price. The results showed that the fluctuation for hog price was seasonal with the largest seasonal factor in January and the lowest in June. Since 2000, hog price had experienced seven fluctuation cycles and each cycle continued 25.3 months. Contribution of stochastic component to price was increasing.Corn price, piglet price, pork price, producers�� expectation, beef price and epidemic disease were notable factors for hog price, among which corn price and piglet price were the largest. The predicted value and actual value of LS-SVM were close. The average error was only 1.37%. The LS-SVM model can effectively describe the nonlinear relations between hog price and its factors.

Key words: hog price, characteristics, grey correlation, LS-SVM model, warning

CLC Number:

FU Lian-lian, WENG Zhen-lin, ZHANG Ya-yan. Fluctuation and forecast analysis of hog price in Jiangxi Province based on LS-SVM with grey correlation analysis[J]. , 2016, 28(9): 1624-1630.

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Fluctuation and forecast analysis of hog price in Jiangxi Province based on LS-SVM with grey correlation analysis

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