Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis ›› 2021, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 1956-1970.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2021.10.20

• Agricultural Economy and Development • Previous Articles Next Articles

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

TAO Yuan¹(), ZHOU Yuxi², HU Jilian³^,^*()

1. College of Finance and Economics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Tai’an 271019, China
2. College of Public Administration, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China
3. College of Marxism, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018, China

Received:2020-10-27 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-11-02
Contact: HU Jilian

Abstract

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, the application of chemical fertilizers in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, the same as below) has shown a trend of continuous growth. In 2016, there was a negative growth for the first time, but the application intensity of chemical fertilizers did not substantially decrease. Currently, the application intensity of chemical fertilizers in China is still higher than the international safety standard. Based on the analysis of the current status of chemical fertilizer application in China, a factor decomposition model was introduced to scientifically analyze the relationship within structure share, efficiency share and changes in chemical fertilizer application intensity from two aspects of high-fertilizer crops and high-intensity areas. The results showed that the application amount and intensity of chemical fertilizer in China were on the rise as a whole in 1990-2018. The difference in planting structure within regions was one of the important reasons for the regional differences in chemical fertilizer application intensity. At the aspects of high-fertilizer crops, the biased planting structure toward fruits and vegetables was the leading factor for the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity, and the structure drive rate reached 66.74%. At the aspect of high-intensity areas, the structure share and efficiency share both contributed to the increase of chemical fertilizer application intensity. However, the efficiency drive effect has increased since 2017. Factors, such as the level of economic development, agricultural labor transfer, and the urbanization development level had significant (P<0.1) impact on the chemical fertilizer application intensity. Therefore, more efforts should be devoted to the adjustment and optimization of planting structure by reducing the sowing area of high-fertilizer crops, as well as the improvement in the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizers via promotion of fertilizer-saving technologies, to reduce chemical fertilizer application intensity in the future.

Key words: fertilizer application intensity, factor decomposition, structure drive rate, efficiency drive rate, control path

CLC Number:

S147.2
S181

TAO Yuan, ZHOU Yuxi, HU Jilian. Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2021, 33(10): 1956-1970.

Figures/Tables 10

References 26

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年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer	年份 Year	化肥(总计) Chemical fertilizer (total)	氮肥 Nitrogen fertilizer	磷肥 Phosphate fertilizer	钾肥 Potash fertilizer	复合肥 Compound fertilizer
1990	2 590.30	1 638.40	462.40	147.90	341.60	2005	4 766.20	2 229.30	743.80	489.50	1 303.20
1991	2 805.10	1 726.10	499.60	173.90	405.50	2006	4 927.70	2 262.50	769.50	509.70	1 385.90
1992	2 930.20	1 756.10	515.70	196.00	462.40	2007	5 107.80	2 297.20	773.00	533.60	1 503.00
1993	3 151.90	1 835.10	575.10	212.30	529.40	2008	5 239.00	2 302.90	780.10	545.20	1 608.60
1994	3 317.90	1 882.00	600.70	234.80	600.60	2009	5 404.40	2 329.90	797.70	564.30	1 698.70
1995	3 593.70	2 021.90	632.40	268.50	670.80	2010	5 561.70	2 353.70	805.60	586.40	1 798.50
1996	3 827.90	2 145.30	658.40	289.60	734.70	2011	5 704.20	2 381.40	819.20	605.10	1 895.10
1997	3 980.70	2 171.70	689.10	322.00	798.10	2012	5 838.80	2 399.90	828.60	617.70	1 990.00
1998	4 083.70	2 233.30	682.50	345.70	822.00	2013	5 911.90	2 394.20	830.60	627.40	2 057.50
1999	4 124.30	2 180.90	697.80	365.60	880.00	2014	5 995.90	2 392.90	845.30	641.90	2 115.80
2000	4 146.40	2 161.60	690.50	376.50	917.90	2015	6 022.60	2 361.60	843.10	642.30	2 175.70
2001	4 253.80	2 164.10	705.70	399.60	983.70	2016	5 984.10	2 310.50	830.00	636.90	2 207.10
2002	4 339.40	2 157.30	712.20	422.40	1 040.40	2017	5 859.40	2 221.80	797.60	619.70	2 220.30
2003	4 411.60	2 149.90	713.90	438.00	1 109.80	2018	5 653.40	2 065.40	728.90	590.30	2 268.80
2004	4 636.60	2 221.90	736.00	467.30	1 204.00

