西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20250693

浙江农业学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (7): 1355-1365.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20250693

西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证

冯玥¹(), 何卫军¹, 曹静², 孙挺², 顾宏辉³, 陈君⁴, 吴其褒⁵, 张文宇²^,^*(), 吴早贵¹^,^*()

¹ 浙江省种子管理总站, 浙江杭州 310020
² 江苏省农业科学院无锡分院, 江苏无锡 214174
³ 浙江省农业科学院蔬菜研究所, 浙江杭州 310021
⁴ 台州市椒江区种子事务站, 浙江台州 318000
⁵ 三门县农业技术推广中心, 浙江三门 317100

收稿日期:2025-11-10 出版日期:2026-07-25 发布日期:2026-08-20
作者简介:冯玥,从事农作物品种管理工作。E-mail:806365263@qq.com
通讯作者: *张文宇,E-mail: research@wwery.cn; 吴早贵,E-mail: wuzgmail@163.com
基金资助:
农业农村部国家西蓝花育种联合攻关(2018—2026);浙江省农业(蔬菜)新品种选育重大科技专项(2021C02065-4-1)

Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica

FENG Yue¹(), HE Weijun¹, CAO Jing², SUN Ting², GU Honghui³, CHEN Jun⁴, WU Qibao⁵, ZHANG Wenyu²^,^*(), WU Zaogui¹^,^*()

¹ Zhejiang Provincial Seed Management Station, Hangzhou 310020, China
² Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences Wuxi Branch, Wuxi 214174, Jiangsu, China
³ Institute of Vegetables, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China
⁴ Jiaojiang Seed Affairs Station, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China
⁵ Sanmen Agricultural Technology Extension Center, Sanmen 317100, Zhejiang, China

Received:2025-11-10 Published:2026-07-25 Online:2026-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 西蓝花现蕾期对产量、品质形成、茬口与播期管理具有重要影响。为精准预测不同西蓝花品种从定植至现蕾所需的时间,本研究基于浙江省椒江和三门2个试验点的多年气象资料,以及不同品种西蓝花定植与现蕾期观测数据,构建了基于温度和光周期的西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型。通过Sobol敏感性分析,识别关键参数及其交互作用,并利用网格搜索与交替迭代策略对定植至现蕾所需的潜在热量单元(G_v)、温度敏感性(S_T)、最适温度(T_o)和光周期敏感性(G)进行了优化。椒江试验点和三门试验点数据分别用于参数校准和模型验证。结果表明,不同品种对温度和光周期的敏感性存在显著差异,模型在参数校准中的平均均方根误差为2.78 d,在验证中的平均均方根误差为1.33 d,可较准确地模拟西蓝花现蕾期,并为新品种选育、生产管理优化和区域适应性评价提供理论依据。

关键词: 西蓝花, 现蕾期, 温度, 光周期, 模拟模型

Abstract:

The floral initiation stage of broccoli significantly impacts yield, quality formation, cropping sequence and sowing date management. To accurately predict the time required from transplanting to floral initiation for different broccoli varieties, this study constructed a temperature- and photoperiod-based simulation model of the broccoli floral initiation stage using multi-year meteorological data from two experimental sites in Jiaojiang and Sanmen, Zhejiang Province, together with observational data on the transplanting and floral initiation dates of different varieties. Key parameters and their interactions were identified through Sobol sensitivity analysis, and the potential heat unit required from transplanting to floral initiation (G_v), temperature sensitivity (S_T), optimum temperature (T_o) and photoperiod sensitivity (G) were optimized using a grid search and alternating iteration strategy. Data from the Jiaojiang site were used for parameter calibration, and data from the Sanmen site were used for model validation. The results showed significant differences among varieties in sensitivity to temperature and photoperiod. The average root mean square error of the model was 2.78 d in calibration and 1.33 d in validation, indicating that the model could simulate the floral initiation stage of broccoli with acceptable accuracy and provide a theoretical basis for new variety breeding, production management optimization and regional adaptability assessment.

Key words: broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica), floral initiation, temperature, photoperiod, simulation model

中图分类号:

S635.3

冯玥, 何卫军, 曹静, 孙挺, 顾宏辉, 陈君, 吴其褒, 张文宇, 吴早贵. 西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证[J]. 浙江农业学报, 2026, 38(7): 1355-1365.

FENG Yue, HE Weijun, CAO Jing, SUN Ting, GU Honghui, CHEN Jun, WU Qibao, ZHANG Wenyu, WU Zaogui. Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2026, 38(7): 1355-1365.

图/表 6

表1 模型参数取值范围与Sobol敏感性分析结果

Table 1 Parameter ranges and sensitivity indices of the model parameters

参数 Parameter	参数意义 Parameter description	参数范围 Parameter range	一阶敏感性指数 First-order sensitivity index	总效应敏感性指数 Total sensitivity index
S_Dc	临界日照时数 Critical sunshine duration	8~14 h	0.398 6	0.593 1
G	光周期敏感性 Photoperiod sensitivity	0.000 1~1	-0.007 3	0.173 4
G_v	定植至现蕾所需的潜在热量单元 Potential heat units required from transplanting to floral initiation	20~140 ℃·d	0.162 2	0.291 2
S_T	温度敏感性 Temperature sensitivity	0.1~5.0	0.069 7	0.116 0
T_o	最适温度 Optimal temperature	8.0~25.9 ℃	0.065 4	0.151 8
T_b	下限温度 Lower limit of temperature	0~7.9 ℃	0.003 5	0.017 8
T_u	上限温度 Upper limit of temperature	26~40 ℃	0.013 5	0.073 1

图1 不同西蓝花品种的定植至现蕾的天数与生长期平均温度、平均日照时数的关系

Fig.1 Relationship between the days from transplanting to floral initiation and the corresponding average temperature and sunshine duration during the growing period for various broccoli varieties

图2 模型参数对热效应和光周期效应的影响

Fig.2 Influence of model parameters on thermal and photoperiodic effects

图3 模型参数间的二阶交互效应 Tb,下限温度;To,最适温度;Tu,上限温度;ST,温度敏感性;Gv,定植至现蕾所需的潜在热量单元;G,光周期敏感性;SDc,临界日照时数。

Fig.3 Second-order interaction effects among model parameters Tb, Base temperature; To, Optimal temperature; Tu, Upper threshold temperature; ST, Temperature sensitivity; Gv,Potential heat units required from transplanting to floral initiation; G, Photoperiod sensitivity; SDc, Critical sunshine duration.

表2 西蓝花品种特异性参数取值

Table 2 Cultivar-specific parameter values for broccoli

品种Variety	G_v/(℃·d)	G	S_T	T_o/℃
绿雄90 Lyuxiong 90	42	0.316 2	2.074 9	15
耐寒优秀Naihanyouxiu	35	0.316 2	0.672 7	22
台绿5号Tailyu 5	70	0.000 1	0.993 5	9
台绿6号Tailyu 6	56	0.100 0	1.600 0	19
炎秀Yanxiu	33	0.316 2	2.902 8	18
浙青100 Zheqing 100	56	0.100 0	2.074 9	19
浙青161 Zheqing 161	30	0.562 3	1.233 8	19
浙青227 Zheqing 227	29	0.562 3	1.345 4	18
中青319 Zhongqing 319	75	0.000 1	0.141 4	19

图4 不同西蓝花品种从定植到现蕾的天数的观测值与模拟值比较

Fig.4 Comparison of observed and simulated days from transplanting to floral initiation for different broccoli varieties

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西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证

Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica oleracea var. italica

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