Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20250693

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (7): 1355-1365.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20250693

• Horticultural Science • Previous Articles Next Articles

Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica

FENG Yue¹(), HE Weijun¹, CAO Jing², SUN Ting², GU Honghui³, CHEN Jun⁴, WU Qibao⁵, ZHANG Wenyu²^,^*(), WU Zaogui¹^,^*()

¹ Zhejiang Provincial Seed Management Station, Hangzhou 310020, China
² Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences Wuxi Branch, Wuxi 214174, Jiangsu, China
³ Institute of Vegetables, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China
⁴ Jiaojiang Seed Affairs Station, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China
⁵ Sanmen Agricultural Technology Extension Center, Sanmen 317100, Zhejiang, China

Received:2025-11-10 Online:2026-07-25 Published:2026-08-20

Abstract

Abstract:

The floral initiation stage of broccoli significantly impacts yield, quality formation, cropping sequence and sowing date management. To accurately predict the time required from transplanting to floral initiation for different broccoli varieties, this study constructed a temperature- and photoperiod-based simulation model of the broccoli floral initiation stage using multi-year meteorological data from two experimental sites in Jiaojiang and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, together with observational data on the transplanting and floral initiation dates of different varieties. Key parameters and their interactions were identified through Sobol sensitivity analysis, and the potential heat unit required from transplanting to floral initiation (G_v), temperature sensitivity (S_T), optimum temperature (T_o) and photoperiod sensitivity (G) were optimized using a grid search and alternating iteration strategy. Data from the Jiaojiang site were used for parameter calibration, and data from the Sanmen site were used for model validation. The results showed significant differences among varieties in sensitivity to temperature and photoperiod. The average root mean square error of the model was 2.78 d in calibration and 1.33 d in validation, indicating that the model could simulate the floral initiation stage of broccoli with acceptable accuracy and provide a theoretical basis for new variety breeding, production management optimization and regional adaptability assessment.

Key words: broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica), floral initiation, temperature, photoperiod, simulation model

CLC Number:

S635.3

FENG Yue, HE Weijun, CAO Jing, SUN Ting, GU Honghui, CHEN Jun, WU Qibao, ZHANG Wenyu, WU Zaogui. Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2026, 38(7): 1355-1365.

Figures/Tables 6

References 33

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参数 Parameter	参数意义 Parameter description	参数范围 Parameter range	一阶敏感性指数 First-order sensitivity index	总效应敏感性指数 Total sensitivity index
S_Dc	临界日照时数 Critical sunshine duration	8~14 h	0.398 6	0.593 1
G	光周期敏感性 Photoperiod sensitivity	0.000 1~1	-0.007 3	0.173 4
G_v	定植至现蕾所需的潜在热量单元 Potential heat units required from transplanting to floral initiation	20~140 ℃·d	0.162 2	0.291 2
S_T	温度敏感性 Temperature sensitivity	0.1~5.0	0.069 7	0.116 0
T_o	最适温度 Optimal temperature	8.0~25.9 ℃	0.065 4	0.151 8
T_b	下限温度 Lower limit of temperature	0~7.9 ℃	0.003 5	0.017 8
T_u	上限温度 Upper limit of temperature	26~40 ℃	0.013 5	0.073 1

参数 Parameter	参数意义 Parameter description	参数范围 Parameter range	一阶敏感性指数 First-order sensitivity index	总效应敏感性指数 Total sensitivity index
S_Dc	临界日照时数 Critical sunshine duration	8~14 h	0.398 6	0.593 1
G	光周期敏感性 Photoperiod sensitivity	0.000 1~1	-0.007 3	0.173 4
G_v	定植至现蕾所需的潜在热量单元 Potential heat units required from transplanting to floral initiation	20~140 ℃·d	0.162 2	0.291 2
S_T	温度敏感性 Temperature sensitivity	0.1~5.0	0.069 7	0.116 0
T_o	最适温度 Optimal temperature	8.0~25.9 ℃	0.065 4	0.151 8
T_b	下限温度 Lower limit of temperature	0~7.9 ℃	0.003 5	0.017 8
T_u	上限温度 Upper limit of temperature	26~40 ℃	0.013 5	0.073 1

品种Variety	G_v/(℃·d)	G	S_T	T_o/℃
绿雄90 Lyuxiong 90	42	0.316 2	2.074 9	15
耐寒优秀Naihanyouxiu	35	0.316 2	0.672 7	22
台绿5号Tailyu 5	70	0.000 1	0.993 5	9
台绿6号Tailyu 6	56	0.100 0	1.600 0	19
炎秀Yanxiu	33	0.316 2	2.902 8	18
浙青100 Zheqing 100	56	0.100 0	2.074 9	19
浙青161 Zheqing 161	30	0.562 3	1.233 8	19
浙青227 Zheqing 227	29	0.562 3	1.345 4	18
中青319 Zhongqing 319	75	0.000 1	0.141 4	19

品种Variety	G_v/(℃·d)	G	S_T	T_o/℃
绿雄90 Lyuxiong 90	42	0.316 2	2.074 9	15
耐寒优秀Naihanyouxiu	35	0.316 2	0.672 7	22
台绿5号Tailyu 5	70	0.000 1	0.993 5	9
台绿6号Tailyu 6	56	0.100 0	1.600 0	19
炎秀Yanxiu	33	0.316 2	2.902 8	18
浙青100 Zheqing 100	56	0.100 0	2.074 9	19
浙青161 Zheqing 161	30	0.562 3	1.233 8	19
浙青227 Zheqing 227	29	0.562 3	1.345 4	18
中青319 Zhongqing 319	75	0.000 1	0.141 4	19

Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica

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