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	主粮 Staple food	大豆 Soybe- ans	马铃薯 Potato	油料 Oil	棉花 Cotton	烤烟 Flue-cured tobacco	甘蔗 Sugar cane	甜菜 Beet	苹果 Apple	柑 Mandarin	橘 Orange	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997	257.55	72.30	129.90	157.05	336.75	354.60	728.70	282.90	527.40	931.35	542.85	495.45
1998	294.60	83.70	230.10	180.60	358.95	458.10	810.90	451.20	623.10	1 020.80	559.05	492.00
1999	299.25	84.00	254.85	205.35	365.40	470.55	758.25	360.60	612.60	1 209.50	1282.05	558.15
2000	304.50	81.00	265.50	216.00	397.50	519.00	823.50	376.50	682.50	1 117.50	721.50	580.65
2002	313.50	100.50	354.00	216.00	435.00	508.50	666.00	370.50	498.00	1 950.00	1287.00	588.60
2003	303.00	108.00	423.00	219.00	456.00	510.00	742.50	354.00	619.50	2 860.50	1360.50	652.50
2004	287.10	107.40	321.30	201.60	382.50	386.70	645.90	244.05	617.10	1 482.90	1342.50	585.75
2005	304.35	111.75	313.80	217.35	390.15	396.75	654.75	278.25	749.70	865.05	1060.65	545.70
2006	314.40	112.35	363.75	235.35	417.90	521.55	790.50	339.90	766.65	604.05	573.60	628.05
2007	325.05	121.20	360.45	244.65	450.30	515.70	870.15	348.30	815.25	699.30	899.40	651.30
2008	319.20	118.65	359.40	235.65	388.65	505.35	690.75	354.30	868.95	760.65	736.80	573.75
2009	326.10	127.05	287.25	247.80	424.95	489.75	715.95	381.45	864.45	658.50	654.30	640.95
2010	344.70	132.30	436.80	260.85	452.25	517.05	824.40	409.05	976.65	1 047.20	662.25	700.95
2011	345.45	128.25	349.35	250.95	460.65	512.70	848.10	412.80	991.50	1 052.60	717.60	746.25
2012	348.30	137.70	414.00	251.55	478.05	529.05	872.55	427.50	902.55	997.20	665.40	697.65
2013	351.60	129.00	408.00	255.60	485.40	523.05	923.55	440.10	957.90	936.75	683.10	671.10
2014	361.20	128.55	381.75	272.25	546.60	518.10	930.60	462.90	1010.25	968.85	818.25	532.50
2015	361.65	125.10	357.45	280.80	570.15	513.75	924.75	472.05	969.90	1 012.80	740.85	517.80
2016	373.95	128.10	388.05	271.95	530.40	516.45	959.10	543.75	864.00	1 059.60	690.90	578.70
2017	376.05	127.65	409.50	275.70	531.75	509.10	906.90	571.65	853.50	1 106.85	806.10	583.35
2018	373.65	127.05	431.10	278.40	542.25	517.50	846.75	566.25	829.65	1 012.20	655.80	634.20
平均	327.86	113.89	344.73	236.88	447.69	490.16	806.41	402.29	790.53	1 112.10	831.45	602.64
Mean

