Risk assessment of precipitation during rape's flower period in Zhejiang Province

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2018.10.02

›› 2018, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (10): 1624-1629.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2018.10.02

• Crop Science • Previous Articles Next Articles

Risk assessment of precipitation during rape's flower period in Zhejiang Province

LIU Rongrong¹, WU Lihong², WANG Zengwu³

1. Zhejiang Meteorological Information and Network Center, Hangzhou 310017, China;
2. Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China;
3. Chengdu University of Information and Technology, Chengdu 610025, China

Received:2018-06-19 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-11-02

Abstract

Abstract: Precipitation during flower period and yield of rape in 66 counties of Zhejiang Province from 1971 to 2014 was used in this paper. Based on the risk assessment model with information diffusion theory, exceeding probability at different levels of rape's flower period precipitation were calculated and analyzed. Risk of drought and flood in rape's flower period was assessed. Relationship between the risk of rape's flower period precipitation at different levels and the change of rape's yield was also analyzed. Results showed that risk of serious excess precipitation in rape's flower period was mainly located in southwestern Zhejiang. On the other side, risk of scarce precipitation in the same period was mainly located in Zhejiang coastal islands and some counties and cities of Ningbo. The precipitation shortage could be improved by irrigation. However, yield of rape was significantly correlated with the excess of precipitation. 300 mm precipitation was a thresholds value which determined whether the output reduced during rape's flower period. All these results above could provide scientific basis for the rational distribution of rape and agricultural insurance policy.

Key words: rape's flower period, precipitation, risk assessment, rape's yield

CLC Number:

LIU Rongrong, WU Lihong, WANG Zengwu. Risk assessment of precipitation during rape's flower period in Zhejiang Province[J]. , 2018, 30(10): 1624-1629.

References

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Risk assessment of precipitation during rape's flower period in Zhejiang Province

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