年份 Year	全国平均 National average	北部高原地区 Northern plateau	东北地区 Northeast area	西北地区 Northwest area	西南地区 Southwest area	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaihai area	长江中下游地区 The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River	华南地区 South China	青藏地区 Qinghai- Tibet area
1997	258.54	191.95	204.72	208.08	193.46	312.65	288.60	307.85	126.79
1998	262.27	197.75	208.76	211.17	192.99	322.59	295.36	296.69	119.30
1999	263.75	204.55	211.48	198.65	187.60	330.89	293.21	305.40	124.78
2000	265.28	203.88	196.36	201.49	197.61	334.64	291.96	319.91	123.61
2001	273.19	217.34	184.20	210.63	200.19	342.91	307.89	336.92	134.23
2002	280.62	217.20	195.09	215.62	205.02	354.89	311.29	353.60	140.26
2003	289.45	239.79	197.71	224.01	209.20	357.45	323.57	368.45	144.19
2004	301.96	246.92	227.27	236.33	214.97	374.63	330.54	385.13	150.45
2005	306.53	254.44	217.10	246.34	218.69	387.37	335.35	388.08	157.37
2006	313.83	263.56	223.73	259.35	223.39	398.01	339.43	400.71	160.49
2007	332.83	277.65	222.47	265.77	248.20	415.78	362.57	466.40	162.75
2008	335.26	287.04	227.52	275.63	249.34	415.76	364.07	467.21	169.46
2009	340.67	307.30	239.85	276.55	249.73	423.50	363.87	470.13	169.53
2010	346.15	322.41	250.71	288.90	252.81	431.86	361.36	474.57	171.51
2011	351.50	328.47	263.17	298.40	260.02	436.08	364.12	476.61	166.01
2012	357.30	356.72	272.90	308.77	260.48	440.75	365.03	477.81	179.15
2013	359.11	366.36	281.18	317.99	258.04	442.17	362.77	477.83	192.69
2014	362.44	367.58	286.39	344.41	260.69	443.74	360.60	491.63	192.62
2015	361.99	367.14	287.75	346.46	262.80	444.22	356.01	490.42	198.47
2016	359.08	363.77	286.24	339.48	262.36	441.01	350.68	493.75	179.44
2017	352.27	348.49	250.82	347.75	262.21	429.87	349.01	553.78	175.44
2018	340.77	340.40	247.94	343.61	250.79	419.10	336.58	514.59	163.10

Research on decomposition of driving factors of chemical fertilizer application intensity in China and control paths

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行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity		行政区 Administration region	化肥施用强度Application intensity
行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018	行政区 Administration region	1997—2018	2018
全国平均National average	318.85	340.77	黑龙江Heilongjiang	161.26	167.38
北京Beijing	483.41	703.28	上海Shanghai	327.56	297.56
天津Tianjin	435.01	393.66	江苏Jiangsu	429.35	388.95
河北Hebei	348.08	381.11	浙江Zhejiang	340.55	393.19
山西Shanxi	270.36	308.28	安徽Anhui	335.19	355.49
内蒙古Inner Mongolia	211.24	252.38	福建Fujian	512.95	701.83
辽宁Liaoning	331.40	344.66	江西Jiangxi	234.07	221.75
吉林Jilin	326.71	375.44	山东Shandong	412.93	379.44
河南Henan	407.74	468.63	贵州Guizhou	168.47	163.40
湖北Hubei	395.50	371.94	云南Yunnan	264.79	315.49
湖南Hunan	267.06	299.10	西藏Tibet	178.99	192.31
广东Guangdong	463.09	540.50	陕西Shaanxi	417.98	561.23
广西Guangxi	351.34	426.96	甘肃Gansu	203.66	220.48
海南Hainan	479.47	678.92	青海Qinghai	150.05	148.93
重庆Chongqing	245.60	278.33	宁夏Ningxia	238.22	329.73
四川Sichuan	241.48	244.61	新疆Xinjiang	327.62	420.17

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate					效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables	合计 Total	烤烟 Tobacco	甘蔗 Sugarcane	水果 Fruit	蔬菜 Vegetables
1997—1998	-7.38	-52.04	7.53	-19.18	56.32	107.38	22.77	14.57	75.35	-5.32
1998—1999	13.62	0.13	-2.08	2.16	13.42	86.38	0.38	-1.82	66.11	21.70
1999—2000	59.34	1.24	-4.35	11.81	50.63	-58.34	2.82	3.80	-80.01	15.06
2000—2002	32.88	-0.62	3.11	5.16	25.22	67.12	-0.24	-3.83	68.75	2.44
2002—2003	20.70	-0.31	0.43	11.51	9.06	79.30	0.03	1.83	58.22	19.23
2003—2004	-0.07	0.02	0.48	-6.01	5.48	100.07	2.37	2.27	75.44	19.99
2004—2005	-3.81	-1.08	0.86	-4.7	1.11	103.81	-0.39	-0.39	81.77	22.82
2005—2006	22.09	6.62	-4.25	-25.88	45.59	77.91	-15.94	-20.32	269.11	-154.95
2006—2007	-43.34	-0.50	9.51	-12.58	-40.77	143.34	-0.04	8.13	109.37	26.29
2007—2008	-67.91	-5.07	-11.07	-16.27	-35.5	167.90	1.18	28.56	15.60	122.57
2008—2009	-5.02	-1.13	-13.03	17.91	-8.77	105.02	-4.11	9.10	-140.47	240.5
2009—2010	-12.17	-0.45	-0.93	4.33	-15.12	112.17	1.25	6.65	67.26	37.01
2010—2011	47.44	2.31	-0.45	-3.40	48.97	52.56	-0.27	1.89	13.22	37.71
2011—2012	-38.67	-5.00	-2.66	-5.32	-25.68	138.67	-2.05	-3.67	64.49	79.92
2012—2013	-16.59	-1.88	2.54	15.42	-32.68	116.59	2.75	-27.22	-14.53	155.59
2013—2014	-27.54	5.69	5.31	-29.33	-9.22	127.54	0.49	-0.83	-58.62	186.50
2014—2015	51.02	6.33	13.88	39.51	-8.70	48.98	0.46	0.77	23.67	24.07
2015—2016	-96.91	-5.39	-16.49	-65.71	-9.33	196.91	0.74	11.54	-93.86	278.49
2016—2017	45.55	-3.33	-2.32	23.42	27.78	54.45	-0.79	-6.92	53.36	8.79
2017—2018	108.65	-4.28	3.75	74.75	34.43	-8.65	0.97	-9.26	-114.25	113.89
1997—2018	66.74	-5.48	-0.44	26.23	46.43	33.26	2.55	1.98	8.85	19.88

年份 Year	结构驱动率Structure drive rate			效率驱动率Efficiency drive rate
年份 Year	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China	合计 Total	黄淮海地区 Huanghuaiha area	华南地区 South China
1997—1998	565.13	49.45	515.69	-465.13	330.89	-796.03
1998—1999	55.98	25.56	30.42	44.02	13.55	30.47
1999—2000	68.12	30.96	37.17	31.88	3.53	28.35
2000—2001	50.16	9.58	40.57	49.84	13.02	36.83
2001—2002	53.66	13.89	39.77	46.34	18.71	27.62
2002—2003	59.19	21.16	38.04	40.81	3.18	37.63
2003—2004	21.67	1.45	20.22	78.33	26.22	52.11
2004—2005	31.86	-28.97	60.83	68.14	45.80	22.34
2005—2006	36.94	-10.25	47.19	63.06	17.44	45.62
2006—2007	33.03	-3.75	36.78	66.97	6.79	60.18
2007—2008	89.77	-12.57	102.34	10.23	-0.10	10.33
2008—2009	22.35	7.19	15.16	77.65	39.68	37.97
2009—2010	32.59	10.33	22.26	67.41	28.39	39.02
2010—2011	62.20	11.74	50.46	16.80	21.00	-4.20
2011—2012	69.90	20.08	49.82	30.10	18.09	12.00
2012—2013	97.97	71.77	26.20	2.03	1.95	0.08
2013—2014	-61.39	-198.57	137.18	161.39	7.06	154.33
2014—2015	78.30	4.22	74.08	21.70	-3.88	25.58
2015—2016	73.50	-1.60	75.10	26.50	-15.21	41.71
2016—2017	-102.90	-125.86	22.95	202.90	-13.35	216.25
2017—2018	-58.19	-0.69	-57.50	158.19	11.56	146.63
1997—2018	50.58	-9.86	60.45	49.42	10.65	38.77

变量 Variable	水果Fruit
变量 Variable	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P	系数 Coefficient	标准误 Standard error	P
人均GDP GDP per capita	0.661^*	0.318	0.055	0.381^***	0.127	0.009
人均GDP的二次方 Quadratic of GDP per capita	-11.667^**	5.346	0.045	-5.536^**	2.159	0.022
消费结构升级 Consumption structure upgrade	0.116	0.469	0.808	0.118	0.329	0.725
农业劳动力转移 Agricultural labor transfer	5.641^**	2.200	0.022	3.227^***	0.892	0.003
城镇化发展水平 Urbanization development level	2.897^**	1.460	0.066	-1.345^**	0.583	0.036
常数项 Constant	-4.396	8.974	0.631	3.277	5.680	0.573

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